2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET
SAC 0–0@LAC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | 111 | 96 | −15 |
| LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) | 118 | 121 | +3 |
Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhy the model leans LAC
- Home court+2.1 LACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
- Team strength+4.4 LACElo LAC 1529, SAC 1369; season margin LAC +1.1, SAC −10.0.
- Recent form+0.8 LACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAC scores 116.0 and allows 113.8; SAC scores 113.0 and allows 123.7.
Together: LAC by 7, a 69% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.
Team-by-team notes from the box scores
LAC hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +1 team. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions.
SAC hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −10 team. Their offense rebounds 31% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions.
Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.
How the projected margin was built
Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAC; left favors SAC.
Every input the model received, with its effect
| Input | SAC | LAC | Effect, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1369 | 1529 | +0.5 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +230 | +4.6 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −10.0 | +1.1 | +1.3 |
| Games played this season | 0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 113.0 | 116.0 | +0.1 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 123.7 | 113.8 | +1.4 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.1 | −0.7 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.0 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 | +0.0 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No | +0.0 |
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
| Input | Value | LAC pts | SAC pts | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo gap incl. home court | 229.7 | +1.81 | −2.78 | +4.59 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (away) | 123.7 | +1.66 | +0.20 | +1.46 |
| Games played (away) | 0.0 | +0.20 | +1.62 | −1.42 |
| Season scoring margin (away) | -10.0 | +0.66 | −0.54 | +1.20 |
| Rotation points missing (away) | 0.0 | −0.28 | +0.53 | −0.81 |
| Rotation points missing (home) | 0.0 | +0.64 | −0.14 | +0.78 |
| Combined pace, last 10 | 98.1 | −2.25 | −1.53 | −0.72 |
| Games played (home) | 0.0 | +0.72 | +1.35 | −0.63 |
| Elo rating (away) | 1369.4 | +0.24 | −0.14 | +0.38 |
| Home series wins | 0.0 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.33 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (home) | 116.0 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.23 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (away) | 113.0 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.18 |
| Elo rating (home) | 1529.1 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.16 |
| Rest days (home) | 5.0 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.14 |
| Rest days (away) | 5.0 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.13 |
| Season scoring margin (home) | 1.1 | +0.13 | +0.02 | +0.11 |
| Back-to-back (home) | 0 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.05 |
| Series pressure | 0.0 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (home) | 113.8 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 |
| Elimination game | 0 | ±0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 |
| Back-to-back (away) | 0 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 |
| Baseline (average output) | 114.4 | 112.4 | +2.10 |
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingSAC1369LAC15295.1 pts toward LAC
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
SAC1369
- Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
- No games played yet this season.
LAC1529
- Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
- No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginSAC−10.0LAC+1.10.7 pts toward SAC
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
SAC−10.0
No games played yet this season.
0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−10.0) = −10.0
LAC+1.1
No games played yet this season.
0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+1.1) = +1.1
Offensive rating, last 10SAC113.0LAC116.00.1 pts toward LAC
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).
SAC113.0scored, −1.6 vs league
| Factor | SAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.5% | −1.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.8% | 12.2% | −0.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.8% | 26.1% | +2.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.182 | 0.210 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.7 |
LAC116.0scored, +1.4 vs league
| Factor | LAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.7% | 54.5% | +1.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.2% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.5% | 26.1% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.208 | 0.210 | −0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10SAC123.7LAC113.81.4 pts toward LAC
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).
SAC123.7allowed, +9.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.4% | 54.5% | −7.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.4% | 12.2% | +0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.3% | 26.1% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.227 | 0.210 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | −2.0 |
LAC113.8allowed, −0.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.6% | 54.5% | −0.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.2% | +1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.0% | 26.1% | −0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.195 | 0.210 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
Pace, last 10average 98.10.7 pts toward SAC
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
SAC 97.9 and LAC 98.3 → average 98.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)
Rotation points missingSAC0.0LAC0.0no effect on the margin
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
SAC0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.
LAC0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.
RestSAC5 daysLAC5 days0.1 pts toward LAC
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
SAC5days
Last played Apr 12 against POR (192 days, capped at 5).
