The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 3:00 PM ET

POR 3–1@UTA 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 72 percent, UTA 28 percent. POR Trail Blazers 72% proj. 126 · final 112 UTA Jazz · home 28% proj. 118 · final 90
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 126 112 −14
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 118 90 −28

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans POR

  • Home court+2.1 UTAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.6 PORElo UTA 1314, POR 1517; season margin UTA −8.3, POR +1.0.
  • Recent form+2.5 PORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: UTA scores 108.4 and allows 119.4; POR scores 111.6 and allows 114.5.

Together: POR by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

POR is 3–1, winning by 9 a game on average (scoring 123, allowing 114). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.1. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. Ja Morant (16 ppg) is out.

UTA is 1–4, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 120). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.8, offensive rebounding +1.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.2. Jaren Jackson Jr. (16 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors UTA; left favors POR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −7.6, Recent form −2.5, Rest and schedule +0.3, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.2, giving −7.2 for UTA. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −7.6 Recent form −2.5 Rest and schedule +0.3 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin −7.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −7.2. The 72% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPORUTAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15171314 −1.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −133 −5.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.0−8.3 −1.2
Games played this season 45 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.6108.4 +0.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.5119.4 −1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.7 −1.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 15.816.3 +0.3
Rest days 23 +0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueUTA ptsPOR ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-133.0−1.53+3.71−5.23
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.4+0.29+2.01−1.72
Combined pace, last 10102.7+4.58+5.86−1.29
Elo rating (home)1314.0−0.12+1.16−1.27
Season scoring margin (home)-8.3−0.43+0.39−0.82
Rotation points missing (home)16.3+0.65+0.02+0.62
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.5+0.42−0.04+0.46
Season scoring margin (away)1.0−0.20+0.23−0.43
Rotation points missing (away)15.8+0.05+0.42−0.37
Rest days (home)3.0+0.28−0.01+0.29
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.6−0.09−0.38+0.29
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.4−0.53−0.30−0.24
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.07+0.20
Elo rating (away)1516.9+0.12+0.00+0.12
Games played (home)5.0+0.01−0.10+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.04−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Games played (away)4.0+0.15+0.17−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1517UTA13146.4 pts toward POR

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1517

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
  2. This season's 4 games: +6.1
  • WPHX124–83+22.0
  • W@SAC128–120+6.0
  • W@LAL136–129+12.2
  • LMEM103–124−34.1

UTA1314

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 5 games: −22.6
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
  • WNOP120–119+4.4
  • LLAL123–132−4.5
  • LMEM105–110−7.8
  • LSAS111–117−1.9
Season scoring marginPOR+1.0UTA−8.31.2 pts toward POR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+1.0

Scores 122.8, allows 114.0 over 4 games: +8.8 a game.

20% this season (+8.8) + 80% last season (−1.0) = +1.0

UTA−8.3

Scores 112.4, allows 120.2 over 5 games: −7.8 a game.

25% this season (−7.8) + 75% last season (−8.4) = −8.3

Offensive rating, last 10POR111.6UTA108.4no effect on the margin

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR111.6scored, −3.0 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.5%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210−0.3
Everything else−0.7

UTA108.4scored, −6.2 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.3%26.1%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210−0.4
Everything else−2.4
Defensive rating, last 10POR114.5UTA119.41.3 pts toward POR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR114.5allowed, −0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.3

UTA119.4allowed, +4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.8%54.5%−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 102.71.3 pts toward POR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 99.0 and UTA 106.4 → average 102.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR15.8UTA16.30.3 pts toward UTA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR15.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ja Morant15.825.94

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

UTA16.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaren Jackson Jr.16.226.14

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysUTA3 days0.3 pts toward UTA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 29 against MEM.

UTA3days

Last played Oct 28 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29MEM103–12437-9112-4917-261613101.0121.6102.0
Oct 27@LAL136–12946-7818-3626-41147133.3129.0101.0
Oct 23@SAC128–12046-9614-4822-30913120.8113.2106.0
Oct 21PHX124–8345-9419-4715-181716126.586.597.0
Apr 28@SAS95–11433-9411-4718-2391499.0121.395.0
Apr 26SAS93–11432-8010-3119-2318793.0116.399.0
Apr 24SAS108–12037-9014-3820-291016109.1122.498.5
Apr 21@SAS106–10338-8913-3817-231515108.2106.297.5
Apr 19@SAS98–11139-9110-3810-12108102.1116.895.5
Apr 12SAC122–11047-10116-4612-151218123.2112.298.5

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28SAS111–11739-9215-3918-191912102.8108.397.8
Oct 26MEM105–11038-9210-3319-251314104.0110.0100.5
Oct 25LAL123–13246-9510-3521-271720120.6130.7101.5
Oct 23NOP120–11941-8413-3525-331814117.6116.7102.0
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5
Apr 10MEM147–10162-11015-358-17168121.583.5121.0
Apr 7@NOP137–15653-10410-3221-24167112.3127.9122.0
Apr 5@OKC111–14643-10014-3911-151614101.8136.4108.0
Apr 3@HOU106–14043-965-2715-221317102.9138.6102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
72%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
POR was the forecast favorite
14 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual −22 for UTA
112th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
48th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORUTA
Final score11290
Field goals31–76 · 40.8%29–78 · 37.2%
Three-pointers16–44 · 36.4%11–40 · 27.5%
Free throws34–41 · 82.9%21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds4837
Assists1623
Turnovers1719
Steals1312
Blocks37

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)−8−22−14
Total points244202−42
POR points126112−14
UTA points11890−28

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 vs MEM L 103–124
Oct 27 at LAL W 136–129
Oct 23 at SAC W 128–120
Oct 21 vs PHX W 124–83
Apr 28 at SAS L 95–114

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs SAS L 111–117
Oct 26 vs MEM L 105–110
Oct 25 vs LAL L 123–132
Oct 23 vs NOP W 120–119
Oct 21 at MEM L 103–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 13 2025-26 UTA at POR UTA 114 – 124 POR
Feb 12 2025-26 POR at UTA POR 135 – 119 UTA
Jan 5 2025-26 UTA at POR UTA 117 – 137 POR
Oct 29 2025-26 POR at UTA POR 136 – 134 UTA
Apr 9 2024-25 POR at UTA POR 126 – 133 UTA