2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns

Friday, November 4, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 3–0@PHX 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	102	108	+6
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	115	106	−9

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1366	1621
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+326
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−4.6	+8.3
Games played this season	7	7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	105.7	113.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.3	108.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	53.0	8.9
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1366PHX1621

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1366

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
This season's 7 games: +53.8

W@SAC115–108+14.2
WPHX113–111+8.4
W@LAL106–104+7.9
WDEN135–110+27.3
LMIA98–119−9.7
WHOU125–111+9.6
LMEM106–111−3.9

PHX1621

Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
This season's 7 games: +47.0

WDAL107–105+3.9
L@POR111–113−8.4
W@LAC112–95+16.4
WGSW134–105+20.1
WNOP124–111+7.4
WHOU124–109+2.7
WMIN116–107+4.9

Season scoring marginPOR−4.6PHX+8.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−4.6

Scores 114.0, allows 110.6 over 7 games: +3.4 a game.

35% this season (+3.4) + 65% last season (−8.9) = −4.6

PHX+8.3

Scores 118.3, allows 106.4 over 7 games: +11.9 a game.

35% this season (+11.9) + 65% last season (+6.3) = +8.3

Offensive rating, last 10POR105.7PHX113.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

POR105.7scored, −5.9 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	53.3%	−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.8%	12.3%	−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.4%	23.9%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.208	+0.4
Everything else			−0.4

PHX113.5scored, +1.9 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	53.3%	+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.3%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.2%	23.9%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.208	−0.3
Everything else			+0.5

Defensive rating, last 10POR114.3PHX108.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

POR114.3allowed, +2.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	53.3%	−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.3%	±0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.4%	23.9%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.213	0.208	−0.1
Everything else			+0.7

PHX108.3allowed, −3.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	53.3%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.3%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.5%	23.9%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.208	−1.0
Everything else			+2.5

Pace, last 10average 97.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 98.6 and PHX 97.0 → average 97.8 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingPOR53.0PHX8.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR53.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Damian Lillard	31.0	34.9	5
Anfernee Simons	22.0	36.7	7

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-04 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHX8.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Cameron Payne	8.9	16.0	7

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-04 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysPHX3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Nov 2 against MEM.

PHX3days

Last played Nov 1 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 2	MEM	106–111	36-89	13-33	21-26	20	16	106.0	108.8	101.0
Oct 28	HOU	125–111	48-90	13-35	16-20	15	11	123.8	107.8	102.0
Oct 26	MIA	98–119	34-78	12-37	18-26	19	11	101.0	124.0	96.5
Oct 24	DEN	135–110	48-83	16-35	23-31	8	9	140.6	114.6	96.0
Oct 23	@LAL	106–104	37-84	10-27	22-27	19	13	103.9	103.0	101.5
Oct 21	PHX	113–111	36-82	10-29	31-36	18	13	103.7	102.8	98.3
Oct 19	@SAC	115–108	39-88	11-28	26-33	11	11	113.9	106.9	101.0
Apr 10	UTA	80–111	31-83	9-34	9-12	14	5	81.6	112.1	98.5
Apr 8	@DAL	78–128	31-83	7-32	9-12	16	5	81.3	128.0	98.0
Apr 7	@NOP	94–127	36-69	11-31	11-13	22	3	101.1	135.1	93.5

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 1	MIN	116–107	41-89	17-43	17-22	9	7	117.2	108.1	99.0
Oct 30	HOU	124–109	45-84	12-40	22-30	11	10	126.5	111.2	98.0
Oct 28	NOP	124–111	48-92	10-33	18-20	12	14	125.3	112.1	99.0
Oct 25	GSW	134–105	47-92	12-29	28-34	13	14	128.8	101.9	103.5
Oct 23	@LAC	112–95	43-93	15-42	11-12	12	13	114.3	97.9	97.5
Oct 21	@POR	111–113	43-94	10-27	15-21	16	9	102.8	103.7	98.3
Oct 19	DAL	107–105	40-85	8-22	19-22	12	8	113.8	110.5	94.5
May 15	DAL	90–123	33-87	12-34	12-18	12	15	97.8	132.3	92.5
May 12	@DAL	86–113	31-78	6-18	18-21	22	13	91.5	120.2	94.0
May 10	DAL	110–80	43-87	12-32	12-16	12	12	117.0	85.1	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

20%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored PHX

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −2 for PHX

12th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

296th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	PHX
Final score	108	106
Field goals	43–85 · 50.6%	36–83 · 43.4%
Three-pointers	10–23 · 43.5%	14–34 · 41.2%
Free throws	12–15 · 80.0%	20–21 · 95.2%
Rebounds	42	39
Assists	30	26
Turnovers	17	17
Steals	6	8
Blocks	3	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	+13	−2	−15
Total points	217	214	−3
POR points	102	108	+6
PHX points	115	106	−9

Recent form before this game