The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 25

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks

Thursday, January 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 1–0@NYK 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 41 percent, NYK 59 percent. DEN Nuggets 41% proj. 108 · final 84 NYK Knicks · home 59% proj. 110 · final 122
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 108 84 −24
NYK New York Knicks (home) 110 122 +12

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDENNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16321625
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +63
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.0+4.6
Games played this season 4544
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 122.5116.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.2103.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1632NYK1625

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1632

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1676 → started this one at 1632
  2. First 35 games: −9.9
  3. Last 10 games: +10.1
  • W@GSW130–127+4.9
  • LORL120–122−8.5
  • WDET131–114+1.4
  • L@UTA111–124−14.5
  • WNOP125–113+9.5
  • WIND117–109+5.5
  • L@PHI121–126−6.1
  • W@BOS102–100+8.0
  • W@WAS113–104+3.4
  • W@IND114–109+6.5

NYK1625

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. First 34 games: +1.9
  3. Last 10 games: +57.2
  • W@PHI128–92+39.8
  • W@WAS121–105+5.4
  • WPOR112–84+3.7
  • L@DAL124–128−7.9
  • W@MEM106–94+8.6
  • LORL94–98−11.2
  • WHOU109–94+5.1
  • WWAS113–109+1.2
  • WTOR126–100+7.8
  • W@BKN108–103+4.7
Season scoring marginDEN+5.0NYK+4.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+5.0

Scores 115.9, allows 110.9 over 45 games: +5.0 a game.

NYK+4.6

Scores 115.0, allows 110.4 over 44 games: +4.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DEN122.5NYK116.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

DEN122.5scored, +7.3 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.8%+7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.6%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%24.4%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.205+0.3
Everything else−0.7

NYK116.8scored, +1.6 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.8%+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%11.6%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.1%24.4%+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.205+0.4
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10DEN118.2NYK103.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

DEN118.2allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.1%54.8%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)9.4%11.6%−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%24.4%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.205−0.1
Everything else+1.1

NYK103.6allowed, −11.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.4%54.8%+8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.6%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.9%24.4%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1670.205+1.1
Everything else+1.2
Pace, last 10average 97.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 97.0 and NYK 97.5 → average 97.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Jan 23 against IND.

NYK2days

Last played Jan 23 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 23@IND114–10944-8811-3315-171011121.3113.595.0
Jan 21@WAS113–10443-888-2219-281313113.0106.199.0
Jan 19@BOS102–10042-818-3110-13910118.6116.386.0
Jan 16@PHI121–12645-8912-2919-251016131.5134.093.0
Jan 14IND117–10946-7110-2015-23214117.0109.0100.0
Jan 12NOP125–11350-9014-3311-151510123.8111.9101.0
Jan 10@UTA111–12437-8113-3324-28167111.0122.8100.5
Jan 7DET131–11447-8010-2727-31124133.7116.398.0
Jan 5ORL120–12248-959-3315-19138116.5119.6102.5
Jan 4@GSW130–12748-859-2625-29711138.3132.395.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 23@BKN108–10340-8610-2918-191311116.1112.092.5
Jan 20TOR126–10048-8814-3916-202115123.598.0102.0
Jan 18WAS113–10939-8613-3822-26177109.7104.8103.5
Jan 17HOU109–9439-8713-3718-221212114.798.995.0
Jan 15ORL94–9833-8313-4015-22913106.8114.087.0
Jan 13@MEM106–9440-8313-3813-192215108.294.998.5
Jan 11@DAL124–12844-8914-4222-281413125.3128.099.5
Jan 9POR112–8437-8918-4820-231415116.788.495.5
Jan 6@WAS121–10543-8714-3621-241411118.6105.0101.0
Jan 5@PHI128–9243-8918-4124-251110128.092.0100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
36 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +38 for NYK
750th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
21st
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENNYK
Final score84122
Field goals34–84 · 40.5%45–85 · 52.9%
Three-pointers5–26 · 19.2%15–38 · 39.5%
Free throws11–13 · 84.6%17–20 · 85.0%
Rebounds4044
Assists2026
Turnovers198
Steals212
Blocks23

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+2+38+36
Total points218206−12
DEN points10884−24
NYK points110122+12

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DEN21202518–84
NYK33293624–122

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Jan 23 at IND W 114–109
Jan 21 at WAS W 113–104
Jan 19 at BOS W 102–100
Jan 16 at PHI L 121–126
Jan 14 vs IND W 117–109

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 23 at BKN W 108–103
Jan 20 vs TOR W 126–100
Jan 18 vs WAS W 113–109
Jan 17 vs HOU W 109–94
Jan 15 vs ORL L 94–98

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 18 2022-23 DEN at NYK DEN 110 – 116 NYK
Nov 16 2022-23 NYK at DEN NYK 106 – 103 DEN
Feb 8 2021-22 NYK at DEN NYK 115 – 132 DEN
Dec 4 2021-22 DEN at NYK DEN 113 – 99 NYK