The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 17

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets

Monday, November 17, 2025 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

CHI 0–0@DEN 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 22 percent, DEN 78 percent. CHI Bulls 22% proj. 114 · final 130 DEN Nuggets · home 78% proj. 125 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 114 130 +16
DEN Denver Nuggets (home) 125 127 +2

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHIDEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15191668
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +219
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.9+8.9
Games played this season 1212
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.8122.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.2107.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.411.0
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1519DEN1668

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1519

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1537 → started this one at 1528
  2. First 2 games: +18.1
  3. Last 10 games: −27.7
  • WATL128–123+3.7
  • WSAC126–113+6.9
  • WNYK135–125+8.6
  • L@NYK116–128−8.7
  • WPHI113–111+1.7
  • L@MIL110–126−11.5
  • L@CLE122–128−4.1
  • LSAS117–121−9.2
  • L@DET113–124−7.4
  • L@UTA147–150−7.7

DEN1668

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 2 games: +0.9
  3. Last 10 games: +76.5
  • W@MIN127–114+17.7
  • WNOP122–88+4.5
  • L@POR107–109−5.0
  • WSAC130–124+3.3
  • WMIA122–112+5.0
  • WGSW129–104+12.1
  • WIND117–100+7.2
  • W@SAC122–108+8.4
  • W@LAC130–116+10.3
  • W@MIN123–112+13.0
Season scoring marginCHI−0.9DEN+8.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−0.9

Scores 121.0, allows 121.5 over 12 games: −0.5 a game.

60% this season (−0.5) + 40% last season (−1.6) = −0.9

DEN+8.9

Scores 124.4, allows 111.2 over 12 games: +13.2 a game.

60% this season (+13.2) + 40% last season (+2.6) = +8.9

Offensive rating, last 10CHI116.8DEN122.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

CHI116.8scored, +2.0 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%54.4%+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.6%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%26.3%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.230−0.4
Everything else−0.8

DEN122.1scored, +7.3 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.4%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.6%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.3%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2560.230+0.7
Everything else−1.2
Defensive rating, last 10CHI119.2DEN107.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

CHI119.2allowed, +4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.4%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%12.6%−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.4%26.3%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.230+0.7
Everything else−0.8

DEN107.9allowed, −6.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.4%+6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.6%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%26.3%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.230+0.2
Everything else+1.0
Pace, last 10average 101.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 102.8 and DEN 100.8 → average 101.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.3)

Rotation points missingCHI13.4DEN11.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI13.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tre Jones13.429.89

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-17 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DEN11.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Christian Braun11.028.49

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-17 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHI1 daysDEN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 16 against UTA.

DEN2days

Last played Nov 15 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 16@UTA147–15049-10819-5030-321712116.7120.0103.9
Nov 12@DET113–12441-8612-3319-282112106.6118.1105.5
Nov 10SAS117–12141-9316-3819-231211111.4116.3104.5
Nov 8@CLE122–12838-8413-2933-361310118.4125.5102.5
Nov 7@MIL110–12644-9010-3312-16148103.8118.9106.0
Nov 4PHI113–11142-8913-3416-201812110.8109.9101.5
Nov 2@NYK116–12845-9317-409-111412114.9126.7101.0
Oct 31NYK135–12545-8417-3728-3576136.4127.698.5
Oct 29SAC126–11349-9114-3214-181512126.0111.9100.5
Oct 27ATL128–12348-9216-4316-211412123.1117.1104.5

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 15@MIN123–11239-8314-2931-381210119.4109.8102.5
Nov 12@LAC130–11644-8413-3429-351111134.0118.497.5
Nov 11@SAC122–10844-8613-3321-271215125.8112.596.5
Nov 8IND117–10045-938-2719-231615114.795.2103.5
Nov 7GSW129–10446-8216-3321-2587134.4108.396.0
Nov 5MIA122–11243-10111-4025-281621115.1105.7106.0
Nov 3SAC130–12450-9712-3818-2478121.5115.9107.0
Oct 31@POR107–10938-796-2525-311610109.2110.198.5
Oct 29NOP122–8848-9014-4212-141413123.289.898.5
Oct 27@MIN127–11446-8813-2622-251210123.3112.9102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
22%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
14 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −3 for DEN
33rd
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
399th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHIDEN
Final score130127
Field goals48–102 · 47.1%46–97 · 47.4%
Three-pointers19–53 · 35.8%14–36 · 38.9%
Free throws15–19 · 78.9%21–25 · 84.0%
Rebounds5353
Assists3121
Turnovers98
Steals56
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)+11−3−14
Total points239257+18
CHI points114130+16
DEN points125127+2

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Nov 16 at UTA L 147–150
Nov 12 at DET L 113–124
Nov 10 vs SAS L 117–121
Nov 8 at CLE L 122–128
Nov 7 at MIL L 110–126

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 15 at MIN W 123–112
Nov 12 at LAC W 130–116
Nov 11 at SAC W 122–108
Nov 8 vs IND W 117–100
Nov 7 vs GSW W 129–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 24 2024-25 CHI at DEN CHI 129 – 119 DEN
Jan 27 2024-25 DEN at CHI DEN 121 – 129 CHI
Dec 12 2023-24 DEN at CHI DEN 114 – 106 CHI
Nov 4 2023-24 CHI at DEN CHI 101 – 123 DEN
Mar 8 2022-23 CHI at DEN CHI 117 – 96 DEN