The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers

Monday, October 24, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 0–0@POR 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 70 percent, POR 30 percent. DEN Nuggets 70% proj. 115 · final 110 POR Trail Blazers · home 30% proj. 107 · final 135
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 115 110 −5
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 107 135 +28

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDENPOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15211342
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −109
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.9−7.0
Games played this season 33
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.099.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.3115.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1521POR1342

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1521

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. This season's 3 games: +4.3
  • L@UTA102–123−11.7
  • W@GSW128–123+13.3
  • WOKC122–117+2.7

POR1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
  2. This season's 3 games: +30.5
  • W@SAC115–108+14.2
  • WPHX113–111+8.4
  • W@LAL106–104+7.9
Season scoring marginDEN+0.9POR−7.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+0.9

Scores 117.3, allows 121.0 over 3 games: −3.7 a game.

15% this season (−3.7) + 85% last season (+1.7) = +0.9

POR−7.0

Scores 111.3, allows 107.7 over 3 games: +3.7 a game.

15% this season (+3.7) + 85% last season (−8.9) = −7.0

Offensive rating, last 10DEN115.0POR99.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

DEN115.0scored, +3.6 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%53.3%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%11.8%−4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%23.0%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2460.196+1.4
Everything else+0.0

POR99.9scored, −11.4 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.0%53.3%−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)14.9%11.8%−4.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.7%23.0%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.196−0.1
Everything else−0.8
Defensive rating, last 10DEN119.3POR115.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

DEN119.3allowed, +7.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.3%53.3%−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.8%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%23.0%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2500.196−1.6
Everything else+0.1

POR115.4allowed, +4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%53.3%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%11.8%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.9%23.0%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.196−1.5
Everything else+1.2
Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 100.1 and POR 98.2 → average 99.2 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0POR0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-24 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysPOR1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 22 against OKC.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 22OKC122–11742-8520-3818-31189118.4112.5103.5
Oct 21@GSW128–12346-8615-3421-252012120.8113.9107.0
Oct 19@UTA102–12340-835-2217-182110100.0119.4102.5
Apr 27@GSW98–10236-816-2920-291414104.3107.494.5
Apr 24GSW126–12141-7315-3129-36205123.5119.8101.5
Apr 21GSW113–11840-8011-2622-271711114.1119.299.0
Apr 18@GSW106–12637-8713-3619-211617112.8132.694.5
Apr 16@GSW107–12343-9311-3510-13109113.8130.994.0
Apr 10LAL141–14649-10015-4728-361411122.6129.2103.2
Apr 7MEM122–10944-8012-3022-25178119.6107.9101.5

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@LAL106–10437-8410-2722-271913103.9103.0101.5
Oct 21PHX113–11136-8210-2931-361813103.7102.898.3
Oct 19@SAC115–10839-8811-2826-331111113.9106.9101.0
Apr 10UTA80–11131-839-349-1214581.6112.198.5
Apr 8@DAL78–12831-837-329-1216581.3128.098.0
Apr 7@NOP94–12736-6911-3111-13223101.1135.193.5
Apr 5@OKC94–9835-8311-3213-16171096.9101.097.0
Apr 3@SAS92–11333-8416-4510-1514796.8115.396.5
Apr 1@SAS111–13041-9215-3514-201012112.1131.399.0
Mar 30NOP107–11739-8514-4215-182013108.1118.299.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
30%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
33 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +25 for POR
69th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
19th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENPOR
Final score110135
Field goals45–91 · 49.5%48–83 · 57.8%
Three-pointers12–31 · 38.7%16–35 · 45.7%
Free throws8–14 · 57.1%23–31 · 74.2%
Rebounds3845
Assists2823
Turnovers88
Steals43
Blocks16

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)−8+25+33
Total points222245+23
DEN points115110−5
POR points107135+28

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 22 vs OKC W 122–117
Oct 21 at GSW W 128–123
Oct 19 at UTA L 102–123
Apr 27 at GSW L 98–102
Apr 24 vs GSW W 126–121

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at LAL W 106–104
Oct 21 vs PHX W 113–111
Oct 19 at SAC W 115–108
Apr 10 vs UTA L 80–111
Apr 8 at DAL L 78–128

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 27 2021-22 DEN at POR DEN 124 – 92 POR
Jan 13 2021-22 POR at DEN POR 108 – 140 DEN
Nov 23 2021-22 DEN at POR DEN 100 – 119 POR
Nov 14 2021-22 POR at DEN POR 95 – 124 DEN