The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 23

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, November 23, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 0–0@UTA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 14 percent, UTA 86 percent. DET Pistons 14% proj. 106 · final 125 UTA Jazz · home 86% proj. 123 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 106 125 +19
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 123 116 −7

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 86% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETUTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13561556
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +270
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.5+3.0
Games played this season 1919
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.3118.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.8115.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 37.812.9
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1356UTA1556

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1356

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1369 → started this one at 1402
  2. First 9 games: −25.7
  3. Last 10 games: −20.2
  • LCLE88–112−11.8
  • WOKC112–103+8.4
  • L@BOS112–128−2.7
  • L@NYK112–121−4.1
  • LBOS108–117−3.7
  • LTOR111–115−4.2
  • L@LAC91–96−3.0
  • L@LAL121–128−5.2
  • L@SAC129–137−3.8
  • W@DEN110–108+9.9

UTA1556

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1551 → started this one at 1538
  2. First 9 games: +16.4
  3. Last 10 games: +1.5
  • W@LAL130–116+10.2
  • W@LAC110–102+8.9
  • WLAL139–116+6.2
  • W@ATL125–119+8.7
  • L@WAS112–121−12.8
  • L@PHI98–105−6.7
  • LNYK111–118−13.7
  • WPHX134–133+3.6
  • W@POR118–113+5.4
  • L@LAC114–121−8.3
Season scoring marginDET−8.5UTA+3.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−8.5

Scores 109.4, allows 118.0 over 19 games: −8.6 a game.

95% this season (−8.6) + 5% last season (−7.7) = −8.5

UTA+3.0

Scores 117.4, allows 114.5 over 19 games: +2.9 a game.

95% this season (+2.9) + 5% last season (+5.2) = +3.0

Offensive rating, last 10DET109.3UTA118.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

DET109.3scored, −2.3 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%53.7%−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.7%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%23.8%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2600.209+1.5
Everything else+0.3

UTA118.1scored, +6.5 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%53.7%+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.7%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%23.8%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.209−0.3
Everything else+2.3
Defensive rating, last 10DET116.8UTA115.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

DET116.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%53.7%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.7%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%23.8%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.209−1.3
Everything else−0.4

UTA115.5allowed, +3.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%53.7%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.7%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%23.8%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.209−0.3
Everything else−1.1
Pace, last 10average 100.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 99.8 and UTA 100.8 → average 100.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.1)

Rotation points missingDET37.8UTA12.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET37.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Cade Cunningham14.730.33
Saddiq Bey13.230.48
Isaiah Stewart9.823.46

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-23 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

UTA12.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mike Conley9.127.99
Rudy Gay3.815.26

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDET1 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 22 against DEN.

UTA2days

Last played Nov 21 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 22@DEN110–10845-888-2812-141612113.4113.796.0
Nov 20@SAC129–13747-8915-2920-231210127.7134.3101.5
Nov 18@LAL121–12843-9211-3424-321110114.2120.8106.0
Nov 17@LAC91–9633-886-3119-24121093.899.097.0
Nov 14TOR111–11535-7710-3131-431911111.0116.299.5
Nov 12BOS108–11737-8916-3818-211411109.1119.498.5
Nov 11@NYK112–12137-807-3131-411512112.0121.0100.0
Nov 9@BOS112–12837-897-3331-401015109.8125.5102.0
Nov 7OKC112–10339-939-3325-331416109.8101.0102.0
Nov 4CLE88–11231-8313-3713-1518991.7116.796.0

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 21@LAC114–12140-8912-3822-241716115.2123.598.5
Nov 19@POR118–11342-9114-3920-231311116.8111.9101.0
Nov 18PHX134–13351-9116-3116-241611131.4127.9103.0
Nov 15NYK111–11836-8314-4325-302015107.8114.6103.0
Nov 13@PHI98–10537-9411-3713-231718101.0107.197.5
Nov 12@WAS112–12144-9414-4010-11127110.9119.8101.0
Nov 9@ATL125–11944-9417-3920-241313119.0114.4104.5
Nov 7LAL139–11653-9516-3817-221410133.7111.5104.0
Nov 6@LAC110–10235-7515-4025-26207111.1103.099.0
Nov 4@LAL130–11652-10317-409-10815134.0120.896.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
14%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
the forecast favored UTA
26 pts
margin miss
forecast +17, actual −9 for UTA
3rd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
64th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETUTA
Final score125116
Field goals44–89 · 49.4%41–83 · 49.4%
Three-pointers12–24 · 50.0%18–41 · 43.9%
Free throws25–27 · 92.6%16–19 · 84.2%
Rebounds3838
Assists2431
Turnovers715
Steals94
Blocks27

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)+17−9−26
Total points229241+12
DET points106125+19
UTA points123116−7

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Nov 22 at DEN W 110–108
Nov 20 at SAC L 129–137
Nov 18 at LAL L 121–128
Nov 17 at LAC L 91–96
Nov 14 vs TOR L 111–115

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Nov 21 at LAC L 114–121
Nov 19 at POR W 118–113
Nov 18 vs PHX W 134–133
Nov 15 vs NYK L 111–118
Nov 13 at PHI L 98–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 21 2021-22 DET at UTA DET 101 – 111 UTA
Jan 10 2021-22 UTA at DET UTA 116 – 126 DET