2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans

Thursday, March 19, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

LAC 0–3@NOP 5–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers	118	99	−19
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home)	117	105	−12

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAC	NOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1542	1446
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−26
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.6	−3.8
Games played this season	69	70
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	121.2	118.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.8	113.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	39.6	29.1
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1542NOP1446

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1542

Ended last season at 1636 → started this one at 1602
First 59 games: −60.4
Last 10 games: +0.8

W@GSW114–101+13.9
WIND130–107+4.2
L@SAS112–116−2.6
W@MEM123–120+4.1
WNYK126–118+9.9
WMIN153–128+13.0
WCHI119–108+3.1
LSAC109–118−23.5
LSAS115–119−4.8
L@NOP109–124−16.5

NOP1446

Ended last season at 1302 → started this one at 1352
First 60 games: +44.3
Last 10 games: +50.5

W@UTA115–105+10.1
L@LAC117–137−6.8
L@LAL101–110−4.0
W@SAC133–123+9.8
L@PHX116–118−2.3
WWAS138–118+6.7
WTOR122–111+12.4
L@HOU105–107−1.8
WDAL129–111+9.9
WLAC124–109+16.5

Season scoring marginLAC+0.6NOP−3.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+0.6

Scores 113.4, allows 112.8 over 69 games: +0.6 a game.

NOP−3.8

Scores 115.8, allows 119.6 over 70 games: −3.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAC121.2NOP118.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).

LAC121.2scored, +6.6 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.1%	54.5%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.2%	+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.248	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			−1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

NOP118.7scored, +4.1 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.5%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.266	0.210	+1.6
Everything else			+2.9

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10LAC116.8NOP113.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).

LAC116.8allowed, +2.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.8%	12.2%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.210	+0.5
Everything else			−1.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

NOP113.5allowed, −1.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.5%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.210	+0.5
Everything else			−0.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 99.5 and NOP 101.2 → average 100.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingLAC39.6NOP29.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC39.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Bennedict Mathurin	20.6	30.0	9
Darius Garland	19.0	27.2	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

NOP29.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dejounte Murray	20.7	27.9	7
Bryce McGowens	8.3	23.0	6

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-19 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestLAC1 daysNOP1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 18 against NOP.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 18 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 18	@NOP	109–124	45-88	9-31	10-13	15	14	113.5	130.5	95.5
Mar 16	SAS	115–119	43-89	11-29	18-24	13	12	116.2	121.4	98.5
Mar 14	SAC	109–118	39-84	9-27	22-29	13	9	106.9	116.8	101.5
Mar 13	CHI	119–108	46-96	9-32	18-24	6	10	116.7	105.9	102.0
Mar 11	MIN	153–128	52-82	19-37	30-36	10	7	148.5	125.5	102.5
Mar 9	NYK	126–118	43-93	18-39	22-26	8	–	124.8	116.8	101.0
Mar 7	@MEM	123–120	41-82	4-17	37-45	15	–	128.1	122.4	97.0
Mar 6	@SAS	112–116	42-86	12-33	16-20	9	–	113.1	118.4	98.5
Mar 4	IND	130–107	49-89	12-32	20-25	11	5	125.0	103.9	103.5
Mar 2	@GSW	114–101	42-85	9-31	21-23	14	14	118.8	106.3	95.5

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 18	LAC	124–109	44-83	16-37	20-21	18	13	130.5	113.5	95.5
Mar 16	DAL	129–111	48-95	11-35	22-34	14	12	118.3	101.8	109.0
Mar 13	@HOU	105–107	37-84	13-32	18-26	13	15	111.7	113.8	94.0
Mar 11	TOR	122–111	45-88	14-29	18-24	15	10	118.4	108.8	102.5
Mar 8	WAS	138–118	47-89	7-23	37-47	8	–	131.4	113.5	104.5
Mar 6	@PHX	116–118	37-83	10-28	32-37	14	–	122.1	122.9	95.5
Mar 5	@SAC	133–123	49-98	12-34	23-27	11	–	126.7	116.0	105.5
Mar 3	@LAL	101–110	38-90	8-29	17-19	18	10	98.1	106.8	103.0
Mar 1	@LAC	117–137	40-89	12-33	25-30	16	14	117.0	134.3	101.0
Feb 28	@UTA	115–105	39-85	15-44	22-29	19	12	112.7	104.0	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

the forecast favored LAC

7 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +6 for NOP

379th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

765th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAC	NOP
Final score	99	105
Field goals	35–76 · 46.1%	37–78 · 47.4%
Three-pointers	10–32 · 31.3%	13–34 · 38.2%
Free throws	19–32 · 59.4%	18–22 · 81.8%
Rebounds	39	40
Assists	20	21
Turnovers	15	16
Steals	11	11
Blocks	2	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)	−1	+6	+7
Total points	235	204	−31
LAC points	118	99	−19
NOP points	117	105	−12

Recent form before this game