The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 25

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

DEN 4–4@MIN 2–9 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 58 percent, MIN 42 percent. DEN Nuggets 58% proj. 119 · final 96 MIN Timberwolves · home 42% proj. 116 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 119 96 −23
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 116 112 −4

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
42%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
19 pts
margin miss
forecast −3, actual +16 for MIN
256th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
229th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.86 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENMIN
Final score96112
Field goals33–87 · 37.9%39–89 · 43.8%
Three-pointers6–28 · 21.4%9–25 · 36.0%
Free throws24–28 · 85.7%25–26 · 96.2%
Rebounds3850
Assists2122
Turnovers1012
Steals76
Blocks75

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)−3+16+19
Total points235208−27
DEN points11996−23
MIN points116112−4

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-25 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Denver Nuggets

  • Out Peyton Watson
  • Questionable Aaron Gordon · Left Calf;Tightness

Minnesota Timberwolves

No players listed.

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 23 at MIN L 96–113
Apr 20 vs MIN L 114–119
Apr 18 vs MIN W 116–105
Apr 12 at SAS W 128–118
Apr 10 vs OKC W 127–107

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Apr 23 vs DEN W 113–96
Apr 20 at DEN W 119–114
Apr 18 at DEN L 105–116
Apr 12 vs NOP W 132–126
Apr 10 at HOU W 136–132

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 23 2025-26 DEN at MIN DEN 96 – 113 MIN
Apr 20 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 119 – 114 DEN
Apr 18 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 105 – 116 DEN
Mar 1 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 117 – 108 DEN
Dec 25 2025-26 MIN at DEN MIN 138 – 142 DEN