2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers

Sunday, February 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

SAC 0–4@LAC 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	113	123	+10
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home)	121	107	−14

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	LAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1530	1633
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+173
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.6	+5.1
Games played this season	55	55
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.5	117.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.9	117.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1530LAC1633

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1530

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
First 45 games: +5.0
Last 10 games: +2.0

L@MIA106–115−9.1
W@IND133–122+15.0
W@CHI123–115+9.8
L@CLE110–136−9.6
LDET120–133−30.6
WDEN135–106+25.9
L@OKC113–127−7.2
L@PHX125–130−4.0
W@DEN102–98+9.9
WSAS127–122+1.9

LAC1633

Ended last season at 1520 → started this one at 1515
First 45 games: +146.2
Last 10 games: −28.1

W@WAS125–109+4.2
W@DET136–125+2.1
W@MIA103–95+5.9
W@ATL149–144+3.5
LNOP106–117−17.9
WDET112–106+0.8
LMIN100–121−23.2
W@GSW130–125+7.3
L@OKC107–129−15.0
W@MEM101–95+4.2

Season scoring marginSAC+0.6LAC+5.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC+0.6

Scores 118.6, allows 118.0 over 55 games: +0.6 a game.

LAC+5.1

Scores 117.7, allows 112.7 over 55 games: +5.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAC116.5LAC117.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

SAC116.5scored, +1.3 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.8%	54.9%	+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	11.5%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.2%	24.3%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.160	0.201	−1.2
Everything else			−0.4

LAC117.2scored, +2.0 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.9%	+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	11.5%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	24.3%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.237	0.201	+1.1
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10SAC117.9LAC117.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

SAC117.9allowed, +2.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.9%	−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	11.5%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.4%	24.3%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.201	−0.6
Everything else			+1.1

LAC117.0allowed, +1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.9%	−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	11.5%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.3%	24.3%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.144	0.201	+1.6
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 102.3 and LAC 99.5 → average 100.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingSAC0.0LAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAC3 daysLAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC3days

Last played Feb 22 against SAS.

LAC2days

Last played Feb 23 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 22	SAS	127–122	52-93	13-33	10-14	10	7	124.5	120.8	101.5
Feb 14	@DEN	102–98	39-89	9-33	15-19	14	10	100.0	97.0	101.5
Feb 13	@PHX	125–130	49-95	9-31	18-24	13	15	120.2	122.6	105.0
Feb 11	@OKC	113–127	44-90	16-42	9-13	18	10	113.0	127.0	100.0
Feb 9	DEN	135–106	51-87	17-34	16-18	16	6	131.1	102.9	103.0
Feb 7	DET	120–133	45-95	15-44	15-22	4	5	117.6	133.0	101.0
Feb 5	@CLE	110–136	43-93	17-44	7-12	12	10	112.2	137.4	98.5
Feb 3	@CHI	123–115	42-84	15-39	24-29	16	4	116.0	108.5	106.0
Feb 2	@IND	133–122	51-90	13-34	18-28	16	9	120.9	110.9	110.0
Jan 31	@MIA	106–115	41-93	12-40	12-18	9	12	109.3	118.6	97.0

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 23	@MEM	101–95	37-84	12-32	15-17	20	14	105.2	100.0	95.5
Feb 22	@OKC	107–129	42-93	12-32	11-13	14	11	104.9	127.7	101.5
Feb 14	@GSW	130–125	44-88	13-38	29-37	12	12	126.2	120.2	103.5
Feb 12	MIN	100–121	34-84	9-28	23-26	13	10	104.2	127.4	95.5
Feb 10	DET	112–106	37-82	13-39	25-26	11	0	108.7	102.9	103.0
Feb 7	NOP	106–117	36-78	12-32	22-26	19	8	107.1	118.2	99.0
Feb 5	@ATL	149–144	52-89	21-35	24-31	7	8	144.7	139.8	103.0
Feb 4	@MIA	103–95	34-77	16-39	19-22	15	9	108.4	100.0	95.0
Feb 2	@DET	136–125	53-89	14-29	16-19	9	7	136.0	125.0	100.0
Jan 31	@WAS	125–109	47-100	12-30	19-22	8	18	126.3	109.0	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored LAC

24 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −16 for LAC

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

115th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	LAC
Final score	123	107
Field goals	45–91 · 49.5%	40–82 · 48.8%
Three-pointers	15–37 · 40.5%	8–27 · 29.6%
Free throws	18–22 · 81.8%	19–20 · 95.0%
Rebounds	41	39
Assists	29	23
Turnovers	10	15
Steals	10	7
Blocks	1	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)	+8	−16	−24
Total points	234	230	−4
SAC points	113	123	+10
LAC points	121	107	−14

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
SAC	25	33	31	34	–	123
LAC	28	23	29	27	–	107

Recent form before this game