The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

GSW 0–3@DEN 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: GSW 24 percent, DEN 76 percent. GSW Golden State Warriors 24% proj. 109 · final 134 DEN Nuggets · home 76% proj. 119 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
GSW Golden State Warriors 109 134 +25
DEN Denver Nuggets (home) 119 114 −5

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DEN

  • Home court+2.1 DENWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+5.4 DENElo DEN 1588, GSW 1420; season margin DEN +3.7, GSW −2.2.
  • Recent form+2.6 DENLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DEN scores 110.8 and allows 111.6; GSW scores 113.5 and allows 121.7.

Together: DEN by 10, a 76% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DEN is 1–1, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 116). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.8, getting to the line +1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.2, defensive rebounding −1.1.

GSW is 0–3, losing by 11 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 123). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.3. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.8, defensive rebounding −2.6.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DEN; left favors GSW.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +5.4, Recent form +2.6, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +10.4 for DEN. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +5.4 Recent form +2.6 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +10.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +10.4. The 76% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputGSWDENEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14201588 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +239 +4.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.2+3.7 +0.9
Games played this season 32 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.5110.8 −0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.7111.6 +1.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.1 +1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDEN ptsGSW ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court238.5+1.92−2.67+4.60
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)121.7+1.52+0.17+1.36
Combined pace, last 1099.1−0.24−1.28+1.04
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.68−0.15+0.82
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.31+0.50−0.81
Games played (away)3.0+0.23+0.88−0.65
Season scoring margin (home)3.7+0.20−0.23+0.43
Season scoring margin (away)-2.2+0.50+0.07+0.43
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.6−0.55−0.95+0.41
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.8−0.35−0.04−0.31
Elo rating (home)1588.2+0.02−0.24+0.26
Elo rating (away)1419.7+0.13−0.12+0.25
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.03+0.24
Games played (home)2.0+0.60+0.51+0.09
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.5+0.04−0.04+0.07
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.02+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1420DEN15885.1 pts toward DEN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1420

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 3 games: −21.9
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2

DEN1588

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. This season's 2 games: −2.9
  • L@OKC84–96−5.4
  • WNOP141–135+2.5
Season scoring marginGSW−2.2DEN+3.70.3 pts toward DEN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−2.2

Scores 111.7, allows 123.0 over 3 games: −11.3 a game.

15% this season (−11.3) + 85% last season (−0.6) = −2.2

DEN+3.7

Scores 112.5, allows 115.5 over 2 games: −3.0 a game.

10% this season (−3.0) + 90% last season (+4.5) = +3.7

Offensive rating, last 10GSW113.5DEN110.80.2 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.5%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%26.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2380.210+0.8
Everything else+1.9

DEN110.8scored, −3.7 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%26.1%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2560.210+1.3
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10GSW121.7DEN111.61.8 pts toward DEN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW121.7allowed, +7.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.0%54.5%−8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.2%+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.9%26.1%−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210+0.2
Everything else+0.8

DEN111.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.5%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1840.210+0.8
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 99.11.0 pts toward DEN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.3 and DEN 100.0 → average 99.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0DEN0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysDEN2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 24 against PHX.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 24 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0
Apr 2CLE111–11841-9412-4417-201212109.9116.8101.0
Apr 1SAS113–12742-8614-3515-18132111.9125.7101.0

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24NOP141–13548-9915-4730-391114119.5116.4106.0
Oct 22@OKC84–9631-828-3014-22221989.4102.194.0
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5
Apr 25@MIN96–11233-876-2824-281012101.1119.194.5
Apr 23@MIN96–11328-828-3232-4010695.0111.9101.0
Apr 20MIN114–11938-8615-4123-3095110.7116.7102.5
Apr 18MIN116–10538-8710-3630-33138113.7101.9102.5
Apr 12@SAS128–11850-10011-3017-221012126.7115.7101.5
Apr 10OKC127–10747-9321-4312-131610124.5103.9102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
30 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −20 for DEN
3rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
8th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statGSWDEN
Final score134114
Field goals46–85 · 54.1%42–84 · 50.0%
Three-pointers22–44 · 50.0%10–29 · 34.5%
Free throws20–21 · 95.2%20–23 · 87.0%
Rebounds4532
Assists3131
Turnovers1711
Steals513
Blocks26

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)+10−20−30
Total points228248+20
GSW points109134+25
DEN points119114−5

Recent form before this game

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at PHX L 122–131
Oct 23 vs MEM L 108–111
Oct 21 at LAL L 105–127
Apr 12 at LAC L 110–115
Apr 10 at SAC L 118–124

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs NOP W 141–135
Oct 22 at OKC L 84–96
Apr 30 at MIN L 98–110
Apr 27 vs MIN W 125–113
Apr 25 at MIN L 96–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 29 2025-26 GSW at DEN GSW 93 – 116 DEN
Feb 22 2025-26 DEN at GSW DEN 117 – 128 GSW
Nov 7 2025-26 GSW at DEN GSW 104 – 129 DEN
Oct 23 2025-26 DEN at GSW DEN 131 – 137 GSW
Apr 4 2024-25 DEN at GSW DEN 104 – 118 GSW