2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
Friday, April 10, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET
MEM 3–3@UTA 9–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | 124 | 101 | −23 |
| UTA Utah Jazz (home) | 118 | 147 | +29 |
Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 66% win probability, projected margin 6.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MEM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1303 | 1257 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +24 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −5.3 | −8.9 |
| Games played this season | 80 | 80 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 110.5 | 109.0 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 129.5 | 127.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 104.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 68.3 | 50.2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMEM1303UTA1257
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MEM1303
- Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1519
- First 70 games: −152.0
- Last 10 games: −63.9
- L@ATL107–146−8.3
- LSAS98–123−4.7
- LHOU109–119−6.2
- WCHI125–124+3.4
- LPHX105–131−13.1
- LNYK119–130−4.1
- LTOR96–128−14.1
- L@MIL115–131−9.7
- LCLE126–142−4.9
- L@DEN119–136−2.2
UTA1257
- Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
- First 70 games: −14.5
- Last 10 games: −66.2
- LPHI116–126−7.0
- LTOR127–143−8.1
- LWAS110–133−27.8
- L@DEN129–135−1.1
- L@PHX109–134−4.5
- LCLE113–122−2.8
- LDEN117–130−3.6
- L@HOU106–140−3.5
- L@OKC111–146−1.4
- L@NOP137–156−6.4
Season scoring marginMEM−5.3UTA−8.9
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MEM−5.3
Scores 114.9, allows 120.2 over 80 games: −5.3 a game.
UTA−8.9
Scores 117.3, allows 126.3 over 80 games: −8.9 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MEM110.5UTA109.0
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
MEM110.5scored, −4.3 vs league
| Factor | MEM | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.9% | 54.6% | −1.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.2% | −1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 13.2% | 26.0% | −5.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.199 | 0.209 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +4.0 |
UTA109.0scored, −5.8 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% | 54.6% | −3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.2% | 12.2% | +1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.4% | 26.0% | −1.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.197 | 0.209 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | −2.0 |
Defensive rating, last 10MEM129.5UTA127.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
MEM129.5allowed, +14.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 61.8% | 54.6% | −10.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.8% | 12.2% | +0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 50.9% | 26.0% | −11.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.231 | 0.209 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +7.0 |
UTA127.6allowed, +12.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 61.6% | 54.6% | −10.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.7% | 12.2% | −0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.2% | 26.0% | −1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.216 | 0.209 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.5 |
Pace, last 10average 104.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MEM 101.3 and UTA 107.4 → average 104.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingMEM68.3UTA50.2
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MEM68.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| GG Jackson | 18.1 | 25.3 | 8 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 17.4 | 21.8 | 7 |
| Cedric Coward | 15.2 | 24.4 | 8 |
| Cam Spencer | 9.4 | 23.9 | 5 |
| Taylor Hendricks | 8.1 | 23.2 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
UTA50.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Sensabaugh | 22.6 | 31.5 | 8 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 17.8 | 27.0 | 9 |
| Elijah Harkless | 9.8 | 33.1 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestMEM2 daysUTA3 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MEM2days
Last played Apr 8 against DEN.
UTA3days
Last played Apr 7 against NOP.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MEM
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 | @DEN | 119–136 | 42-92 | 19-50 | 16-23 | 6 | 3 | 119.0 | 136.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 6 | CLE | 126–142 | 45-94 | 29-59 | 7-10 | 13 | 3 | 122.3 | 137.9 | 103.0 |
| Apr 5 | @MIL | 115–131 | 38-92 | 17-46 | 22-28 | 14 | 9 | 112.7 | 129.7 | 101.5 |
| Apr 3 | TOR | 96–128 | 34-85 | 11-42 | 17-26 | 20 | 8 | 93.2 | 125.5 | 102.5 |
| Apr 1 | NYK | 119–130 | 39-76 | 16-36 | 25-30 | 13 | 3 | 126.6 | 136.8 | 94.5 |
| Mar 30 | PHX | 105–131 | 38-75 | 11-30 | 18-20 | 22 | 4 | 106.1 | 132.3 | 99.0 |
| Mar 28 | CHI | 125–124 | 50-107 | 12-38 | 13-17 | 14 | 8 | 112.6 | 110.7 | 111.5 |
| Mar 27 | HOU | 109–119 | 40-91 | 13-37 | 16-18 | 11 | 9 | 112.4 | 122.7 | 97.0 |
| Mar 25 | SAS | 98–123 | 34-86 | 16-50 | 14-20 | 12 | 3 | 96.1 | 123.0 | 101.0 |
| Mar 23 | @ATL | 107–146 | 35-83 | 14-43 | 23-26 | 21 | 4 | 103.9 | 140.4 | 103.5 |
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 | @NOP | 137–156 | 53-104 | 10-32 | 21-24 | 16 | 7 | 112.3 | 127.9 | 122.0 |
| Apr 5 | @OKC | 111–146 | 43-100 | 14-39 | 11-15 | 16 | 14 | 101.8 | 136.4 | 108.0 |
| Apr 3 | @HOU | 106–140 | 43-96 | 5-27 | 15-22 | 13 | 17 | 102.9 | 138.6 | 102.0 |
| Apr 1 | DEN | 117–130 | 44-95 | 12-37 | 17-25 | 12 | 10 | 109.3 | 121.5 | 107.0 |
| Mar 30 | CLE | 113–122 | 42-88 | 15-29 | 14-20 | 15 | 8 | 110.8 | 119.6 | 102.0 |
| Mar 28 | @PHX | 109–134 | 43-92 | 10-23 | 13-19 | 14 | 10 | 103.8 | 127.6 | 105.0 |
| Mar 27 | @DEN | 129–135 | 53-95 | 9-33 | 14-19 | 10 | 8 | 121.7 | 128.6 | 105.5 |
| Mar 25 | WAS | 110–133 | 45-96 | 7-29 | 13-25 | 14 | 10 | 99.1 | 120.9 | 110.5 |
| Mar 23 | TOR | 127–143 | 39-83 | 13-36 | 36-43 | 15 | 8 | 115.5 | 131.2 | 109.5 |
| Mar 21 | PHI | 116–126 | 39-96 | 9-40 | 29-31 | 8 | 9 | 112.6 | 123.5 | 102.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MEM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 101 | 147 |
| Field goals | 41–109 · 37.6% | 62–110 · 56.4% |
| Three-pointers | 11–52 · 21.2% | 15–35 · 42.9% |
| Free throws | 8–9 · 88.9% | 8–17 · 47.1% |
| Rebounds | 47 | 64 |
| Assists | 27 | 43 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 16 |
| Steals | 10 | 16 |
| Blocks | 2 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Utah Jazz
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (UTA) | −6 | +46 | +52 |
| Total points | 242 | 248 | +6 |
| MEM points | 124 | 101 | −23 |
| UTA points | 118 | 147 | +29 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20 2025-26 | UTA at MEM | UTA 114 – 123 MEM |
| Dec 23 2025-26 | MEM at UTA | MEM 137 – 128 UTA |
| Dec 12 2025-26 | UTA at MEM | UTA 130 – 126 MEM |
| Mar 25 2024-25 | MEM at UTA | MEM 140 – 103 UTA |
| Mar 12 2024-25 | UTA at MEM | UTA 115 – 122 MEM |