2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
MIN 0–0@LAC 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Minnesota Timberwolves | 104 | 108 | +4 |
| LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) | 109 | 80 | −29 |
Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1560 | 1564 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +74 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.3 | +3.1 |
| Games played this season | 20 | 23 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 109.3 | 113.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.3 | 104.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.5 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 25.1 | 42.7 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIN1560LAC1564
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIN1560
- Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
- First 10 games: −9.7
- Last 10 games: −48.5
- L@POR108–122−23.1
- L@POR98–106−14.6
- W@SAC130–126+7.4
- WPHX120–117+4.0
- L@TOR105–110−12.0
- L@BOS105–107−1.9
- LHOU111–117−9.7
- LSAC104–115−16.7
- WLAC93–92+3.3
- WLAL109–80+14.8
LAC1564
- Ended last season at 1508 → started this one at 1506
- First 13 games: +2.9
- Last 10 games: +55.2
- WUTA116–105+4.1
- WGSW102–99+7.0
- WORL104–93+9.7
- WSAC104–88+10.8
- W@PHI125–99+16.5
- L@BOS94–126−8.5
- W@WAS121–96+7.5
- L@MIN92–93−3.3
- WDEN126–122+5.5
- WPOR127–105+5.9
Season scoring marginMIN+2.3LAC+3.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIN+2.3
Scores 111.0, allows 108.8 over 20 games: +2.3 a game.
LAC+3.1
Scores 110.0, allows 106.9 over 23 games: +3.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIN109.3LAC113.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).
MIN109.3scored, −3.3 vs league
| Factor | MIN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.5% | 54.1% | −0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.0% | 12.5% | −2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.7% | 24.8% | −1.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.223 | 0.198 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
LAC113.8scored, +1.2 vs league
| Factor | LAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.4% | 54.1% | +1.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.5% | −1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.6% | 24.8% | +1.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.180 | 0.198 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
Defensive rating, last 10MIN110.3LAC104.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).
MIN110.3allowed, −2.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.1% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.0% | 12.5% | +2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.6% | 24.8% | +0.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.181 | 0.198 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
LAC104.5allowed, −8.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.9% | 54.1% | +1.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.9% | 12.5% | +3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.4% | 24.8% | +1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.187 | 0.198 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.2 |
Pace, last 10average 97.5
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIN 97.0 and LAC 98.0 → average 97.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingMIN25.1LAC42.7
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIN25.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 25.1 | 37.7 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-12-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
LAC42.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 25.0 | 27.6 | 4 |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | 10.4 | 22.5 | 8 |
| Terance Mann | 7.3 | 19.8 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-12-04 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestMIN2 daysLAC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIN2days
Last played Dec 2 against LAL.
LAC1day, back-to-back
Last played Dec 3 against POR.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2 | LAL | 109–80 | 41-81 | 15-35 | 12-15 | 15 | 7 | 112.4 | 82.5 | 97.0 |
| Nov 29 | LAC | 93–92 | 31-75 | 15-39 | 16-20 | 21 | 11 | 97.9 | 97.9 | 94.5 |
| Nov 27 | SAC | 104–115 | 33-74 | 14-39 | 24-27 | 15 | 4 | 104.0 | 116.2 | 99.5 |
| Nov 26 | HOU | 111–117 | 42-98 | 9-38 | 18-20 | 17 | 14 | 104.7 | 108.3 | 96.9 |
| Nov 24 | @BOS | 105–107 | 37-88 | 15-41 | 16-21 | 8 | 11 | 116.7 | 118.9 | 90.0 |
| Nov 21 | @TOR | 105–110 | 33-80 | 12-35 | 27-33 | 17 | 10 | 107.1 | 112.2 | 98.0 |
| Nov 17 | PHX | 120–117 | 42-80 | 17-39 | 19-26 | 14 | 9 | 125.0 | 121.9 | 96.0 |
| Nov 15 | @SAC | 130–126 | 48-101 | 20-49 | 14-16 | 11 | 10 | 121.5 | 120.0 | 96.0 |
| Nov 13 | @POR | 98–106 | 37-94 | 7-39 | 17-22 | 13 | 13 | 97.0 | 103.9 | 101.5 |
| Nov 12 | @POR | 108–122 | 37-73 | 13-35 | 21-23 | 21 | 4 | 106.9 | 120.8 | 101.0 |
LAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3 | POR | 127–105 | 47-85 | 19-37 | 14-17 | 13 | 10 | 138.0 | 114.1 | 92.0 |
| Dec 1 | DEN | 126–122 | 43-90 | 18-39 | 22-27 | 14 | 13 | 123.5 | 119.6 | 102.0 |
| Nov 29 | @MIN | 92–93 | 36-84 | 10-31 | 10-13 | 15 | 8 | 97.9 | 97.9 | 94.5 |
| Nov 27 | @WAS | 121–96 | 45-89 | 12-33 | 19-25 | 13 | 13 | 118.6 | 93.2 | 102.5 |
| Nov 25 | @BOS | 94–126 | 39-90 | 7-26 | 9-13 | 13 | 10 | 95.9 | 127.3 | 98.5 |
| Nov 24 | @PHI | 125–99 | 47-81 | 12-30 | 19-25 | 17 | 9 | 130.2 | 102.1 | 96.5 |
| Nov 22 | SAC | 104–88 | 39-94 | 10-42 | 16-16 | 12 | 10 | 104.0 | 88.0 | 100.0 |
| Nov 20 | ORL | 104–93 | 38-77 | 11-22 | 17-21 | 22 | 15 | 109.5 | 95.9 | 96.0 |
| Nov 18 | GSW | 102–99 | 35-82 | 16-34 | 16-18 | 17 | 5 | 100.0 | 96.1 | 102.5 |
| Nov 17 | UTA | 116–105 | 46-94 | 11-40 | 13-17 | 9 | 14 | 120.8 | 110.5 | 95.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 108 | 80 |
| Field goals | 41–85 · 48.2% | 29–83 · 34.9% |
| Three-pointers | 16–44 · 36.4% | 11–40 · 27.5% |
| Free throws | 10–18 · 55.6% | 11–13 · 84.6% |
| Rebounds | 50 | 46 |
| Assists | 31 | 13 |
| Turnovers | 14 | 21 |
| Steals | 15 | 7 |
| Blocks | 5 | 2 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Los Angeles Clippers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (LAC) | +5 | −28 | −33 |
| Total points | 213 | 188 | −25 |
| MIN points | 104 | 108 | +4 |
| LAC points | 109 | 80 | −29 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 33 | 26 | 27 | 22 | – | 108 |
| LAC | 14 | 18 | 18 | 30 | – | 80 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 2024-25 | LAC at MIN | LAC 92 – 93 MIN |
| Mar 12 2023-24 | MIN at LAC | MIN 118 – 100 LAC |
| Mar 3 2023-24 | LAC at MIN | LAC 89 – 88 MIN |
| Feb 12 2023-24 | MIN at LAC | MIN 121 – 100 LAC |
| Jan 14 2023-24 | LAC at MIN | LAC 105 – 109 MIN |