2023-24 · Regular Season · Final
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Thursday, April 11, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
HOU 2–1@UTA 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Houston Rockets | 125 | 121 | −4 |
| UTA Utah Jazz (home) | 110 | 124 | +14 |
Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 15.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | HOU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1501 | 1349 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −83 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +0.9 | −5.0 |
| Games played this season | 79 | 79 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 115.5 | 107.5 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 116.9 | 122.2 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 84.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingHOU1501UTA1349
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
HOU1501
- Ended last season at 1333 → started this one at 1374
- First 69 games: +144.0
- Last 10 games: −17.1
- WUTA147–119+9.6
- WPOR110–92+4.2
- W@OKC132–126+12.7
- W@UTA101–100+2.8
- LDAL107–125−15.4
- L@MIN106–113−3.5
- LGSW110–133−18.4
- LMIA104–119−15.4
- L@DAL136–147−4.4
- WORL118–106+10.7
UTA1349
- Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
- First 69 games: −19.4
- Last 10 games: −66.8
- L@DAL97–113−5.3
- L@HOU119–147−9.6
- LDAL105–115−6.9
- LSAS111–118−12.1
- LHOU100–101−2.8
- L@SAC106–127−6.4
- LCLE113–129−9.8
- L@LAC102–131−6.8
- L@GSW110–118−1.9
- LDEN95–111−5.2
Season scoring marginHOU+0.9UTA−5.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
HOU+0.9
Scores 114.2, allows 113.3 over 79 games: +0.9 a game.
UTA−5.0
Scores 115.6, allows 120.7 over 79 games: −5.0 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10HOU115.5UTA107.5
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).
HOU115.5scored, +1.0 vs league
| Factor | HOU | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.2% | 54.8% | −2.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 11.6% | +2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.9% | 24.1% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.201 | 0.195 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.0 |
UTA107.5scored, −7.1 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.8% | 54.8% | −6.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.7% | 11.6% | −3.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 19.4% | 24.1% | −2.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.223 | 0.195 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | +3.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10HOU116.9UTA122.2
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).
HOU116.9allowed, +2.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.8% | −3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.7% | 11.6% | +3.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.5% | 24.1% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.238 | 0.195 | −1.3 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
UTA122.2allowed, +7.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.5% | 54.8% | −7.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 11.6% | −0.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.9% | 24.1% | −2.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.159 | 0.195 | +1.0 | |
| Everything else | +1.9 |
Pace, last 10average 98.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
HOU 98.9 and UTA 98.8 → average 98.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)
Rotation points missingHOU0.0UTA84.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
HOU0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2024-04-11 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
UTA84.0pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 26.7 | 37.2 | 3 |
| John Collins | 23.5 | 25.9 | 4 |
| Collin Sexton | 20.3 | 32.2 | 9 |
| Walker Kessler | 7.9 | 21.9 | 7 |
| Kris Dunn | 5.7 | 20.3 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-04-11 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
RestHOU2 daysUTA2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
HOU2days
Last played Apr 9 against ORL.
UTA2days
Last played Apr 9 against DEN.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
HOU
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | ORL | 118–106 | 45-86 | 15-35 | 13-18 | 12 | 6 | 118.0 | 107.1 | 99.5 |
| Apr 7 | @DAL | 136–147 | 46-93 | 17-41 | 27-35 | 10 | 4 | 120.4 | 131.3 | 101.9 |
| Apr 5 | MIA | 104–119 | 34-90 | 14-44 | 22-25 | 9 | 8 | 105.1 | 119.0 | 99.5 |
| Apr 4 | GSW | 110–133 | 36-86 | 12-40 | 26-30 | 12 | 11 | 110.0 | 134.3 | 99.5 |
| Apr 2 | @MIN | 106–113 | 41-92 | 14-48 | 10-14 | 14 | 12 | 110.4 | 118.9 | 95.5 |
| Mar 31 | DAL | 107–125 | 39-92 | 13-38 | 16-19 | 10 | 12 | 110.3 | 127.6 | 97.5 |
| Mar 29 | @UTA | 101–100 | 35-91 | 13-42 | 18-28 | 10 | 15 | 105.2 | 106.4 | 95.0 |
| Mar 27 | @OKC | 132–126 | 50-104 | 15-43 | 17-23 | 16 | 16 | 116.8 | 112.5 | 101.9 |
| Mar 25 | POR | 110–92 | 37-93 | 12-39 | 24-25 | 8 | 12 | 112.2 | 92.9 | 98.5 |
| Mar 23 | UTA | 147–119 | 54-97 | 27-49 | 12-14 | 9 | 10 | 147.0 | 119.0 | 100.0 |
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | DEN | 95–111 | 36-91 | 10-31 | 13-13 | 14 | 11 | 100.0 | 116.8 | 95.0 |
| Apr 7 | @GSW | 110–118 | 39-83 | 15-35 | 17-21 | 11 | 6 | 114.6 | 122.9 | 96.0 |
| Apr 5 | @LAC | 102–131 | 35-91 | 9-30 | 23-29 | 15 | 6 | 99.0 | 126.0 | 103.5 |
| Apr 2 | CLE | 113–129 | 41-85 | 16-37 | 15-18 | 19 | 4 | 113.0 | 129.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 31 | @SAC | 106–127 | 34-83 | 16-41 | 22-28 | 12 | 9 | 114.0 | 135.1 | 93.5 |
| Mar 29 | HOU | 100–101 | 37-80 | 8-31 | 18-19 | 20 | 10 | 106.4 | 105.2 | 95.0 |
| Mar 27 | SAS | 111–118 | 39-83 | 13-35 | 20-22 | 21 | 5 | 103.7 | 110.3 | 107.0 |
| Mar 25 | DAL | 105–115 | 37-87 | 13-39 | 18-22 | 12 | 11 | 109.4 | 118.6 | 96.5 |
| Mar 23 | @HOU | 119–147 | 40-89 | 11-37 | 28-33 | 10 | 9 | 119.0 | 147.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 21 | @DAL | 97–113 | 38-83 | 4-30 | 17-19 | 18 | 3 | 96.0 | 110.8 | 101.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | HOU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 121 | 124 |
| Field goals | 40–95 · 42.1% | 44–87 · 50.6% |
| Three-pointers | 21–47 · 44.7% | 14–39 · 35.9% |
| Free throws | 20–22 · 90.9% | 22–27 · 81.5% |
| Rebounds | 39 | 49 |
| Assists | 22 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 10 | 14 |
| Steals | 8 | 8 |
| Blocks | 6 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Utah Jazz
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (UTA) | −15 | +3 | +18 |
| Total points | 235 | 245 | +10 |
| HOU points | 125 | 121 | −4 |
| UTA points | 110 | 124 | +14 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 38 | 29 | 29 | 25 | – | 121 |
| UTA | 28 | 36 | 34 | 26 | – | 124 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 2023-24 | HOU at UTA | HOU 101 – 100 UTA |
| Mar 23 2023-24 | UTA at HOU | UTA 119 – 147 HOU |
| Jan 20 2023-24 | UTA at HOU | UTA 126 – 127 HOU |
| Jan 5 2022-23 | UTA at HOU | UTA 131 – 114 HOU |
| Oct 26 2022-23 | HOU at UTA | HOU 101 – 109 UTA |