2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz

Saturday, December 3, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 4–0@UTA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	111	116	+5
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	122	111	−11

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1393	1531
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+208
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.7	+2.4
Games played this season	22	25
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.8	118.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.8	118.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	35.7	7.7
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1393UTA1531

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1393

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
First 12 games: +110.8
Last 10 games: −29.4

L@DAL112–117−2.6
WSAS117–110+7.3
LBKN107–109−4.9
LUTA113–118−5.4
L@MIL111–119−3.4
L@CLE96–114−5.6
W@NYK132–129+9.2
L@BKN97–111−6.3
LLAC112–118−7.3
L@LAL109–128−10.4

UTA1531

Ended last season at 1551 → started this one at 1538
First 15 games: +30.9
Last 10 games: −37.6

LNYK111–118−13.7
WPHX134–133+3.6
W@POR118–113+5.4
L@LAC114–121−8.3
LDET116–125−20.5
L@GSW118–129−7.3
L@PHX112–113−2.2
LCHI107–114−12.4
WLAC125–112+8.8
WIND139–119+9.0

Season scoring marginPOR−1.7UTA+2.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−1.7

Scores 109.8, allows 111.5 over 22 games: −1.7 a game.

UTA+2.4

Scores 117.9, allows 115.5 over 25 games: +2.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR112.8UTA118.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

POR112.8scored, +0.6 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.0%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.7%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	23.9%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.237	0.209	+0.8
Everything else			−0.7

UTA118.6scored, +6.4 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.0%	+6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.3%	12.7%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.2%	23.9%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.225	0.209	+0.5
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10POR119.8UTA118.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

POR119.8allowed, +7.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.0%	−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.7%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	23.9%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.217	0.209	−0.2
Everything else			−0.9

UTA118.7allowed, +6.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.0%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.7%	−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.7%	23.9%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.235	0.209	−0.8
Everything else			−2.0

Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.0 and UTA 100.9 → average 99.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR35.7UTA7.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR35.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Damian Lillard	22.2	35.4	4
Josh Hart	9.7	34.8	9
Nassir Little	3.8	15.2	9

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-03 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

UTA7.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Mike Conley	7.7	24.4	3

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-03 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR3 daysUTA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR3days

Last played Nov 30 against LAL.

UTA1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 2 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 30	@LAL	109–128	42-90	8-24	17-21	10	12	110.1	129.3	99.0
Nov 29	LAC	112–118	42-90	17-35	11-15	11	9	116.7	122.9	96.0
Nov 27	@BKN	97–111	35-79	12-33	15-22	13	11	107.8	123.3	90.0
Nov 25	@NYK	132–129	42-85	10-32	38-51	12	13	120.0	118.3	99.2
Nov 23	@CLE	96–114	35-78	13-31	13-13	16	11	106.7	128.1	89.5
Nov 21	@MIL	111–119	44-93	8-29	15-19	15	12	108.8	114.4	103.0
Nov 19	UTA	113–118	39-83	13-42	22-27	17	10	111.9	116.8	101.0
Nov 17	BKN	107–109	36-93	13-36	22-27	9	8	107.0	109.0	100.0
Nov 15	SAS	117–110	41-79	15-32	20-26	15	9	120.6	112.2	97.5
Nov 12	@DAL	112–117	36-80	13-31	27-35	12	12	117.9	123.2	95.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 2	IND	139–119	46-83	15-34	32-37	24	8	120.9	102.6	115.5
Nov 30	LAC	125–112	45-81	14-32	21-28	18	13	127.6	115.5	97.5
Nov 28	CHI	107–114	41-85	19-49	6-15	14	9	111.5	115.2	97.5
Nov 26	@PHX	112–113	40-79	13-32	19-25	12	8	119.1	120.2	94.0
Nov 25	@GSW	118–129	46-97	11-45	15-17	13	15	114.6	124.0	103.5
Nov 23	DET	116–125	41-83	18-41	16-19	15	7	120.8	131.6	95.5
Nov 21	@LAC	114–121	40-89	12-38	22-24	17	16	115.2	123.5	98.5
Nov 19	@POR	118–113	42-91	14-39	20-23	13	11	116.8	111.9	101.0
Nov 18	PHX	134–133	51-91	16-31	16-24	16	11	131.4	127.9	103.0
Nov 15	NYK	111–118	36-83	14-43	25-30	20	15	107.8	114.6	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored UTA

16 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −5 for UTA

22nd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

265th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	UTA
Final score	116	111
Field goals	41–85 · 48.2%	38–84 · 45.2%
Three-pointers	10–25 · 40.0%	13–36 · 36.1%
Free throws	24–31 · 77.4%	22–28 · 78.6%
Rebounds	49	44
Assists	19	20
Turnovers	13	13
Steals	5	8
Blocks	6	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	+11	−5	−16
Total points	233	227	−6
POR points	111	116	+5
UTA points	122	111	−11

Recent form before this game