The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

LAC 1–0@LAL 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 44 percent, LAL 56 percent. LAC Clippers 44% proj. 111 · final 117 LAL Lakers · home 56% proj. 113 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 111 117 +6
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 113 125 +12

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAL

  • Home court+2.1 LALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+0.6 LACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAL scores 109.2 and allows 113.2; LAC scores 115.0 and allows 113.1.
  • Team strength+0.5 LALElo LAL 1572, LAC 1536; season margin LAL +2.1, LAC +2.3.

Together: LAL by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAL is 1–0, winning by 22 a game on average (scoring 127, allowing 105). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.1, shooting −1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions.

LAC is 1–0, winning by 25 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 96). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.5% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.9 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAL; left favors LAC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −0.6, Team strength +0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +2.4 for LAL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −0.6 Team strength +0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +2.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.4. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputLACLALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15361572 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +106 +0.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.3+2.1 +0.2
Games played this season 11 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.0109.2 −0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.1113.2 +0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.8 −0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAL ptsLAC ptsMargin
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.73−0.08+0.82
Elo gap incl. home court105.8+0.32−0.47+0.79
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.19+0.60−0.79
Games played (away)1.0+0.28+1.00−0.72
Combined pace, last 1096.8−3.43−2.74−0.69
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.2+0.28−0.22+0.50
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.2−0.34±0.00−0.34
Home series wins0.0+0.31+0.04+0.27
Elo rating (home)1571.8−0.00−0.25+0.25
Season scoring margin (home)2.1+0.17−0.01+0.18
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.1−0.18−0.09−0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.01+0.04
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)115.0+0.06+0.03+0.04
Season scoring margin (away)2.3+0.10+0.07+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Elo rating (away)1535.9−0.04−0.01−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Games played (home)1.0+0.60+0.61−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1536LAL15721.0 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1536

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
  2. This season's 1 game: +6.8
  • WSAC121–96+6.8

LAL1572

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 1 game: +7.5
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
Season scoring marginLAC+2.3LAL+2.10.5 pts toward LAC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+2.3

Scores 121.0, allows 96.0 over 1 game: +25.0 a game.

5% this season (+25.0) + 95% last season (+1.1) = +2.3

LAL+2.1

Scores 127.0, allows 105.0 over 1 game: +22.0 a game.

5% this season (+22.0) + 95% last season (+1.0) = +2.1

Offensive rating, last 10LAC115.0LAL109.20.3 pts toward LAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC115.0scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210+0.0
Everything else−0.5

LAL109.2scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.9%12.2%−5.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2470.210+1.1
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10LAC113.1LAL113.20.4 pts toward LAL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

LAC113.1allowed, −1.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2100.210+0.0
Everything else−0.1

LAL113.2allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.5%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210+0.1
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 96.80.7 pts toward LAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 99.3 and LAL 94.3 → average 96.8 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0LAL0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestLAC2 daysLAL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 21 against SAC.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 21 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21SAC121–9643-8214-3521-311711116.391.4104.5
Apr 12GSW115–11042-8914-3917-191010121.1117.094.5
Apr 10@POR97–11636-8313-4012-12169102.1122.195.0
Apr 8OKC110–12840-8614-3216-241310111.1129.399.0
Apr 7DAL116–10341-9214-3720-281411109.497.2106.0
Apr 5@SAC138–10949-9220-4120-211410135.3105.8102.5
Apr 2SAS99–11840-935-2714-181010100.0120.498.5
Mar 31POR104–11438-7610-3018-23148114.3123.991.5
Mar 29@MIL127–11345-7713-3024-28167125.7111.9101.0
Mar 27@IND114–11341-9613-3419-271116115.2111.9100.0

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5
May 1@HOU98–7836-8912-2814-241015106.583.992.5
Apr 29HOU93–9932-767-2722-271513103.3110.090.0
Apr 26@HOU96–11537-745-2217-212310103.2122.393.5
Apr 24@HOU112–10838-7912-2924-32209105.7104.994.6
Apr 21HOU101–9433-7213-2822-28129112.2105.689.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +8 for LAL
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACLAL
Final score117125
Field goals41–83 · 49.4%46–79 · 58.2%
Three-pointers16–37 · 43.2%14–32 · 43.8%
Free throws19–25 · 76.0%19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds3537
Assists2429
Turnovers2521
Steals1313
Blocks49

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+2+8+6
Total points224242+18
LAC points111117+6
LAL points113125+12

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs SAC W 121–96
Apr 12 vs GSW W 115–110
Apr 10 at POR L 97–116
Apr 8 vs OKC L 110–128
Apr 7 vs DAL W 116–103

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs GSW W 127–105
May 11 vs OKC L 110–115
May 9 vs OKC L 108–131
May 7 at OKC L 107–125
May 5 at OKC L 90–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 20 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 122 – 125 LAL
Jan 22 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 104 – 112 LAC
Dec 20 2025-26 LAL at LAC LAL 88 – 103 LAC
Nov 25 2025-26 LAC at LAL LAC 118 – 135 LAL
Mar 2 2024-25 LAC at LAL LAC 102 – 108 LAL