2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 · tip-off 11:00 PM ET

POR 1–4@LAC 0–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	112	114	+2
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home)	116	104	−12

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	LAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1492	1569
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+147
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.8	+1.5
Games played this season	76	75
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.3	118.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	103.0	112.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	16.0	8.9
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1492LAC1569

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1492

Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
First 66 games: −35.2
Last 10 games: +24.4

WUTA124–114+3.8
L@PHI103–109−5.6
W@BKN114–95+11.2
W@IND127–119+5.4
W@MIN108–104+9.9
L@DEN112–128−7.0
WBKN134–99+7.2
WMIL130–99+9.1
LDAL93–100−16.0
WWAS123–88+6.4

LAC1569

Ended last season at 1636 → started this one at 1602
First 65 games: −17.9
Last 10 games: −15.1

WCHI119–108+3.1
LSAC109–118−23.5
LSAS115–119−4.8
L@NOP109–124−16.5
L@NOP99–105−8.5
W@DAL138–131+5.6
WMIL129–96+7.7
WTOR119–94+13.4
W@IND114–113+1.6
W@MIL127–113+6.8

Season scoring marginPOR−0.8LAC+1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−0.8

Scores 115.3, allows 116.1 over 76 games: −0.8 a game.

LAC+1.5

Scores 114.0, allows 112.5 over 75 games: +1.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR114.3LAC118.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

POR114.3scored, −0.4 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	54.6%	+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.3%	12.2%	−4.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	36.3%	26.0%	+4.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			−2.4

LAC118.5scored, +3.8 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.6%	+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	26.0%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−2.1

Defensive rating, last 10POR103.0LAC112.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

POR103.0allowed, −11.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.4%	54.6%	+7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.2%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.2%	26.0%	+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.8

LAC112.8allowed, −1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.4%	54.6%	−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.9%	12.2%	+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	26.0%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.159	0.210	+1.5
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 100.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 102.5 and LAC 98.3 → average 100.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingPOR16.0LAC8.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR16.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jerami Grant	16.0	29.4	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-31 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

LAC8.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Isaiah Jackson	8.9	18.3	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysLAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Mar 29 against WAS.

LAC2days

Last played Mar 29 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 29	WAS	123–88	44-86	12-36	23-32	14	11	119.4	85.4	103.0
Mar 27	DAL	93–100	31-79	8-30	23-33	24	14	89.4	96.2	104.0
Mar 25	MIL	130–99	42-80	19-41	27-33	20	15	131.3	98.0	100.0
Mar 23	BKN	134–99	44-80	18-38	28-40	22	8	125.2	91.7	107.5
Mar 22	@DEN	112–128	42-97	16-50	12-16	10	14	109.8	126.7	101.5
Mar 20	@MIN	108–104	39-92	9-37	21-24	17	18	108.0	104.0	100.0
Mar 18	@IND	127–119	45-101	16-46	21-26	13	22	128.3	121.4	98.5
Mar 16	@BKN	114–95	41-80	11-26	21-29	18	11	115.2	95.0	99.5
Mar 15	@PHI	103–109	36-92	17-53	14-21	18	15	100.0	103.8	104.0
Mar 13	UTA	124–114	46-89	17-46	15-16	24	14	115.9	107.5	106.5

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 29	@MIL	127–113	45-77	13-30	24-28	16	7	125.7	111.9	101.0
Mar 27	@IND	114–113	41-96	13-34	19-27	11	16	115.2	111.9	100.0
Mar 25	TOR	119–94	42-82	16-35	19-24	10	10	125.3	98.9	95.0
Mar 23	MIL	129–96	47-81	17-38	18-18	12	4	133.0	99.0	97.0
Mar 21	@DAL	138–131	51-90	21-42	15-18	11	6	130.2	124.8	95.5
Mar 19	@NOP	99–105	35-76	10-32	19-32	15	9	102.1	107.1	97.5
Mar 18	@NOP	109–124	45-88	9-31	10-13	15	14	113.5	130.5	95.5
Mar 16	SAS	115–119	43-89	11-29	18-24	13	12	116.2	121.4	98.5
Mar 14	SAC	109–118	39-84	9-27	22-29	13	9	106.9	116.8	101.5
Mar 13	CHI	119–108	46-96	9-32	18-24	6	10	116.7	105.9	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

39%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored LAC

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual −10 for LAC

174th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	LAC
Final score	114	104
Field goals	41–91 · 45.1%	38–76 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	15–45 · 33.3%	10–30 · 33.3%
Free throws	17–18 · 94.4%	18–23 · 78.3%
Rebounds	48	30
Assists	22	19
Turnovers	14	14
Steals	8	8
Blocks	4	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)	+4	−10	−14
Total points	228	218	−10
POR points	112	114	+2
LAC points	116	104	−12

Recent form before this game