The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 12

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers

Monday, December 12, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 1–1@LAC 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 70 percent, LAC 30 percent. BOS Celtics 70% proj. 117 · final 93 LAC Clippers · home 30% proj. 109 · final 113
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 117 93 −24
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 109 113 +4

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSLAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16891469
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −150
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.9−1.5
Games played this season 2728
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 121.5110.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.2116.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 9.219.8
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1689LAC1469

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1689

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 17 games: +14.2
  3. Last 10 games: +28.9
  • WDAL125–112+6.0
  • WSAC122–104+4.9
  • WWAS130–121+2.6
  • WCHA140–105+6.0
  • WMIA134–121+5.2
  • LMIA116–120−11.6
  • W@BKN103–92+8.4
  • W@TOR116–110+5.5
  • W@PHX125–98+19.3
  • L@GSW107–123−17.4

LAC1469

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1527 → started this one at 1521
  2. First 18 games: −14.0
  3. Last 10 games: −37.3
  • L@GSW107–124−8.9
  • LDEN104–114−12.0
  • WIND114–100+9.0
  • W@POR118–112+7.3
  • L@UTA112–125−8.8
  • LSAC96–123−26.1
  • W@CHA119–117+5.5
  • L@ORL111–116−9.0
  • L@MIA110–115−4.2
  • W@WAS114–107+9.9
Season scoring marginBOS+7.9LAC−1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+7.9

Scores 120.3, allows 112.4 over 27 games: +7.9 a game.

LAC−1.5

Scores 107.7, allows 109.2 over 28 games: −1.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS121.5LAC110.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

BOS121.5scored, +9.2 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.9%54.0%+8.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.7%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%23.9%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.210−0.0
Everything else+0.7

LAC110.9scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%54.0%−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.7%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.0%23.9%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210+0.5
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10BOS110.2LAC116.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

BOS110.2allowed, −2.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.0%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.7%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%23.9%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.210+0.7
Everything else−0.1

LAC116.1allowed, +3.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.0%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%12.7%−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%23.9%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.210+0.8
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 99.5 and LAC 98.7 → average 99.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBOS9.2LAC19.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS9.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Al Horford9.231.66

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAC19.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Norman Powell19.825.84

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-12 17:30 ET. 14 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysLAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Dec 10 against GSW.

LAC2days

Last played Dec 10 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 10@GSW107–12338-8712-4019-26106102.9119.4103.5
Dec 7@PHX125–9849-10116-4511-131211117.992.5106.0
Dec 5@TOR116–11044-9013-3615-211113118.4112.298.0
Dec 4@BKN103–9235-8115-3818-20158105.195.897.0
Dec 2MIA116–12040-8715-4521-28207104.5107.1101.0
Nov 30MIA134–12146-8322-4520-231711135.4123.598.5
Nov 28CHA140–10555-9324-526-7139140.0105.0100.0
Nov 27WAS130–12144-8016-3426-261410138.3128.794.0
Nov 25SAC122–10441-8316-3724-27104123.2103.0100.0
Nov 23DAL125–11245-8417-3418-21116128.9114.397.5

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 10@WAS114–10740-9419-4815-16109112.9107.0100.5
Dec 8@MIA110–11537-8017-3619-21167113.4118.697.0
Dec 7@ORL111–11639-9515-4118-261517106.7112.693.7
Dec 5@CHA119–11745-9315-3614-211213120.2119.498.5
Dec 3SAC96–12333-939-3321-26171795.0121.8101.0
Nov 30@UTA112–12537-9310-3028-361017115.5127.697.5
Nov 29@POR118–11241-8913-3123-281314122.9116.796.0
Nov 27IND114–10042-946-3224-321818105.693.5107.5
Nov 25DEN104–11437-6811-2219-34144111.8122.693.0
Nov 23@GSW107–12439-8611-2918-271610104.9121.6102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
30%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
28 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +20 for LAC
69th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
42nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSLAC
Final score93113
Field goals33–76 · 43.4%44–90 · 48.9%
Three-pointers9–39 · 23.1%10–25 · 40.0%
Free throws18–26 · 69.2%15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds3646
Assists2718
Turnovers159
Steals510
Blocks62

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)−8+20+28
Total points226206−20
BOS points11793−24
LAC points109113+4

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Dec 10 at GSW L 107–123
Dec 7 at PHX W 125–98
Dec 5 at TOR W 116–110
Dec 4 at BKN W 103–92
Dec 2 vs MIA L 116–120

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 10 at WAS W 114–107
Dec 8 at MIA L 110–115
Dec 7 at ORL L 111–116
Dec 5 at CHA W 119–117
Dec 3 vs SAC L 96–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 29 2021-22 LAC at BOS LAC 91 – 82 BOS
Dec 8 2021-22 BOS at LAC BOS 111 – 114 LAC