The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

DEN 1–2@NOP 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 59 percent, NOP 41 percent. DEN Nuggets 59% proj. 121 · final 104 NOP Pelicans · home 41% proj. 118 · final 91
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 121 104 −17
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 118 91 −27

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DEN

  • Home court+2.1 NOPWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+5.5 DENElo NOP 1409, DEN 1556; season margin NOP −4.3, DEN +2.5.
  • Rest and schedule+0.3 NOPNOP 4 days of rest, DEN 2.

Together: DEN by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DEN is 1–2, losing by 9 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 122). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.9, getting to the line +1.6. Their defense lets opponents rebound 29% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.4.

NOP is 0–3, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 125, allowing 128). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Yves Missi (10 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NOP; left favors DEN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −5.5, Rest and schedule +0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Recent form +0.1, Player availability −0.1, giving −2.8 for NOP. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −5.5 Rest and schedule +0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Recent form +0.1 Player availability −0.1 Projected margin −2.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −2.8. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDENNOPEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15561409 −0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −77 −4.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.5−4.3 −0.9
Games played this season 33 +0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2113.3 +0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.1120.4 −1.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.2 +1.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.09.5 −0.1
Rest days 24 +0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNOP ptsDEN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-77.1−1.47+3.20−4.67
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)120.4+0.32+2.20−1.89
Combined pace, last 10102.2+3.91+2.55+1.36
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.2−0.10−0.75+0.65
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.17+0.47−0.64
Rotation points missing (home)9.5+0.61+0.06+0.55
Season scoring margin (home)-4.3−0.24+0.27−0.52
Season scoring margin (away)2.5−0.27+0.14−0.41
Games played (home)3.0+0.49+0.08+0.40
Elo rating (home)1408.9−0.10+0.29−0.40
Rest days (home)4.0+0.29−0.02+0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3−0.32−0.08−0.23
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.1+0.24+0.03+0.21
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.06+0.20
Elo rating (away)1555.9+0.14+0.03+0.11
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Games played (away)3.0+0.27+0.25+0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1556NOP14095.0 pts toward DEN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1556

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. This season's 3 games: −35.2
  • L@OKC84–96−5.4
  • WNOP141–135+2.5
  • LGSW114–134−32.3

NOP1409

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 3 games: −15.1
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
Season scoring marginDEN+2.5NOP−4.30.5 pts toward DEN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+2.5

Scores 113.0, allows 121.7 over 3 games: −8.7 a game.

15% this season (−8.7) + 85% last season (+4.5) = +2.5

NOP−4.3

Scores 124.7, allows 128.0 over 3 games: −3.3 a game.

15% this season (−3.3) + 85% last season (−4.5) = −4.3

Offensive rating, last 10DEN110.2NOP113.30.4 pts toward NOP

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DEN110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2670.210+1.6
Everything else+0.1

NOP113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.210+1.5
Everything else+1.4
Defensive rating, last 10DEN115.1NOP120.41.7 pts toward DEN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DEN115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.3%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1990.210+0.3
Everything else−0.1

NOP120.4allowed, +5.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+0.9
Pace, last 10average 102.21.4 pts toward NOP

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 99.4 and NOP 105.0 → average 102.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0NOP9.50.1 pts toward DEN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

NOP9.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Yves Missi9.519.62

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysNOP4 days0.3 pts toward NOP

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 26 against GSW.

NOP4days

Last played Oct 24 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26GSW114–13442-8410-2920-231110117.5139.696.5
Oct 24NOP141–13548-9915-4730-391114119.5116.4106.0
Oct 22@OKC84–9631-828-3014-22221989.4102.194.0
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5
Apr 25@MIN96–11233-876-2824-281012101.1119.194.5
Apr 23@MIN96–11328-828-3232-4010695.0111.9101.0
Apr 20MIN114–11938-8615-4123-3095110.7116.7102.5
Apr 18MIN116–10538-8710-3630-33138113.7101.9102.5
Apr 12@SAS128–11850-10011-3017-221012126.7115.7101.5

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5
Apr 2@POR106–11838-849-2321-261912107.1116.8100.0
Mar 29HOU102–13437-869-2919-28108102.0135.499.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner
DEN was the forecast favorite
10 pts
margin miss
forecast −3, actual −13 for NOP
74th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
63rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENNOP
Final score10491
Field goals37–80 · 46.3%34–82 · 41.5%
Three-pointers12–31 · 38.7%7–30 · 23.3%
Free throws18–19 · 94.7%16–22 · 72.7%
Rebounds4241
Assists3020
Turnovers1719
Steals1114
Blocks53

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−3−13−10
Total points239195−44
DEN points121104−17
NOP points11891−27

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs GSW L 114–134
Oct 24 vs NOP W 141–135
Oct 22 at OKC L 84–96
Apr 30 at MIN L 98–110
Apr 27 vs MIN W 125–113

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at DEN L 135–141
Oct 23 at UTA L 119–120
Oct 21 vs IND L 120–123
Apr 12 at MIN L 126–132
Apr 10 at BOS L 118–144

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 24 2026-27 NOP at DEN NOP 135 – 141 DEN
Jan 13 2025-26 DEN at NOP DEN 122 – 116 NOP
Nov 19 2025-26 DEN at NOP DEN 125 – 118 NOP
Oct 29 2025-26 NOP at DEN NOP 88 – 122 DEN
Feb 5 2024-25 NOP at DEN NOP 119 – 144 DEN