The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 4

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls

Monday, November 4, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

UTA 0–1@CHI 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 23 percent, CHI 77 percent. UTA Jazz 23% proj. 111 · final 135 CHI Bulls · home 77% proj. 122 · final 126
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 111 135 +24
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 122 126 +4

Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputUTACHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13421481
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +209
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.0−2.1
Games played this season 66
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 104.3112.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.3113.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 35.74.7
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1342CHI1481

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
  2. This season's 6 games: −55.1
  • LMEM124–126−6.8
  • LGSW86–127−15.2
  • L@DAL102–110−2.0
  • LSAC96–113−10.5
  • LSAS88–106−16.1
  • L@DEN103–129−4.5

CHI1481

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
  2. This season's 6 games: −0.1
  • L@NOP111–123−6.8
  • W@MIL133–122+16.6
  • LOKC95–114−11.8
  • W@MEM126–123+5.0
  • WORL102–99+5.2
  • L@BKN112–120−8.3
Season scoring marginUTA−9.0CHI−2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−9.0

Scores 99.8, allows 118.5 over 6 games: −18.7 a game.

30% this season (−18.7) + 70% last season (−4.9) = −9.0

CHI−2.1

Scores 113.2, allows 116.8 over 6 games: −3.7 a game.

30% this season (−3.7) + 70% last season (−1.4) = −2.1

Offensive rating, last 10UTA104.3CHI112.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

UTA104.3scored, −10.1 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.5%54.7%−9.3
Turnovers (TOV%)15.3%11.5%−5.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.8%24.1%+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.194+1.1
Everything else+0.9

CHI112.4scored, −2.1 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.7%−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.5%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%24.1%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1690.194−0.7
Everything else−1.0
Defensive rating, last 10UTA117.3CHI113.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

UTA117.3allowed, +2.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.7%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.5%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.2%24.1%−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1500.194+1.3
Everything else−0.3

CHI113.8allowed, −0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.7%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%11.5%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.4%24.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1740.194+0.6
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 100.2 and CHI 103.3 → average 101.7 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingUTA35.7CHI4.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA35.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Lauri Markkanen18.028.44
Jordan Clarkson13.024.55
Taylor Hendricks4.724.83

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-04 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHI4.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Lonzo Ball4.715.73

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-04 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestUTA2 daysCHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA2days

Last played Nov 2 against DEN.

CHI3days

Last played Nov 1 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 2@DEN103–12932-7713-4226-3122897.2121.7106.0
Oct 31SAS88–10632-827-3217-19261588.0105.0100.5
Oct 29SAC96–11335-8914-4812-14171298.0115.398.0
Oct 28@DAL102–11034-9210-3524-291315101.0110.0100.5
Oct 25GSW86–12729-929-4219-26221482.7123.3103.5
Oct 23MEM124–12640-8510-2634-451414119.2120.0104.5
Apr 14@GSW116–12346-8914-3410-161914116.0123.0100.0
Apr 12@LAC110–10941-886-3522-251614112.2112.497.5
Apr 11HOU124–12144-8714-3922-271415129.2126.096.0
Apr 9DEN95–11136-9110-3113-131411100.0116.895.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1@BKN112–12038-8817-4419-241610108.7118.8102.0
Oct 30ORL102–9936-8413-3417-25149100.097.1102.0
Oct 28@MEM126–12345-10025-5311-17911120.0118.3104.5
Oct 26OKC95–11432-9215-5316-22261182.699.1115.0
Oct 25@MIL133–12246-9621-4720-2399122.0114.0108.0
Oct 23@NOP111–12342-8610-3417-25219102.8113.9108.0
Apr 14@NYK119–12049-1018-3113-161215114.4114.394.6
Apr 12@WAS129–12748-9814-3519-281317120.6121.0106.0
Apr 11@DET127–10551-9614-3611-15811130.9107.197.5
Apr 9NYK117–12847-8810-2813-19912121.9134.795.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
23%
pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner
the forecast favored CHI
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −9 for CHI
26th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
181st
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTACHI
Final score135126
Field goals48–89 · 53.9%45–95 · 47.4%
Three-pointers16–36 · 44.4%14–37 · 37.8%
Free throws23–30 · 76.7%22–25 · 88.0%
Rebounds4936
Assists3536
Turnovers129
Steals37
Blocks67

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)+11−9−20
Total points233261+28
UTA points111135+24
CHI points122126+4

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
UTA30323340–135
CHI27264033–126

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Nov 2 at DEN L 103–129
Oct 31 vs SAS L 88–106
Oct 29 vs SAC L 96–113
Oct 28 at DAL L 102–110
Oct 25 vs GSW L 86–127

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 at BKN L 112–120
Oct 30 vs ORL W 102–99
Oct 28 at MEM W 126–123
Oct 26 vs OKC L 95–114
Oct 25 at MIL W 133–122

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 6 2023-24 CHI at UTA CHI 119 – 117 UTA
Nov 6 2023-24 UTA at CHI UTA 113 – 130 CHI
Jan 7 2022-23 UTA at CHI UTA 118 – 126 CHI
Nov 28 2022-23 CHI at UTA CHI 114 – 107 UTA
Mar 16 2021-22 CHI at UTA CHI 110 – 125 UTA