The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 23

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers

Saturday, December 23, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 2–0@LAC 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 47 percent, LAC 53 percent. BOS Celtics 47% proj. 115 · final 145 LAC Clippers · home 53% proj. 114 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 115 145 +30
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 114 108 −6

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 47% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSLAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16841588
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −26
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +9.2+5.5
Games played this season 2728
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 125.1125.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.7116.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 19.829.3
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1684LAC1588

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1684

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
  2. First 17 games: +42.2
  3. Last 10 games: +26.0
  • WCHI124–97+5.4
  • WPHI125–119+4.9
  • L@IND112–122−15.0
  • WNYK133–123+5.7
  • WCLE120–113+3.7
  • WCLE116–107+4.1
  • WORL128–111+6.1
  • WORL114–97+5.8
  • L@GSW126–132−10.3
  • W@SAC144–119+15.6

LAC1588

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1520 → started this one at 1515
  2. First 18 games: +0.2
  3. Last 10 games: +73.0
  • WGSW113–112+3.3
  • WDEN111–102+10.9
  • W@UTA117–103+9.4
  • WPOR132–127+2.1
  • WSAC119–99+12.4
  • WGSW121–113+6.0
  • WNYK144–122+14.8
  • W@IND151–127+17.5
  • W@DAL120–111+8.8
  • L@OKC115–134−12.2
Season scoring marginBOS+9.2LAC+5.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+9.2

Scores 118.9, allows 109.8 over 27 games: +9.2 a game.

LAC+5.5

Scores 117.0, allows 111.5 over 28 games: +5.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS125.1LAC125.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.7).

BOS125.1scored, +10.3 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.0%54.5%+6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.8%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%24.9%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.204−0.5
Everything else+2.2

LAC125.1scored, +10.4 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.9%54.5%+8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%11.8%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%24.9%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.204+0.6
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10BOS114.7LAC116.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.7).

BOS114.7allowed, −0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.5%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.8%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%24.9%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1550.204+1.4
Everything else−0.0

LAC116.3allowed, +1.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.5%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%11.8%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.9%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.204+0.2
Everything else−1.1
Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 98.4 and LAC 99.1 → average 98.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBOS19.8LAC29.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS19.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kristaps Porziņģis19.830.05

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAC29.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard29.335.39

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBOS3 daysLAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS3days

Last played Dec 20 against SAC.

LAC2days

Last played Dec 21 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 20@SAC144–11951-9222-4220-24914151.6124.095.5
Dec 19@GSW126–13247-11417-5815-17818117.8122.297.4
Dec 17ORL114–9745-9517-367-81410115.299.098.5
Dec 15ORL128–11148-9218-4214-20107129.3113.398.5
Dec 14CLE116–10743-8513-3617-201313119.6111.596.5
Dec 12CLE120–11338-8418-4426-261312123.7116.597.0
Dec 8NYK133–12348-9119-4718-2178134.3125.598.5
Dec 4@IND112–12246-9712-418-121712108.7119.6102.5
Dec 1PHI125–11939-7716-3331-362010121.4115.5103.0
Nov 28CHI124–9747-9021-499-121611129.2100.096.5

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 21@OKC115–13444-9317-4310-121512112.7134.0101.0
Dec 20@DAL120–11143-7711-3123-25127126.3118.194.5
Dec 18@IND151–12756-9819-3820-23119145.2123.3103.5
Dec 16NYK144–12250-8816-3328-3488141.2120.8101.5
Dec 14GSW121–11341-8113-3226-301310127.4117.795.5
Dec 12SAC119–9944-8411-2920-21155115.597.1102.5
Dec 11POR132–12749-8913-3421-2299136.1130.997.0
Dec 8@UTA117–10343-8815-3416-211211119.4104.098.5
Dec 6DEN111–10240-8712-2719-251113114.4106.396.5
Dec 2GSW113–11244-9013-3912-14115113.0110.9100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
36 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual −37 for LAC
365th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
21st
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSLAC
Final score145108
Field goals49–94 · 52.1%41–89 · 46.1%
Three-pointers25–53 · 47.2%11–34 · 32.4%
Free throws22–28 · 78.6%15–15 · 100.0%
Rebounds5134
Assists3325
Turnovers910
Steals44
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)−1−37−36
Total points229253+24
BOS points115145+30
LAC points114108−6

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
BOS28403839–145
LAC21303027–108

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Dec 20 at SAC W 144–119
Dec 19 at GSW L 126–132
Dec 17 vs ORL W 114–97
Dec 15 vs ORL W 128–111
Dec 14 vs CLE W 116–107

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 21 at OKC L 115–134
Dec 20 at DAL W 120–111
Dec 18 at IND W 151–127
Dec 16 vs NYK W 144–122
Dec 14 vs GSW W 121–113

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 29 2022-23 LAC at BOS LAC 110 – 116 BOS
Dec 12 2022-23 BOS at LAC BOS 93 – 113 LAC
Dec 29 2021-22 LAC at BOS LAC 91 – 82 BOS
Dec 8 2021-22 BOS at LAC BOS 111 – 114 LAC