The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

NOP 0–1@UTA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 56 percent, UTA 44 percent. NOP Pelicans 56% proj. 123 · final 119 UTA Jazz · home 44% proj. 121 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 123 119 −4
UTA Utah Jazz (home) 121 120 −1

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NOP

  • Home court+2.1 UTAWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.7 NOPElo UTA 1324, NOP 1416; season margin UTA −9.0, NOP −4.4.
  • Recent form+1.4 NOPLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: UTA scores 108.5 and allows 122.6; NOP scores 111.1 and allows 121.0.

Together: NOP by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NOP is 0–1, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 123). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.7.

UTA is 0–1, losing by 20 a game on average (scoring 103, allowing 123). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense makes 17 free throws per 100 shots (league 21), which alone costs about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.4, forcing turnovers −1.1.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors UTA; left favors NOP.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −2.7, Recent form −1.4, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.1, giving −1.6 for UTA. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −2.7 Recent form −1.4 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.1 Projected margin −1.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −1.6. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputNOPUTAEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14161324 −0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −22 −2.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.4−9.0 +0.1
Games played this season 11 −0.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.1108.5 −0.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.0122.6 +0.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 106.4 −1.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueUTA ptsNOP ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-22.1−1.22+0.76−1.98
Combined pace, last 10106.4+4.29+5.85−1.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)121.0+1.53−0.02+1.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)122.6+0.47+1.84−1.37
Season scoring margin (away)-4.4+0.87−0.13+1.00
Elo rating (home)1323.7−0.09+0.78−0.87
Season scoring margin (home)-9.0−0.60+0.26−0.85
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.75−0.05+0.80
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.09+0.49−0.58
Games played (away)1.0+0.12+0.60−0.48
Elo rating (away)1415.8+0.23−0.14+0.37
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.5−0.66−0.32−0.35
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.1−0.09−0.42+0.33
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.09+0.19
Games played (home)1.0+0.67+0.54+0.13
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.07−0.07
Rest days (home)2.0−0.03+0.01−0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1416UTA13242.5 pts toward NOP

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1416

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 1 game: −8.2
  • LIND120–123−8.2

UTA1324

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 1 game: −12.8
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
Season scoring marginNOP−4.4UTA−9.00.2 pts toward NOP

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−4.4

Scores 120.0, allows 123.0 over 1 game: −3.0 a game.

5% this season (−3.0) + 95% last season (−4.5) = −4.4

UTA−9.0

Scores 103.0, allows 123.0 over 1 game: −20.0 a game.

5% this season (−20.0) + 95% last season (−8.4) = −9.0

Offensive rating, last 10NOP111.1UTA108.5no effect on the margin

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP111.1scored, −3.5 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.5%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.210+1.0
Everything else+0.9

UTA108.5scored, −6.1 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.210−1.3
Everything else−2.9
Defensive rating, last 10NOP121.0UTA122.60.2 pts toward UTA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP121.0allowed, +6.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.5%−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.2%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else+0.5

UTA122.6allowed, +8.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.8%54.5%−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210+0.3
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 106.41.6 pts toward NOP

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 104.5 and UTA 108.2 → average 106.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNOP0.0UTA0.00.2 pts toward UTA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysUTA2 days0.1 pts toward NOP

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Oct 21 against IND.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 21 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5
Apr 2@POR106–11838-849-2321-261912107.1116.8100.0
Mar 29HOU102–13437-869-2919-28108102.0135.499.5
Mar 27@TOR106–11939-937-2821-251315106.0119.0100.0
Mar 26@DET108–12944-959-2511-241516104.9124.0103.5

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5
Apr 10MEM147–10162-11015-358-17168121.583.5121.0
Apr 7@NOP137–15653-10410-3221-24167112.3127.9122.0
Apr 5@OKC111–14643-10014-3911-151614101.8136.4108.0
Apr 3@HOU106–14043-965-2715-221317102.9138.6102.0
Apr 1DEN117–13044-9512-3717-251210109.3121.5107.0
Mar 30CLE113–12242-8815-2914-20158110.8119.6102.0
Mar 28@PHX109–13443-9210-2313-191410103.8127.6105.0
Mar 27@DEN129–13553-959-3314-19108121.7128.6105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
3 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +1 for UTA
35th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPUTA
Final score119120
Field goals44–87 · 50.6%41–84 · 48.8%
Three-pointers8–26 · 30.8%13–35 · 37.1%
Free throws23–27 · 85.2%25–33 · 75.8%
Rebounds3742
Assists1831
Turnovers1518
Steals154
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)−2+1+3
Total points244239−5
NOP points123119−4
UTA points121120−1

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs IND L 120–123
Apr 12 at MIN L 126–132
Apr 10 at BOS L 118–144
Apr 7 vs UTA W 156–137
Apr 5 vs ORL L 108–112

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at MEM L 103–123
Apr 12 at LAL L 107–131
Apr 10 vs MEM W 147–101
Apr 7 at NOP L 137–156
Apr 5 at OKC L 111–146

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 7 2025-26 UTA at NOP UTA 137 – 156 NOP
Feb 28 2025-26 NOP at UTA NOP 115 – 105 UTA
Feb 26 2025-26 NOP at UTA NOP 129 – 118 UTA
Mar 2 2024-25 NOP at UTA NOP 128 – 121 UTA
Jan 20 2024-25 UTA at NOP UTA 119 – 123 NOP