The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

MIN 1–0@ORL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 41 percent, ORL 59 percent. MIN Timberwolves 41% proj. 112 · final 115 ORL Magic · home 59% proj. 115 · final 93
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 112 115 +3
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 115 93 −22

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ORL

  • Home court+2.1 ORLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.7 MINElo ORL 1527, MIN 1574; season margin ORL +0.1, MIN +3.3.
  • Recent form+2.3 ORLLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ORL scores 104.9 and allows 107.6; MIN scores 108.7 and allows 113.5.

Together: ORL by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ORL is 0–1, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 125, allowing 132). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +4, free throws allowed −1.5.

MIN is 1–0, winning by 25 a game on average (scoring 131, allowing 106). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.3. Their defense lets opponents rebound 23% of their misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ORL; left favors MIN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −2.7, Recent form +2.3, Player availability +0.2, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +2.2 for ORL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −2.7 Recent form +2.3 Player availability +0.2 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +2.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.2. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMINORLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15741527 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +22 −1.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.3+0.1 −0.4
Games played this season 11 −1.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.7104.9 −0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.5107.6 +2.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.1 +0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.2
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueORL ptsMIN ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)107.6−0.43−2.69+2.25
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)104.9−2.01−0.23−1.78
Elo gap incl. home court22.2−0.94+0.39−1.33
Games played (away)1.0+0.20+1.27−1.07
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.89−0.16+1.04
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.7−0.08−1.09+1.01
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.29+0.53−0.82
Combined pace, last 10100.0+1.47+0.97+0.50
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.5+0.28−0.06+0.34
Season scoring margin (home)0.1−0.21+0.12−0.33
Elo rating (home)1526.6+0.03−0.24+0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.31+0.07+0.23
Games played (home)1.0+0.60+0.81−0.21
Season scoring margin (away)3.3+0.08+0.18−0.10
Elo rating (away)1574.5+0.07−0.01+0.08
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.06−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0±0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Rest days (home)2.0+0.04+0.04−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1574ORL15271.0 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1574

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 1 game: +21.7
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7

ORL1527

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 1 game: −11.1
  • LATL125–132−11.1
Season scoring marginMIN+3.3ORL+0.11.7 pts toward MIN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+3.3

Scores 131.0, allows 106.0 over 1 game: +25.0 a game.

5% this season (+25.0) + 95% last season (+2.2) = +3.3

ORL+0.1

Scores 125.0, allows 132.0 over 1 game: −7.0 a game.

5% this season (−7.0) + 95% last season (+0.5) = +0.1

Offensive rating, last 10MIN108.7ORL104.90.8 pts toward MIN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN108.7scored, −5.9 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.3%54.5%−7.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.210−0.2
Everything else+0.2

ORL104.9scored, −9.7 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.6%54.5%−9.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%26.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.210+1.1
Everything else−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10MIN113.5ORL107.62.6 pts toward ORL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN113.5allowed, −1.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.5%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2530.210−1.2
Everything else+1.1

ORL107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.7%12.2%+3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2630.210−1.5
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 100.10.5 pts toward ORL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 101.0 and ORL 99.2 → average 100.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0ORL0.00.2 pts toward ORL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysORL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 21 against MIA.

ORL2days

Last played Oct 21 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0
Apr 30DEN110–9843-947-2917-24719118.3105.493.0
Apr 27@DEN113–12541-8112-2819-23259109.7122.5102.5
Apr 25DEN112–9639-899-2525-261216119.1101.194.5

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5
Apr 25DET113–10536-8915-3326-331414117.7109.496.0
Apr 22@DET83–9826-808-3223-32171383.899.099.0
Apr 19@DET112–10144-9010-3414-191211113.1103.198.5
Apr 12@BOS108–11336-9112-4324-301914102.9107.6105.0
Apr 10@CHI127–10349-9413-3716-241412118.795.4107.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
the forecast favored ORL
25 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −22 for ORL
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
16th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINORL
Final score11593
Field goals42–98 · 42.9%37–84 · 44.0%
Three-pointers14–37 · 37.8%8–39 · 20.5%
Free throws17–30 · 56.7%11–19 · 57.9%
Rebounds6143
Assists3323
Turnovers1216
Steals87
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)+3−22−25
Total points227208−19
MIN points112115+3
ORL points11593−22

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at MIA W 131–106
May 15 vs SAS L 109–139
May 12 at SAS L 97–126
May 10 vs SAS W 114–109
May 8 vs SAS L 108–115

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs ATL L 125–132
May 3 at DET L 94–116
May 1 vs DET L 79–93
Apr 29 at DET L 109–116
Apr 27 vs DET W 94–88

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 8 2025-26 MIN at ORL MIN 120 – 132 ORL
Mar 7 2025-26 ORL at MIN ORL 119 – 92 MIN
Mar 14 2024-25 ORL at MIN ORL 111 – 118 MIN
Jan 9 2024-25 MIN at ORL MIN 104 – 89 ORL
Feb 2 2023-24 ORL at MIN ORL 108 – 106 MIN