The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET

LAL 3–1@LAC 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAL 39 percent, LAC 61 percent. LAL Lakers 39% proj. 111 · final 103 LAC Clippers · home 61% proj. 115 · final 87
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers 111 103 −8
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 115 87 −28

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAC

  • Home court+2.1 LACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+3.0 LACLAL without Luka Dončić (36 ppg) and Ziaire Williams (11 ppg); LAC without Rui Hachimura (10 ppg).
  • Team strength+1.4 LALElo LAC 1527, LAL 1570; season margin LAC +1.5, LAL +2.4.
  • Recent form+0.5 LACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAC scores 112.2 and allows 113.5; LAL scores 115.3 and allows 116.6.

Together: LAC by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAC is 1–2, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 110). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.2% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +1.4, offensive rebounding −1.1. Their defense lets opponents rebound 29% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.0, shooting defense +1.0. Rui Hachimura (10 ppg) is out.

LAL is 3–1, winning by 8 a game on average (scoring 128, allowing 120). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 14.9% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +4, getting to the line +1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Luka Dončić and Ziaire Williams are out (47 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAC; left favors LAL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +3.0, Team strength −1.4, Recent form +0.5, No playoff context +0.4, Rest and schedule +0.2, giving +4.8 for LAC. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +3.0 Team strength −1.4 Recent form +0.5 No playoff context +0.4 Rest and schedule +0.2 Projected margin +4.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.8. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputLALLACEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15701527 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +27 −1.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.4+1.5 −0.2
Games played this season 43 −0.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.3112.2 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.6113.5 +1.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.3 −0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 47.310.3 +3.0
Rest days 13 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAC ptsLAL ptsMargin
Rotation points missing (away)47.3+0.96−1.51+2.48
Elo gap incl. home court27.3−0.83+0.43−1.25
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)116.6+0.97+0.02+0.94
Rotation points missing (home)10.3+0.60+0.04+0.56
Games played (away)4.0+0.19+0.72−0.54
Home series wins0.0+0.40+0.05+0.35
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.5−0.02−0.34+0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.2−0.39−0.09−0.29
Combined pace, last 1098.3−1.61−1.32−0.29
Season scoring margin (away)2.4−0.15+0.12−0.28
Games played (home)3.0+0.49+0.23+0.26
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)115.3+0.05+0.27−0.22
Elo rating (home)1527.3−0.03−0.19+0.16
Season scoring margin (home)1.5+0.09−0.04+0.12
Rest days (home)3.0+0.10−0.01+0.11
Elo rating (away)1570.0+0.09−0.02+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.01+0.06
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1570LAC15271.0 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1570

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 4 games: +5.7
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
  • LPOR129–136−12.2

LAC1527

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 3 games: −1.9
  • WSAC121–96+6.8
  • L@LAL117–125−5.9
  • L@OKC101–108−2.8
Season scoring marginLAL+2.4LAC+1.50.4 pts toward LAL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+2.4

Scores 128.2, allows 120.2 over 4 games: +8.0 a game.

20% this season (+8.0) + 80% last season (+1.0) = +2.4

LAC+1.5

Scores 113.0, allows 109.7 over 3 games: +3.3 a game.

15% this season (+3.3) + 85% last season (+1.1) = +1.5

Offensive rating, last 10LAL115.3LAC112.20.5 pts toward LAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL115.3scored, +0.7 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.5%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.9%12.2%−3.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.210+1.3
Everything else−0.0

LAC112.2scored, −2.4 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.5%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210−0.4
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10LAL116.6LAC113.51.3 pts toward LAC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAL116.6allowed, +2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210−0.3
Everything else+1.0

LAC113.5allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210−0.3
Everything else+0.7
Pace, last 10average 98.30.3 pts toward LAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 97.0 and LAC 99.6 → average 98.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAL47.3LAC10.33.0 pts toward LAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL47.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Luka Dončić36.035.54
Ziaire Williams11.228.44

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAC10.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Rui Hachimura10.331.23

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAL1 daysLAC3 days0.2 pts toward LAC

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against POR.

LAC3days

Last played Oct 25 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27POR129–13645-8017-4322-30156129.0133.3101.0
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5
Apr 29HOU93–9932-767-2722-271513103.3110.090.0

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@OKC101–10837-8115-3812-1526899.0105.9102.0
Oct 23@LAL117–12541-8316-3719-252511113.6122.5102.5
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5
Mar 31POR104–11438-7610-3018-23148114.3123.991.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −16 for LAC
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
26th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLALLAC
Final score10387
Field goals35–79 · 44.3%26–74 · 35.1%
Three-pointers9–31 · 29.0%10–31 · 32.3%
Free throws24–33 · 72.7%25–27 · 92.6%
Rebounds4841
Assists1617
Turnovers1924
Steals1513
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)+4−16−20
Total points226190−36
LAL points111103−8
LAC points11587−28

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 vs POR L 129–136
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123
Oct 23 vs LAC W 125–117
Oct 21 vs GSW W 127–105
May 11 vs OKC L 110–115

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at OKC L 101–108
Oct 23 at LAL L 117–125
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110
Apr 10 at POR L 97–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 23 2026-27 LAC at LAL LAC 117 – 125 LAL
Feb 20 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 122 – 125 LAL
Jan 22 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 104 – 112 LAC
Dec 20 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 88 – 103 LAC
Nov 25 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 118 – 135 LAL