2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, March 25, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

WAS 8–1@UTA 9–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	116	133	+17
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	118	110	−8

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1243	1309
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+136
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.6	−7.6
Games played this season	71	72
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.4	114.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	126.2	120.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	51.3	72.8
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1243UTA1309

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1243

Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
First 61 games: −18.0
Last 10 games: −39.7

LUTA112–122−12.3
L@NOP118–138−6.7
L@MIA129–150−2.6
L@ORL131–136−1.2
L@BOS100–111−1.1
LGSW117–125−5.1
LDET117–130−2.7
LDET95–117−3.8
LOKC111–132−2.3
L@NYK113–145−1.9

UTA1309

Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
First 62 games: −33.5
Last 10 games: +4.0

W@WAS122–112+12.3
L@MIL99–113−6.3
WGSW119–116+8.2
LNYK117–134−4.5
L@POR114–124−3.8
L@SAC111–116−4.7
L@MIN111–147−5.7
WMIL128–96+23.6
LPHI116–126−7.0
LTOR127–143−8.1

Season scoring marginWAS−11.6UTA−7.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−11.6

Scores 112.5, allows 124.1 over 71 games: −11.6 a game.

UTA−7.6

Scores 117.4, allows 125.1 over 72 games: −7.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS110.4UTA114.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

WAS110.4scored, −4.2 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.5%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.8%	12.2%	−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			−2.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

UTA114.2scored, −0.5 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	54.5%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+0.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10WAS126.2UTA120.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

WAS126.2allowed, +11.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.272	0.210	−1.8
Everything else			−4.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

UTA120.4allowed, +5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.5%	−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−1.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 102.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 102.5 and UTA 102.0 → average 102.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingWAS51.3UTA72.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS51.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Trae Young	15.2	20.7	5
Tre Johnson	12.2	23.0	8
Tristan Vukcevic	12.0	16.8	8
Alex Sarr	11.8	21.0	6

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-25 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

UTA72.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Brice Sensabaugh	24.9	27.7	8
Isaiah Collier	17.6	26.2	5
Keyonte George	17.0	24.5	3
Kyle Filipowski	13.3	26.5	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS3 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS3days

Last played Mar 22 against NYK.

UTA2days

Last played Mar 23 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 22	@NYK	113–145	43-89	18-47	9-13	14	8	113.0	145.0	100.0
Mar 21	OKC	111–132	41-91	16-39	13-18	15	9	111.0	130.7	100.5
Mar 19	DET	95–117	36-82	15-38	8-12	19	6	96.0	118.2	99.0
Mar 17	DET	117–130	43-87	16-37	15-19	13	7	114.7	127.5	102.0
Mar 16	GSW	117–125	40-78	13-34	24-29	21	7	112.5	122.5	103.0
Mar 14	@BOS	100–111	37-84	15-39	11-17	13	9	101.0	113.3	98.5
Mar 12	@ORL	131–136	48-105	14-46	21-24	15	14	114.9	117.2	104.2
Mar 10	@MIA	129–150	46-89	15-36	22-29	23	4	108.4	126.1	119.0
Mar 8	@NOP	118–138	41-91	14-42	22-27	17	–	113.5	131.4	104.5
Mar 5	UTA	112–122	36-77	18-42	22-32	19	–	119.1	129.8	94.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 23	TOR	127–143	39-83	13-36	36-43	15	8	115.5	131.2	109.5
Mar 21	PHI	116–126	39-96	9-40	29-31	8	9	112.6	123.5	102.5
Mar 19	MIL	128–96	48-89	18-48	14-20	13	6	128.0	96.0	100.0
Mar 18	@MIN	111–147	40-93	13-39	18-26	23	11	101.8	133.6	109.5
Mar 15	@SAC	111–116	41-86	12-36	17-25	15	8	106.7	112.6	103.5
Mar 13	@POR	114–124	42-92	13-30	17-22	18	5	107.5	115.9	106.5
Mar 11	NYK	117–134	42-87	18-36	15-19	15	9	118.2	138.1	98.0
Mar 9	GSW	119–116	40-83	12-34	27-29	17	–	121.4	118.4	98.0
Mar 7	@MIL	99–113	31-90	12-49	25-29	11	–	100.0	115.3	98.5
Mar 5	@WAS	122–112	47-92	15-35	13-18	11	–	129.8	119.1	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored UTA

25 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −23 for UTA

257th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

109th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	UTA
Final score	133	110
Field goals	52–94 · 55.3%	45–96 · 46.9%
Three-pointers	13–32 · 40.6%	7–29 · 24.1%
Free throws	16–24 · 66.7%	13–25 · 52.0%
Rebounds	56	40
Assists	27	34
Turnovers	18	14
Steals	12	11
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	+2	−23	−25
Total points	234	243	+9
WAS points	116	133	+17
UTA points	118	110	−8

Recent form before this game