LAC5days
Last played Apr 12 against GSW (192 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
SAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 | @POR | 110–122 | 40-83 | 7-21 | 23-31 | 16 | 15 | 112.2 | 123.2 | 98.5 |
| Apr 10 | GSW | 124–118 | 41-89 | 17-44 | 25-34 | 16 | 16 | 121.6 | 115.7 | 102.0 |
| Apr 7 | @GSW | 105–110 | 41-87 | 11-31 | 12-17 | 14 | 13 | 111.7 | 114.6 | 95.0 |
| Apr 5 | LAC | 109–138 | 45-85 | 9-32 | 10-20 | 20 | 11 | 105.8 | 135.3 | 102.5 |
| Apr 3 | NOP | 117–113 | 46-90 | 10-33 | 15-20 | 14 | 11 | 118.2 | 115.3 | 98.5 |
| Apr 1 | @TOR | 123–115 | 42-92 | 12-33 | 27-29 | 13 | 19 | 126.8 | 117.3 | 97.5 |
| Mar 29 | @BKN | 99–116 | 36-84 | 10-32 | 17-25 | 15 | 11 | 103.1 | 122.1 | 95.5 |
| Mar 28 | @ATL | 113–123 | 45-93 | 12-32 | 11-13 | 15 | 14 | 116.5 | 126.8 | 97.0 |
| Mar 26 | @ORL | 117–121 | 45-88 | 14-33 | 13-16 | 9 | 9 | 123.2 | 128.7 | 94.5 |
| Mar 24 | @CHA | 90–134 | 37-91 | 9-28 | 7-11 | 12 | 8 | 90.9 | 138.1 | 98.0 |
LAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 | GSW | 115–110 | 42-89 | 14-39 | 17-19 | 10 | 10 | 121.1 | 117.0 | 94.5 |
| Apr 10 | @POR | 97–116 | 36-83 | 13-40 | 12-12 | 16 | 9 | 102.1 | 122.1 | 95.0 |
| Apr 8 | OKC | 110–128 | 40-86 | 14-32 | 16-24 | 13 | 10 | 111.1 | 129.3 | 99.0 |
| Apr 7 | DAL | 116–103 | 41-92 | 14-37 | 20-28 | 14 | 11 | 109.4 | 97.2 | 106.0 |
| Apr 5 | @SAC | 138–109 | 49-92 | 20-41 | 20-21 | 14 | 10 | 135.3 | 105.8 | 102.5 |
| Apr 2 | SAS | 99–118 | 40-93 | 5-27 | 14-18 | 10 | 10 | 100.0 | 120.4 | 98.5 |
| Mar 31 | POR | 104–114 | 38-76 | 10-30 | 18-23 | 14 | 8 | 114.3 | 123.9 | 91.5 |
| Mar 29 | @MIL | 127–113 | 45-77 | 13-30 | 24-28 | 16 | 7 | 125.7 | 111.9 | 101.0 |
| Mar 27 | @IND | 114–113 | 41-96 | 13-34 | 19-27 | 11 | 16 | 115.2 | 111.9 | 100.0 |
| Mar 25 | TOR | 119–94 | 42-82 | 16-35 | 19-24 | 10 | 10 | 125.3 | 98.9 | 95.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | SAC | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 96 | 121 |
| Field goals | 36–85 · 42.4% | 43–82 · 52.4% |
| Three-pointers | 8–28 · 28.6% | 14–35 · 40.0% |
| Free throws | 16–28 · 57.1% | 21–31 · 67.7% |
| Rebounds | 42 | 49 |
| Assists | 22 | 29 |
| Turnovers | 17 | 17 |
| Steals | 10 | 14 |
| Blocks | 0 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Los Angeles Clippers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (LAC) | +7 | +25 | +18 |
| Total points | 229 | 217 | −12 |
| SAC points | 111 | 96 | −15 |
| LAC points | 118 | 121 | +3 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 2025-26 | LAC at SAC | LAC 138 – 109 SAC |
| Mar 14 2025-26 | SAC at LAC | SAC 118 – 109 LAC |
| Feb 6 2025-26 | LAC at SAC | LAC 114 – 111 SAC |
| Dec 30 2025-26 | SAC at LAC | SAC 90 – 131 LAC |
| Apr 11 2024-25 | LAC at SAC | LAC 101 – 100 SAC |