The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

SAS 2–2@UTA 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 85 percent, UTA 15 percent. SAS Spurs 85% proj. 127 · final 117 UTA Jazz · home 15% proj. 112 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 127 117 −10
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 112 111 −1

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 85% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

  • Home court+2.1 UTAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+12.2 SASElo UTA 1316, SAS 1685; season margin UTA −8.4, SAS +7.9.
  • Recent form+5.3 SASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: UTA scores 109.1 and allows 120.7; SAS scores 114.0 and allows 108.6.
  • Player availability+0.3 UTAUTA without Jaren Jackson Jr. (16 ppg). The effect points toward UTA, the team missing players: a quirk of the model, not basketball logic.

Together: SAS by 15, a 85% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 2–2, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 110). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.3. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA is 1–3, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 121). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.2. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.1. Jaren Jackson Jr. (16 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors UTA; left favors SAS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −12.2, Recent form −5.3, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving −14.7 for UTA. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −12.2 Recent form −5.3 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin −14.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −14.7. The 85% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSASUTAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16851316 −2.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −299 −7.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.9−8.4 −2.0
Games played this season 44 +0.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.0109.1 −0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.6120.7 −2.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.6 −2.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.016.3 +0.3
Rest days 12 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueUTA ptsSAS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-298.9−3.07+4.83−7.91
Combined pace, last 10102.6+3.90+6.02−2.11
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)120.7+0.21+2.00−1.79
Elo rating (home)1315.8−0.18+1.11−1.28
Elo rating (away)1684.7−1.47−0.29−1.17
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.6−1.17−0.09−1.08
Season scoring margin (home)-8.4−0.63+0.41−1.05
Season scoring margin (away)7.9−0.67+0.31−0.98
Rotation points missing (home)16.3+0.76+0.06+0.69
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.1−0.66−0.20−0.46
Rotation points missing (away)0.0+0.05+0.44−0.39
Games played (home)4.0+0.23−0.05+0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.07+0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.0−0.04−0.19+0.14
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04−0.11+0.14
Games played (away)4.0+0.07+0.14−0.08
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.00+0.06
Rest days (home)2.0−0.04+0.01−0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1685UTA131610.4 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1685

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
  2. This season's 4 games: −18.6
  • LOKC104–116−15.8
  • LHOU110–114−11.1
  • W@DAL122–106+5.7
  • WSAC130–103+2.6

UTA1316

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 4 games: −20.7
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
  • WNOP120–119+4.4
  • LLAL123–132−4.5
  • LMEM105–110−7.8
Season scoring marginSAS+7.9UTA−8.41.8 pts toward SAS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+7.9

Scores 116.5, allows 109.8 over 4 games: +6.8 a game.

20% this season (+6.8) + 80% last season (+8.2) = +7.9

UTA−8.4

Scores 112.8, allows 121.0 over 4 games: −8.3 a game.

20% this season (−8.3) + 80% last season (−8.4) = −8.4

Offensive rating, last 10SAS114.0UTA109.10.3 pts toward SAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS114.0scored, −0.6 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.5%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.1
Everything else+1.6

UTA109.1scored, −5.5 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.5%−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.210−0.5
Everything else−2.6
Defensive rating, last 10SAS108.6UTA120.72.9 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS108.6allowed, −6.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%54.5%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.210+0.8
Everything else+0.1

UTA120.7allowed, +6.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.6%54.5%−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210−0.4
Everything else−0.0
Pace, last 10average 102.62.1 pts toward SAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 97.8 and UTA 107.3 → average 102.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0UTA16.30.3 pts toward UTA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

UTA16.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaren Jackson Jr.16.226.14

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysUTA2 days0.1 pts toward UTA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against SAC.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 26 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27SAC130–10349-9017-3715-19139130.0103.0100.0
Oct 24@DAL122–10648-10115-4211-161215118.4103.9102.5
Oct 23HOU110–11440-8712-3718-25159112.2117.597.5
Oct 20OKC104–11636-9310-3722-251310102.0113.7102.0
Jun 10@NYK106–10736-8617-4317-201112112.8115.193.5
Jun 8@NYK115–11139-8412-3425-3286123.7119.493.0
Jun 5NYK104–10537-7811-2919-27165105.1108.298.0
Jun 3NYK95–10532-8911-4320-25131496.0105.099.5
May 30@OKC111–10340-8817-4014-191215120.7109.693.0
May 28OKC118–9141-8815-4121-251211119.291.099.5

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26MEM105–11038-9210-3319-251314104.0110.0100.5
Oct 25LAL123–13246-9510-3521-271720120.6130.7101.5
Oct 23NOP120–11941-8413-3525-331814117.6116.7102.0
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5
Apr 10MEM147–10162-11015-358-17168121.583.5121.0
Apr 7@NOP137–15653-10410-3221-24167112.3127.9122.0
Apr 5@OKC111–14643-10014-3911-151614101.8136.4108.0
Apr 3@HOU106–14043-965-2715-221317102.9138.6102.0
Apr 1DEN117–13044-9512-3717-251210109.3121.5107.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
85%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
SAS was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast −15, actual −6 for UTA
144th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.16 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASUTA
Final score117111
Field goals44–101 · 43.6%39–92 · 42.4%
Three-pointers12–38 · 31.6%15–39 · 38.5%
Free throws17–21 · 81.0%18–19 · 94.7%
Rebounds5153
Assists3024
Turnovers1119
Steals143
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)−15−6+9
Total points239228−11
SAS points127117−10
UTA points112111−1

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 vs SAC W 130–103
Oct 24 at DAL W 122–106
Oct 23 vs HOU L 110–114
Oct 20 vs OKC L 104–116
Jun 10 at NYK L 106–107

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs MEM L 105–110
Oct 25 vs LAL L 123–132
Oct 23 vs NOP W 120–119
Oct 21 at MEM L 103–123
Apr 12 at LAL L 107–131

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 22 2025-26 SAS at UTA SAS 126 – 109 UTA
Jan 19 2025-26 UTA at SAS UTA 110 – 123 SAS
Dec 27 2025-26 UTA at SAS UTA 127 – 114 SAS
Nov 26 2024-25 SAS at UTA SAS 128 – 115 UTA
Nov 21 2024-25 UTA at SAS UTA 118 – 126 SAS