2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, February 12, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 2–1@UTA 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	121	119	−2
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	111	131	+20

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1590	1363
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−157
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.0	−7.5
Games played this season	51	52
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	122.2	111.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.2	121.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	17.5	18.7
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1590UTA1363

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1590

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
First 41 games: −61.4
Last 10 games: +98.7

WBOS117–96+23.7
W@GSW118–108+11.9
W@CHA112–107+4.6
L@PHI104–118−13.6
W@WAS134–96+9.0
W@NYK128–112+23.8
W@LAC122–97+24.3
WGSW120–112+4.2
WIND124–117+6.7
WUTA132–113+4.1

UTA1363

Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
First 42 games: −8.2
Last 10 games: −25.8

L@MEM103–125−4.4
LMIL110–125−9.0
L@GSW103–114−5.4
LMIN113–138−9.1
WORL113–99+12.2
LIND111–112−2.0
WGSW131–128+6.3
L@PHX127–135−4.0
L@LAC110–130−6.3
L@LAL113–132−4.1

Season scoring marginLAL+1.0UTA−7.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+1.0

Scores 113.2, allows 112.1 over 51 games: +1.0 a game.

UTA−7.5

Scores 111.9, allows 119.4 over 52 games: −7.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL122.2UTA111.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

LAL122.2scored, +9.0 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.8%	54.2%	+9.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	25.0%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.194	+0.9
Everything else			−0.9

UTA111.6scored, −1.6 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.2%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	25.0%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.194	+0.3
Everything else			+0.4

Defensive rating, last 10LAL108.2UTA121.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

LAL108.2allowed, −5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.3%	54.2%	+7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	25.0%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.194	−0.4
Everything else			−0.4

UTA121.8allowed, +8.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.2%	−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.6%	12.2%	−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.4%	25.0%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.194	−0.7
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 99.3 and UTA 100.7 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingLAL17.5UTA18.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL17.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Gabe Vincent	11.1	23.6	7
Dorian Finney-Smith	6.3	26.8	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

UTA18.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Collin Sexton	18.7	25.8	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-12 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Feb 10 against UTA.

UTA2days

Last played Feb 10 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 10	UTA	132–113	50-92	15-42	17-18	11	10	124.5	105.6	106.5
Feb 8	IND	124–117	46-88	11-33	21-23	14	9	122.8	115.8	101.0
Feb 6	GSW	120–112	39-78	13-35	29-36	13	7	117.6	107.7	103.0
Feb 4	@LAC	122–97	45-81	18-37	14-23	14	8	127.1	101.0	96.0
Feb 1	@NYK	128–112	47-81	19-40	15-18	15	3	129.3	114.3	98.5
Jan 30	@WAS	134–96	49-90	15-32	21-22	11	8	132.7	93.2	102.0
Jan 28	@PHI	104–118	37-72	10-33	20-23	22	4	104.0	118.0	100.0
Jan 27	@CHA	112–107	44-86	6-28	18-24	16	11	117.9	111.5	95.5
Jan 25	@GSW	118–108	47-86	10-29	14-17	12	10	121.6	112.5	96.5
Jan 23	BOS	117–96	42-89	15-35	18-20	6	10	124.5	102.1	94.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 10	@LAL	113–132	39-84	12-40	23-27	19	11	105.6	124.5	106.5
Feb 8	@LAC	110–130	39-83	17-43	15-18	19	12	108.9	128.7	101.0
Feb 7	@PHX	127–135	48-117	13-48	18-20	10	24	117.6	125.0	97.8
Feb 5	GSW	131–128	48-92	13-37	22-27	12	12	124.8	120.8	105.5
Feb 3	IND	111–112	39-91	13-37	20-30	18	15	107.8	108.7	103.0
Feb 1	ORL	113–99	39-84	14-35	21-24	16	8	111.9	97.1	101.5
Jan 30	MIN	113–138	39-77	14-34	21-25	15	3	117.7	146.8	95.0
Jan 28	@GSW	103–114	39-76	8-26	17-24	15	4	108.4	117.5	96.0
Jan 27	MIL	110–125	41-100	18-54	10-13	10	13	111.1	126.3	99.0
Jan 25	@MEM	103–125	39-92	12-47	13-16	17	14	102.0	122.5	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner

the forecast favored LAL

22 pts

margin miss

forecast −10, actual +12 for UTA

56th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

145th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	UTA
Final score	119	131
Field goals	41–92 · 44.6%	45–86 · 52.3%
Three-pointers	20–50 · 40.0%	15–41 · 36.6%
Free throws	17–30 · 56.7%	26–33 · 78.8%
Rebounds	45	48
Assists	31	30
Turnovers	14	12
Steals	5	10
Blocks	3	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	−10	+12	+22
Total points	232	250	+18
LAL points	121	119	−2
UTA points	111	131	+20

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	30	26	30	33	–	119
UTA	33	31	40	27	–	131

Recent form before this game