← Forecasts for Nov 4

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

UTA 1–6@NOP 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 28 percent, NOP 72 percent. UTA Jazz 28% proj. 114 · final 113 NOP Pelicans · home 72% proj. 122 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 114 113 −1
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 122 120 −2

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
73%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
NOP was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual +7 for NOP
115th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTANOP
Final score113120
Field goals41–94 · 43.6%38–89 · 42.7%
Three-pointers11–47 · 23.4%5–20 · 25.0%
Free throws20–30 · 66.7%39–43 · 90.7%
Rebounds4948
Assists2423
Turnovers2017
Steals89
Blocks76

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)+8+7−1
Total points236233−3
UTA points114113−1
NOP points122120−2

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Utah Jazz

  • Out Jaren Jackson Jr. · Right MCLTear
  • Out Jusuf Nurkić
  • Questionable Mo Bamba · Right Ankle Sprain

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Out Yves Missi
  • Questionable Trey Murphy III

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Nov 2 at SAS L 97–119
Oct 31 vs POR L 90–112
Oct 28 vs SAS L 111–117
Oct 26 vs MEM L 105–110
Oct 25 vs LAL L 123–132

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Nov 2 at MEM W 135–134
Oct 31 vs ATL W 121–99
Oct 29 vs SAC W 132–120
Oct 28 vs DEN L 91–104
Oct 24 at DEN L 135–141

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 23 2026-27 NOP at UTA NOP 119 – 120 UTA
Apr 7 2025-26 UTA at NOP UTA 137 – 156 NOP
Feb 28 2025-26 NOP at UTA NOP 115 – 105 UTA
Feb 26 2025-26 NOP at UTA NOP 129 – 118 UTA
Mar 2 2024-25 NOP at UTA NOP 128 – 121 UTA