2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets

Saturday, November 22, 2025 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

SAC 0–1@DEN 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	111	128	+17
DEN Denver Nuggets (home)	128	123	−5

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 87% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	DEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1398	1666
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+337
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.7	+8.9
Games played this season	16	15
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.7	122.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.5	111.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.2	29.8
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1398DEN1666

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1398

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 6 games: −13.9
Last 10 games: −86.5

L@DEN124–130−3.3
WGSW121–116+7.8
LOKC101–132−11.1
LMIN117–144−16.0
LDEN108–122−8.4
LATL100–133−24.6
L@MIN110–124−3.7
L@SAS110–123−6.8
L@OKC99–113−1.7
L@MEM96–137−18.7

DEN1666

Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
First 5 games: +18.1
Last 10 games: +57.6

WSAC130–124+3.3
WMIA122–112+5.0
WGSW129–104+12.1
WIND117–100+7.2
W@SAC122–108+8.4
W@LAC130–116+10.3
W@MIN123–112+13.0
LCHI127–130−10.6
W@NOP125–118+2.3
W@HOU112–109+6.6

Season scoring marginSAC−10.7DEN+8.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−10.7

Scores 111.0, allows 124.4 over 16 games: −13.4 a game.

80% this season (−13.4) + 20% last season (+0.5) = −10.7

DEN+8.9

Scores 123.8, allows 112.8 over 15 games: +11.0 a game.

75% this season (+11.0) + 25% last season (+2.6) = +8.9

Offensive rating, last 10SAC104.7DEN122.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAC104.7scored, −9.9 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	54.5%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.7%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.3%	26.3%	−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.228	−0.9
Everything else			−1.4

DEN122.1scored, +7.4 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.5%	54.5%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.7%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.3%	26.3%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.261	0.228	+0.9
Everything else			−1.5

Defensive rating, last 10SAC122.5DEN111.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAC122.5allowed, +7.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	54.5%	−7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.7%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	26.3%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.225	0.228	+0.1
Everything else			−0.0

DEN111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.5%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.7%	−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	26.3%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.228	+0.7
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 102.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 103.9 and DEN 101.5 → average 102.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.4)

Rotation points missingSAC19.2DEN29.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC19.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Domantas Sabonis	19.2	32.4	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-22 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

DEN29.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Aaron Gordon	18.1	27.2	8
Christian Braun	11.7	28.5	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-22 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAC2 daysDEN1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC2days

Last played Nov 20 against MEM.

DEN1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 21 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 20	@MEM	96–137	37-80	11-33	11-15	16	4	96.0	137.0	100.0
Nov 19	@OKC	99–113	38-86	8-28	15-23	18	12	96.1	108.7	103.5
Nov 16	@SAS	110–123	41-87	12-33	16-22	12	5	108.9	119.4	102.0
Nov 14	@MIN	110–124	41-93	12-33	16-27	15	13	104.8	119.2	104.5
Nov 12	ATL	100–133	36-92	14-39	14-18	18	9	92.6	122.0	108.5
Nov 11	DEN	108–122	41-85	10-33	16-23	10	9	112.5	125.8	96.5
Nov 9	MIN	117–144	40-90	13-29	24-31	16	12	110.4	135.8	106.0
Nov 7	OKC	101–132	38-92	15-40	10-15	15	8	97.1	125.7	104.5
Nov 5	GSW	121–116	41-83	11-23	28-33	16	8	113.1	109.4	106.5
Nov 3	@DEN	124–130	47-90	9-27	21-25	15	8	115.9	121.5	107.0

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 21	@HOU	112–109	40-76	11-29	21-27	14	11	119.1	116.0	94.0
Nov 19	@NOP	125–118	46-83	11-31	22-27	20	9	116.8	109.3	107.5
Nov 17	CHI	127–130	46-97	14-36	21-25	8	13	119.8	125.0	105.0
Nov 15	@MIN	123–112	39-83	14-29	31-38	12	10	119.4	109.8	102.5
Nov 12	@LAC	130–116	44-84	13-34	29-35	11	11	134.0	118.4	97.5
Nov 11	@SAC	122–108	44-86	13-33	21-27	12	15	125.8	112.5	96.5
Nov 8	IND	117–100	45-93	8-27	19-23	16	15	114.7	95.2	103.5
Nov 7	GSW	129–104	46-82	16-33	21-25	8	7	134.4	108.3	96.0
Nov 5	MIA	122–112	43-101	11-40	25-28	16	21	115.1	105.7	106.0
Nov 3	SAC	130–124	50-97	12-38	18-24	7	8	121.5	115.9	107.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

13%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored DEN

22 pts

margin miss

forecast +17, actual −5 for DEN

4th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

158th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 2.07 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	DEN
Final score	128	123
Field goals	48–91 · 52.7%	45–92 · 48.9%
Three-pointers	10–30 · 33.3%	14–37 · 37.8%
Free throws	22–23 · 95.7%	19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds	37	38
Assists	32	28
Turnovers	6	13
Steals	8	1
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)	+17	−5	−22
Total points	239	251	+12
SAC points	111	128	+17
DEN points	128	123	−5

Recent form before this game