The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 16

2023-24 · Playoffs · Final

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Thursday, May 16, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 1–2@MIN 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 35 percent, MIN 65 percent. DEN Nuggets 35% proj. 105 · final 70 MIN Timberwolves · home 65% proj. 110 · final 115
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 105 70 −35
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 110 115 +5

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDENMIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16851659
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +44
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.0+6.3
Games played this season 9291
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.4115.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.8113.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 93.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1685MIN1659

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1685

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1676 → started this one at 1632
  2. First 82 games: +24.4
  3. Last 10 games: +28.5
  • WLAL114–103+5.8
  • WLAL101–99+2.4
  • W@LAL112–105+7.6
  • L@LAL108–119−12.8
  • WLAL108–106+2.5
  • LMIN99–106−10.0
  • LMIN80–106−21.9
  • W@MIN117–90+32.7
  • W@MIN115–107+12.2
  • WMIN112–97+10.0

MIN1659

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
  2. First 81 games: +157.4
  3. Last 10 games: −1.4
  • LPHX106–125−23.4
  • WPHX120–95+14.2
  • WPHX105–93+7.6
  • W@PHX126–109+15.8
  • W@PHX122–116+7.4
  • W@DEN106–99+10.0
  • W@DEN106–80+21.9
  • LDEN90–117−32.7
  • LDEN107–115−12.2
  • L@DEN97–112−10.0
Season scoring marginDEN+5.0MIN+6.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+5.0

Scores 114.0, allows 109.0 over 92 games: +5.0 a game.

MIN+6.3

Scores 112.6, allows 106.3 over 91 games: +6.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DEN113.4MIN115.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

DEN113.4scored, −1.0 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.7%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%11.6%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%24.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.194−0.7
Everything else−0.3

MIN115.7scored, +1.2 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%54.7%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%11.6%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%24.1%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2370.194+1.2
Everything else−0.8
Defensive rating, last 10DEN109.8MIN113.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

DEN109.8allowed, −4.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.7%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%11.6%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.6%24.1%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.194+0.7
Everything else+2.1

MIN113.8allowed, −0.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.7%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%11.6%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%24.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.194−1.1
Everything else+1.2
Pace, last 10average 93.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 94.3 and MIN 93.5 → average 93.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 98.9)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0MIN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-05-16 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-05-16 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played May 14 against MIN.

MIN2days

Last played May 14 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 14MIN112–9744-809-1915-18118121.7106.691.5
May 12@MIN115–10745-7913-2912-15125123.7113.893.5
May 10@MIN117–9043-8014-2917-20108125.897.892.5
May 6MIN80–10629-839-3013-18161887.9116.591.0
May 4MIN99–10635-7513-3116-20123107.6115.292.0
Apr 29LAL108–10642-8916-388-9139116.1111.694.0
Apr 27@LAL108–11939-879-3021-25149105.9115.5102.5
Apr 25@LAL112–10544-905-2819-221314115.5106.198.0
Apr 22LAL101–9939-888-3415-1799108.6105.393.5
Apr 20LAL114–10347-10215-425-6415121.3109.694.0

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 14@DEN97–11238-788-2613-19148106.6121.791.5
May 12DEN107–11539-8211-2818-271112113.8123.793.5
May 10DEN90–11731-7110-3318-2514597.8125.892.5
May 6@DEN106–8042-8413-339-141210116.587.991.0
May 4@DEN106–9943-8211-279-12147115.2107.692.0
Apr 28@PHX122–11641-8915-3625-31917131.2127.592.0
Apr 26@PHX126–10943-8713-3427-311315126.0112.498.5
Apr 23PHX105–9335-789-3226-301310111.798.994.0
Apr 20PHX120–9544-8812-3220-221413123.799.096.5
Apr 14PHX106–12536-709-2625-312412114.0133.093.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
65%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
40 pts
margin miss
forecast +5, actual +45 for MIN
969th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENMIN
Final score70115
Field goals26–86 · 30.2%40–86 · 46.5%
Three-pointers7–36 · 19.4%15–40 · 37.5%
Free throws11–14 · 78.6%20–24 · 83.3%
Rebounds4362
Assists1826
Turnovers126
Steals29
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+5+45+40
Total points215185−30
DEN points10570−35
MIN points110115+5

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DEN1426219–70
MIN31282729–115

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
May 14 vs MIN W 112–97
May 12 at MIN W 115–107
May 10 at MIN W 117–90
May 6 vs MIN L 80–106
May 4 vs MIN L 99–106

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
May 14 at DEN L 97–112
May 12 vs DEN L 107–115
May 10 vs DEN L 90–117
May 6 at DEN W 106–80
May 4 at DEN W 106–99

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 14 2023-24 MIN at DEN MIN 97 – 112 DEN
May 12 2023-24 DEN at MIN DEN 115 – 107 MIN
May 10 2023-24 DEN at MIN DEN 117 – 90 MIN
May 6 2023-24 MIN at DEN MIN 106 – 80 DEN
May 4 2023-24 MIN at DEN MIN 106 – 99 DEN