The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

MEM 3–0@UTA 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 47 percent, UTA 53 percent. MEM Grizzlies 47% proj. 121 · final 110 UTA Jazz · home 53% proj. 122 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 121 110 −11
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 122 105 −17

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans UTA

  • Home court+2.1 UTAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.1 MEMElo UTA 1324, MEM 1366; season margin UTA −8.6, MEM −3.5.
  • Recent form+0.6 MEMLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: UTA scores 109.8 and allows 121.7; MEM scores 110.8 and allows 123.6.
  • Rest and schedule+0.3 MEMUTA 1 days of rest, MEM 1. UTA and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: UTA by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

UTA is 1–2, losing by 9 a game on average (scoring 115, allowing 125). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 13.1% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM is 3–0, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 108). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 20% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents rebound 47% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −7, forcing turnovers +1.4. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors UTA; left favors MEM.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −1.1, Recent form −0.6, Rest and schedule −0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, giving +0.4 for UTA. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −1.1 Recent form −0.6 Rest and schedule −0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Projected margin +0.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +0.4. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMEMUTAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13661324 −0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +28 −0.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −3.5−8.6 −0.0
Games played this season 33 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.8109.8 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 123.6121.7 −0.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 105.2 −0.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 11 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueUTA ptsMEM ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)121.7+0.47+2.24−1.77
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)123.6+1.52+0.05+1.47
Season scoring margin (home)-8.6−0.65+0.26−0.90
Season scoring margin (away)-3.5+0.70−0.16+0.87
Elo gap incl. home court27.8−0.88−0.06−0.82
Combined pace, last 10105.2+4.65+5.45−0.80
Elo rating (home)1323.6−0.07+0.69−0.76
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.67−0.06+0.73
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.8−0.01−0.73+0.73
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.14+0.54−0.69
Rest days (home)1.0−0.47+0.01−0.48
Games played (home)3.0+0.54+0.13+0.40
Elo rating (away)1365.8+0.15−0.24+0.39
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04−0.27+0.32
Games played (away)3.0+0.12+0.40−0.28
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.8−0.39−0.15−0.24
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.05+0.23
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.07−0.16
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1366UTA13241.2 pts toward MEM

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1366

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 3 games: +36.2
  • WUTA123–103+12.8
  • W@GSW111–108+9.2
  • W@SAC123–112+14.2

UTA1324

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 3 games: −12.9
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
  • WNOP120–119+4.4
  • LLAL123–132−4.5
Season scoring marginMEM−3.5UTA−8.60.1 pts toward UTA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−3.5

Scores 119.0, allows 107.7 over 3 games: +11.3 a game.

15% this season (+11.3) + 85% last season (−6.1) = −3.5

UTA−8.6

Scores 115.3, allows 124.7 over 3 games: −9.3 a game.

15% this season (−9.3) + 85% last season (−8.4) = −8.6

Offensive rating, last 10MEM110.8UTA109.80.5 pts toward UTA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM110.8scored, −3.8 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.8%26.1%−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.210−0.7
Everything else+2.7

UTA109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.210−0.6
Everything else−2.4
Defensive rating, last 10MEM123.6UTA121.70.3 pts toward MEM

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM123.6allowed, +9.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.3%54.5%−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)47.1%26.1%−9.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.210−0.6
Everything else+6.8

UTA121.7allowed, +7.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.8%54.5%−6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 105.20.8 pts toward MEM

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.9 and UTA 107.5 → average 105.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0UTA0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMEM1 daysUTA1 days0.3 pts toward MEM

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against SAC.

UTA1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@SAC123–11242-9615-4124-271219121.8113.1100.0
Oct 23@GSW111–10840-8615-3916-222518112.1108.099.5
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0
Apr 5@MIL115–13138-9217-4622-28149112.7129.7101.5
Apr 3TOR96–12834-8511-4217-2620893.2125.5102.5
Apr 1NYK119–13039-7616-3625-30133126.6136.894.5

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25LAL123–13246-9510-3521-271720120.6130.7101.5
Oct 23NOP120–11941-8413-3525-331814117.6116.7102.0
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5
Apr 10MEM147–10162-11015-358-17168121.583.5121.0
Apr 7@NOP137–15653-10410-3221-24167112.3127.9122.0
Apr 5@OKC111–14643-10014-3911-151614101.8136.4108.0
Apr 3@HOU106–14043-965-2715-221317102.9138.6102.0
Apr 1DEN117–13044-9512-3717-251210109.3121.5107.0
Mar 30CLE113–12242-8815-2914-20158110.8119.6102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored UTA
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual −5 for UTA
45th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMUTA
Final score110105
Field goals37–85 · 43.5%38–92 · 41.3%
Three-pointers16–37 · 43.2%10–33 · 30.3%
Free throws20–22 · 90.9%19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds4249
Assists2625
Turnovers1213
Steals53
Blocks48

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)+1−5−6
Total points243215−28
MEM points121110−11
UTA points122105−17

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at SAC W 123–112
Oct 23 at GSW W 111–108
Oct 21 vs UTA W 123–103
Apr 12 at HOU L 101–132
Apr 10 at UTA L 101–147

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs LAL L 123–132
Oct 23 vs NOP W 120–119
Oct 21 at MEM L 103–123
Apr 12 at LAL L 107–131
Apr 10 vs MEM W 147–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 21 2026-27 UTA at MEM UTA 103 – 123 MEM
Apr 10 2025-26 MEM at UTA MEM 101 – 147 UTA
Feb 20 2025-26 UTA at MEM UTA 114 – 123 MEM
Dec 23 2025-26 MEM at UTA MEM 137 – 128 UTA
Dec 12 2025-26 UTA at MEM UTA 130 – 126 MEM