2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, March 14, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET
SAC 4–1@LAC 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | 109 | 118 | +9 |
| LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) | 125 | 109 | −16 |
Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 86% win probability, projected margin 16.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | SAC | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1316 | 1587 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +341 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −10.2 | +1.0 |
| Games played this season | 67 | 66 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 112.3 | 121.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 118.5 | 113.2 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 31.2 | 8.2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingSAC1316LAC1587
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
SAC1316
- Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
- First 57 games: −207.3
- Last 10 games: +24.5
- L@SAS122–139−1.6
- W@MEM123–114+17.6
- L@HOU97–128−3.9
- W@DAL130–121+17.1
- L@LAL104–128−5.2
- LPHX103–114−6.6
- LNOP123–133−9.8
- WCHI126–110+15.0
- WIND114–109+5.1
- LCHA109–117−3.2
LAC1587
- Ended last season at 1636 → started this one at 1602
- First 56 games: −50.5
- Last 10 games: +35.7
- LORL109–111−7.3
- LMIN88–94−9.4
- WNOP137–117+6.8
- W@GSW114–101+13.9
- WIND130–107+4.2
- L@SAS112–116−2.6
- W@MEM123–120+4.1
- WNYK126–118+9.9
- WMIN153–128+13.0
- WCHI119–108+3.1
Season scoring marginSAC−10.2LAC+1.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
SAC−10.2
Scores 110.6, allows 120.9 over 67 games: −10.2 a game.
LAC+1.0
Scores 113.5, allows 112.5 over 66 games: +1.0 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10SAC112.3LAC121.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
SAC112.3scored, −2.2 vs league
| Factor | SAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.7% | 54.4% | −4.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.2% | +3.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.189 | 0.210 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
LAC121.7scored, +7.1 vs league
| Factor | LAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.4% | +3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.9% | 12.2% | +3.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.277 | 0.210 | +1.9 | |
| Everything else | −1.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10SAC118.5LAC113.2
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
SAC118.5allowed, +4.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.1% | 54.4% | −4.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.5% | 12.2% | +0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.209 | 0.210 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.5 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
LAC113.2allowed, −1.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 54.4% | +0.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.8% | 12.2% | +0.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.210 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
SAC 102.4 and LAC 99.1 → average 100.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingSAC31.2LAC8.2
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
SAC31.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Monk | 13.2 | 21.2 | 9 |
| Keegan Murray | 9.7 | 26.1 | 3 |
| Devin Carter | 8.3 | 15.1 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-14 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
LAC8.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yanic Konan Niederhäuser | 8.2 | 18.2 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-14 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestSAC3 daysLAC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
SAC3days
Last played Mar 11 against CHA.
LAC1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 13 against CHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
SAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | CHA | 109–117 | 45-83 | 8-25 | 11-14 | 13 | 7 | 116.0 | 121.9 | 95.0 |
| Mar 10 | IND | 114–109 | 41-90 | 7-20 | 25-30 | 11 | 8 | 106.5 | 103.8 | 106.0 |
| Mar 8 | CHI | 126–110 | 47-105 | 11-29 | 21-23 | 3 | – | 122.3 | 105.8 | 103.5 |
| Mar 5 | NOP | 123–133 | 50-99 | 8-31 | 15-23 | 7 | – | 116.0 | 126.7 | 105.5 |
| Mar 3 | PHX | 103–114 | 41-90 | 7-27 | 14-18 | 14 | 13 | 104.0 | 115.2 | 99.0 |
| Mar 1 | @LAL | 104–128 | 42-90 | 6-26 | 14-15 | 20 | 14 | 103.0 | 126.7 | 101.0 |
| Feb 26 | @DAL | 130–121 | 51-101 | 8-26 | 20-25 | 4 | 16 | 125.0 | 116.3 | 104.0 |
| Feb 25 | @HOU | 97–128 | 37-93 | 7-32 | 16-20 | 12 | 13 | 100.0 | 132.0 | 97.0 |
| Feb 23 | @MEM | 123–114 | 47-94 | 10-29 | 19-25 | 15 | 13 | 119.4 | 110.7 | 103.0 |
| Feb 21 | @SAS | 122–139 | 45-96 | 9-32 | 23-25 | 12 | – | 110.9 | 126.4 | 110.0 |
LAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | CHI | 119–108 | 46-96 | 9-32 | 18-24 | 6 | 10 | 116.7 | 105.9 | 102.0 |
| Mar 11 | MIN | 153–128 | 52-82 | 19-37 | 30-36 | 10 | 7 | 148.5 | 125.5 | 102.5 |
| Mar 9 | NYK | 126–118 | 43-93 | 18-39 | 22-26 | 8 | – | 124.8 | 116.8 | 101.0 |
| Mar 7 | @MEM | 123–120 | 41-82 | 4-17 | 37-45 | 15 | – | 128.1 | 122.4 | 97.0 |
| Mar 6 | @SAS | 112–116 | 42-86 | 12-33 | 16-20 | 9 | – | 113.1 | 118.4 | 98.5 |
| Mar 4 | IND | 130–107 | 49-89 | 12-32 | 20-25 | 11 | 5 | 125.0 | 103.9 | 103.5 |
| Mar 2 | @GSW | 114–101 | 42-85 | 9-31 | 21-23 | 14 | 14 | 118.8 | 106.3 | 95.5 |
| Mar 1 | NOP | 137–117 | 48-89 | 17-36 | 24-29 | 8 | 10 | 134.3 | 117.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 26 | MIN | 88–94 | 30-74 | 5-22 | 23-29 | 18 | 6 | 92.6 | 97.9 | 95.5 |
| Feb 22 | ORL | 109–111 | 40-83 | 5-23 | 24-28 | 9 | – | 114.7 | 118.1 | 94.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | SAC | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 118 | 109 |
| Field goals | 48–82 · 58.5% | 39–84 · 46.4% |
| Three-pointers | 12–27 · 44.4% | 9–27 · 33.3% |
| Free throws | 10–16 · 62.5% | 22–29 · 75.9% |
| Rebounds | 48 | 35 |
| Assists | 29 | 19 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 13 |
| Steals | 9 | 13 |
| Blocks | 4 | 8 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Los Angeles Clippers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (LAC) | +16 | −9 | −25 |
| Total points | 234 | 227 | −7 |
| SAC points | 109 | 118 | +9 |
| LAC points | 125 | 109 | −16 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6 2025-26 | LAC at SAC | LAC 114 – 111 SAC |
| Dec 30 2025-26 | SAC at LAC | SAC 90 – 131 LAC |
| Apr 11 2024-25 | LAC at SAC | LAC 101 – 100 SAC |
| Mar 9 2024-25 | SAC at LAC | SAC 110 – 111 LAC |
| Nov 22 2024-25 | SAC at LAC | SAC 88 – 104 LAC |