The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 1

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

LAC 1–4@GSW 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 53 percent, GSW 47 percent. LAC Clippers 53% proj. 113 · final 112 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 47% proj. 112 · final 124
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 113 112 −1
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 112 124 +12

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAC

  • Home court+2.1 GSWWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+2.1 LACGSW without Stephen Curry (29 ppg) and Draymond Green (3 ppg).
  • Team strength+1.3 LACElo GSW 1483, LAC 1501; season margin GSW +0.0, LAC −0.8.

Together: LAC by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAC is 1–4, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 105, allowing 112). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.7% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.1% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.1, defensive rebounding −1.0.

GSW is 3–3, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 115). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.1% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.9, getting to the line +1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3, defensive rebounding −1.9. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are out (32 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors GSW; left favors LAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability −2.1, Team strength −1.3, No playoff context +0.3, Recent form −0.1, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −1.1 for GSW. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability −2.1 Team strength −1.3 No playoff context +0.3 Recent form −0.1 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −1.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −1.1. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputLACGSWEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15011483 −0.0
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +52 −0.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.8+0.0 −0.6
Games played this season 56 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.0115.9 +0.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.3117.5 −1.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.4 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.032.2 −2.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueGSW ptsLAC ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)117.5+0.24+1.69−1.45
Rotation points missing (home)32.2−1.22+0.07−1.29
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.22+0.57−0.79
Combined pace, last 1099.4−0.34−1.04+0.70
Season scoring margin (home)0.0−0.41+0.27−0.69
Games played (away)5.0+0.22+0.83−0.61
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.0−0.06−0.61+0.55
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)115.9+0.28−0.06+0.35
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.3−0.41−0.11−0.30
Home series wins0.0+0.32+0.06+0.25
Season scoring margin (away)-0.7+0.25+0.15+0.10
Elo rating (home)1482.8−0.08+0.02−0.10
Elo rating (away)1501.1+0.13+0.06+0.07
Elo gap incl. home court51.7−0.89−0.83−0.05
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Games played (home)6.0+0.03+0.06−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.02−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1501GSW14830.1 pts toward LAC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1501

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 5 games: −28.1
  • WSAC121–96+6.8
  • L@LAL117–125−5.9
  • L@OKC101–108−2.8
  • LLAL87–103−15.5
  • L@MIN101–127−10.7

GSW1483

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 6 games: +41.1
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3
  • W@MIN119–114+13.3
  • WLAL112–95+17.4
Season scoring marginLAC−0.8GSW+0.01.2 pts toward LAC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC−0.8

Scores 105.4, allows 111.8 over 5 games: −6.4 a game.

25% this season (−6.4) + 75% last season (+1.1) = −0.8

GSW+0.0

Scores 116.7, allows 115.3 over 6 games: +1.3 a game.

30% this season (+1.3) + 70% last season (−0.6) = +0.0

Offensive rating, last 10LAC110.0GSW115.90.9 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC110.0scored, −4.6 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.5%−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)15.7%12.2%−4.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else+1.1

GSW115.9scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.2%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.2%26.1%+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.210+1.3
Everything else+2.0
Defensive rating, last 10LAC112.3GSW117.51.7 pts toward LAC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC112.3allowed, −2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.210−0.5
Everything else+1.5

GSW117.5allowed, +2.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.2%+3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 99.40.7 pts toward GSW

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 100.3 and GSW 98.5 → average 99.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0GSW32.22.1 pts toward LAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW32.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Stephen Curry29.228.05
Draymond Green3.028.55

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysGSW2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 30 against MIN.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 30 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@MIN101–12735-8512-3019-221711102.0127.099.5
Oct 28LAL87–10326-7410-3125-27241289.7105.197.5
Oct 25@OKC101–10837-8115-3812-1526899.0105.9102.0
Oct 23@LAL117–12541-8316-3719-252511113.6122.5102.5
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30LAL112–9538-8922-4614-171515119.1102.293.5
Oct 28@MIN119–11439-8911-3530-371713110.2105.6108.0
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
13 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual +12 for GSW
43rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
49th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.76 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACGSW
Final score112124
Field goals40–91 · 44.0%46–86 · 53.5%
Three-pointers14–39 · 35.9%22–49 · 44.9%
Free throws18–19 · 94.7%10–14 · 71.4%
Rebounds4244
Assists2232
Turnovers1415
Steals115
Blocks05

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)−1+12+13
Total points225236+11
LAC points113112−1
GSW points112124+12

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at MIN L 101–127
Oct 28 vs LAL L 87–103
Oct 25 at OKC L 101–108
Oct 23 at LAL L 117–125
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs LAL W 112–95
Oct 28 at MIN W 119–114
Oct 26 at DEN W 134–114
Oct 24 at PHX L 122–131
Oct 23 vs MEM L 108–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 GSW at LAC GSW 110 – 115 LAC
Mar 2 2025-26 LAC at GSW LAC 114 – 101 GSW
Jan 5 2025-26 GSW at LAC GSW 102 – 103 LAC
Oct 28 2025-26 LAC at GSW LAC 79 – 98 GSW
Apr 13 2024-25 LAC at GSW LAC 124 – 119 GSW