The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jun 4

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets

Sunday, June 4, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MIA 1–2@DEN 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 24 percent, DEN 76 percent. MIA Heat 24% proj. 100 · final 111 DEN Nuggets · home 76% proj. 111 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 100 111 +11
DEN Denver Nuggets (home) 111 108 −3

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMIADEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16271650
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +93
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.4+4.2
Games played this season 10198
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.3119.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.1111.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 94.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 33
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1627DEN1650

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1627

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1610
  2. First 91 games: −10.4
  3. Last 10 games: +27.4
  • L@NYK103–112−7.8
  • WNYK96–92+4.8
  • W@BOS123–116+14.0
  • W@BOS111–105+12.0
  • WBOS128–102+17.9
  • LBOS99–116−18.1
  • L@BOS97–110−7.6
  • LBOS103–104−4.2
  • W@BOS103–84+24.5
  • L@DEN93–104−8.1

DEN1650

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 88 games: +65.8
  3. Last 10 games: +67.2
  • WPHX97–87+7.8
  • L@PHX114–121−6.8
  • L@PHX124–129−5.4
  • WPHX118–102+11.0
  • W@PHX125–100+23.2
  • WLAL132–126+5.9
  • WLAL108–103+5.1
  • W@LAL119–108+13.1
  • W@LAL113–111+5.2
  • WMIA104–93+8.1
Season scoring marginMIA+0.4DEN+4.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA+0.4

Scores 109.7, allows 109.3 over 101 games: +0.4 a game.

DEN+4.2

Scores 115.8, allows 111.6 over 98 games: +4.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIA113.3DEN119.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

MIA113.3scored, −0.8 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.6%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.9%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.2%23.8%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.210−1.0
Everything else+0.9

DEN119.4scored, +5.4 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.6%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)9.3%11.9%+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%23.8%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210+0.2
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10MIA112.1DEN111.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

MIA112.1allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.6%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%11.9%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%23.8%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2500.210−1.1
Everything else+0.6

DEN111.9allowed, −2.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.6%+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)9.4%11.9%−3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.9%23.8%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210+0.3
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 94.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 93.2 and DEN 96.7 → average 94.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0DEN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-06-04 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-06-04 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIA3 daysDEN3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA3days

Last played Jun 1 against DEN.

DEN3days

Last played Jun 1 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jun 1@DEN93–10439-9613-392-2811100.0111.893.0
May 29@BOS103–8442-8614-285-6127110.891.392.5
May 27BOS103–10433-9314-3023-29517114.4115.690.0
May 25@BOS97–11040-789-238-101610111.5125.087.5
May 23BOS99–11634-788-3223-281512105.3122.194.5
May 21BOS128–10246-8119-3517-2191130.6103.098.5
May 19@BOS111–10542-929-2618-191011115.6109.496.0
May 17@BOS123–11646-8516-3115-19127126.8119.697.0
May 12NYK96–9233-827-2723-2577106.7104.589.0
May 10@NYK103–11237-8813-4316-191211110.8119.193.5

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jun 1MIA104–9340-798-2716-20106111.8100.093.0
May 22@LAL113–11141-8512-3319-22811127.0123.389.5
May 20@LAL119–10844-8817-4114-1955122.7111.397.0
May 18LAL108–10339-8914-3816-181511105.9101.0102.0
May 16LAL132–12650-9115-3217-221115134.7129.997.5
May 11@PHX125–10044-828-2229-31107127.6101.098.5
May 9PHX118–10242-8513-2721-281010118.0103.099.5
May 7@PHX124–12950-897-2217-23810130.5137.294.5
May 5@PHX114–12143-9710-3018-211216111.8118.6102.0
May 1PHX97–8736-767-2718-21105104.393.593.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
14 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −3 for DEN
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
338th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIADEN
Final score111108
Field goals38–78 · 48.7%39–75 · 52.0%
Three-pointers17–35 · 48.6%11–28 · 39.3%
Free throws18–20 · 90.0%19–22 · 86.4%
Rebounds3138
Assists2823
Turnovers1113
Steals57
Blocks42

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)+11−3−14
Total points211219+8
MIA points100111+11
DEN points111108−3

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Jun 1 at DEN L 93–104
May 29 at BOS W 103–84
May 27 vs BOS L 103–104
May 25 at BOS L 97–110
May 23 vs BOS L 99–116

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Jun 1 vs MIA W 104–93
May 22 at LAL W 113–111
May 20 at LAL W 119–108
May 18 vs LAL W 108–103
May 16 vs LAL W 132–126

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jun 1 2022-23 MIA at DEN MIA 93 – 104 DEN
Feb 13 2022-23 DEN at MIA DEN 112 – 108 MIA
Dec 30 2022-23 MIA at DEN MIA 119 – 124 DEN
Nov 29 2021-22 DEN at MIA DEN 120 – 111 MIA
Nov 8 2021-22 MIA at DEN MIA 96 – 113 DEN