2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets

Saturday, March 15, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 2–1@DEN 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	111	126	+15
DEN Denver Nuggets (home)	124	123	−1

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	DEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1280	1630
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+420
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.5	+4.5
Games played this season	66	67
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	107.9	118.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.3	120.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	12.5	6.5
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1280DEN1630

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1280

Ended last season at 1263 → started this one at 1322
First 56 games: −78.9
Last 10 games: +36.0

L@ORL90–110−5.0
WBKN107–99+11.6
LPOR121–129−5.0
W@CHA113–100+16.8
L@MIA90–106−4.0
WUTA125–122+6.1
W@TOR118–117+7.5
L@TOR104–119−5.8
L@DET103–123−2.6
W@DET129–125+16.4

DEN1630

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1612
First 57 games: +2.2
Last 10 games: +15.4

W@IND125–116+11.4
L@MIL112–121−11.4
W@DET134–119+15.2
L@BOS103–110−5.3
WSAC116–110+4.1
WPHX149–141+2.8
L@OKC103–127−7.3
W@OKC140–127+23.5
LMIN95–115−22.2
WLAL131–126+4.6

Season scoring marginWAS−11.5DEN+4.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−11.5

Scores 108.8, allows 120.3 over 66 games: −11.5 a game.

DEN+4.5

Scores 121.2, allows 116.7 over 67 games: +4.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS107.9DEN118.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

WAS107.9scored, −5.6 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.7%	54.3%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.1%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.4%	25.1%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.194	+0.7
Everything else			+1.6

DEN118.5scored, +5.0 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.5%	54.3%	+4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.1%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.9%	25.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.194	−0.2
Everything else			−1.9

Defensive rating, last 10WAS113.3DEN120.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

WAS113.3allowed, −0.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.9%	54.3%	+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.1%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.3%	25.1%	−3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.194	−0.3
Everything else			−0.1

DEN120.0allowed, +6.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.3%	−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.1%	−3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	25.1%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.194	−0.1
Everything else			−2.0

Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 101.5 and DEN 100.3 → average 100.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingWAS12.5DEN6.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS12.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Bilal Coulibaly	12.5	30.6	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-15 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DEN6.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Julian Strawther	6.5	18.7	4

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-15 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysDEN1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Mar 13 against DET.

DEN1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 14 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 13	@DET	129–125	43-90	20-45	23-27	15	8	118.3	115.7	108.5
Mar 11	@DET	103–123	37-92	13-39	16-20	13	9	100.0	119.4	103.0
Mar 10	@TOR	104–119	38-105	16-55	12-15	8	13	104.0	120.2	99.5
Mar 8	@TOR	118–117	44-100	13-38	17-23	15	15	116.8	114.7	101.5
Mar 5	UTA	125–122	42-95	17-47	24-29	9	10	119.0	117.3	104.5
Mar 3	@MIA	90–106	31-84	10-35	18-22	13	6	91.8	108.2	98.0
Mar 1	@CHA	113–100	40-88	17-50	16-17	15	11	113.0	100.0	100.0
Feb 26	POR	121–129	43-83	12-36	23-33	19	5	111.0	120.6	108.0
Feb 24	BKN	107–99	35-70	13-31	24-25	24	4	112.6	103.1	95.5
Feb 23	@ORL	90–110	32-78	10-38	16-22	20	3	92.8	113.4	97.0

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 14	LAL	131–126	44-85	13-31	30-38	12	9	127.2	124.8	102.0
Mar 12	MIN	95–115	36-89	7-30	16-22	10	12	99.0	121.1	95.5
Mar 10	@OKC	140–127	52-86	18-32	18-20	12	9	141.4	128.3	99.0
Mar 9	@OKC	103–127	40-97	12-40	11-20	7	14	104.0	128.3	99.0
Mar 7	PHX	149–141	57-97	21-40	14-18	9	8	136.7	129.4	98.7
Mar 5	SAC	116–110	40-87	12-35	24-30	13	11	116.0	112.2	99.0
Mar 2	@BOS	103–110	41-86	12-35	9-13	11	8	108.4	118.3	94.0
Feb 28	@DET	134–119	47-84	17-31	23-31	19	10	128.8	114.4	104.0
Feb 27	@MIL	112–121	47-105	9-34	9-11	13	14	103.7	113.1	107.5
Feb 24	@IND	125–116	53-94	8-21	11-14	19	14	120.2	110.5	104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored DEN

16 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −3 for DEN

8th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

293rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	DEN
Final score	126	123
Field goals	46–95 · 48.4%	48–95 · 50.5%
Three-pointers	19–45 · 42.2%	12–34 · 35.3%
Free throws	15–17 · 88.2%	15–17 · 88.2%
Rebounds	44	42
Assists	34	40
Turnovers	17	17
Steals	11	12
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)	+13	−3	−16
Total points	235	249	+14
WAS points	111	126	+15
DEN points	124	123	−1

Recent form before this game