The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIN 4–2@SAS 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 31 percent, SAS 69 percent. MIN Timberwolves 31% proj. 110 · final 111 SAS Spurs · home 69% proj. 117 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 110 111 +1
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 117 121 +4

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

  • Home court+2.1 SASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+2.1 SASMIN without Anthony Edwards (33 ppg).
  • Team strength+1.7 SASElo SAS 1687, MIN 1598; season margin SAS +7.8, MIN +6.0.
  • Recent form+1.1 SASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: SAS scores 112.9 and allows 109.8; MIN scores 112.2 and allows 109.0.

Together: SAS by 7, a 69% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 3–2, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 110). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.6. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.2.

MIN is 4–2, winning by 15 a game on average (scoring 122, allowing 107). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.2. Anthony Edwards (33 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAS; left favors MIN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability +2.1, Team strength +1.7, Recent form +1.1, Rest and schedule +0.2, No playoff context +0.2, giving +7.3 for SAS. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability +2.1 Team strength +1.7 Recent form +1.1 Rest and schedule +0.2 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin +7.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +7.3. The 69% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMINSASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15981687 +0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +159 +2.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.0+7.8 −0.3
Games played this season 65 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.2112.9 −0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.0109.8 +0.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0 +1.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 33.30.0 +2.1
Rest days 13 +0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAS ptsMIN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court158.5+1.10−0.98+2.08
Combined pace, last 10100.0+1.98+0.90+1.08
Rotation points missing (away)33.3+0.03−1.05+1.08
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.83−0.16+0.99
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)109.8−0.40−1.37+0.97
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.0−0.89−0.08−0.81
Season scoring margin (away)6.0−0.52+0.23−0.74
Elo rating (home)1686.6+0.50−0.13+0.63
Games played (away)6.0+0.28+0.84−0.55
Season scoring margin (home)7.8+0.11−0.33+0.44
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.9−0.45−0.15−0.29
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)112.2−0.02−0.19+0.17
Elo rating (away)1598.1−0.14−0.00−0.14
Home series wins0.0+0.18+0.04+0.14
Rest days (home)3.0+0.11−0.03+0.13
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Games played (home)5.0+0.08+0.13−0.04
Rest days (away)1.0+0.05+0.01+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.03+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1598SAS16872.6 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1598

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 6 games: +45.4
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6
  • L@CLE125–127−4.3
  • LGSW114–119−13.3
  • WLAC127–101+10.7

SAS1687

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
  2. This season's 5 games: −16.7
  • LOKC104–116−15.8
  • LHOU110–114−11.1
  • W@DAL122–106+5.7
  • WSAC130–103+2.6
  • W@UTA117–111+1.9
Season scoring marginMIN+6.0SAS+7.80.9 pts toward MIN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+6.0

Scores 121.5, allows 106.7 over 6 games: +14.8 a game.

30% this season (+14.8) + 70% last season (+2.2) = +6.0

SAS+7.8

Scores 116.6, allows 110.0 over 5 games: +6.6 a game.

25% this season (+6.6) + 75% last season (+8.2) = +7.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIN112.2SAS112.90.1 pts toward MIN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN112.2scored, −2.4 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.210−0.8
Everything else−0.1

SAS112.9scored, −1.7 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.2%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210−0.3
Everything else+1.3
Defensive rating, last 10MIN109.0SAS109.80.2 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MIN109.0allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.5%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.210−0.6
Everything else+1.2

SAS109.8allowed, −4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.5%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.210+0.6
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.01.1 pts toward SAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 102.2 and SAS 97.7 → average 100.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIN33.3SAS0.02.1 pts toward SAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anthony Edwards33.233.74

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIN1 daysSAS3 days0.2 pts toward SAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 30 against LAC.

SAS3days

Last played Oct 28 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30LAC127–10151-9518-427-111112127.0102.099.5
Oct 28GSW114–11940-9015-4519-27157105.6110.2108.0
Oct 26@CLE125–12749-10213-4014-231717112.6112.4101.4
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@UTA117–11144-10112-3817-211115108.3102.897.8
Oct 27SAC130–10349-9017-3715-19139130.0103.0100.0
Oct 24@DAL122–10648-10115-4211-161215118.4103.9102.5
Oct 23HOU110–11440-8712-3718-25159112.2117.597.5
Oct 20OKC104–11636-9310-3722-251310102.0113.7102.0
Jun 10@NYK106–10736-8617-4317-201112112.8115.193.5
Jun 8@NYK115–11139-8412-3425-3286123.7119.493.0
Jun 5NYK104–10537-7811-2919-27165105.1108.298.0
Jun 3NYK95–10532-8911-4320-25131496.0105.099.5
May 30@OKC111–10340-8817-4014-191215120.7109.693.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
69%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
SAS was the forecast favorite
3 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual +10 for SAS
100th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
116th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINSAS
Final score111121
Field goals40–93 · 43.0%43–87 · 49.4%
Three-pointers9–33 · 27.3%10–27 · 37.0%
Free throws22–26 · 84.6%25–31 · 80.6%
Rebounds3849
Assists2324
Turnovers1415
Steals116
Blocks29

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)+7+10+3
Total points227232+5
MIN points110111+1
SAS points117121+4

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs LAC W 127–101
Oct 28 vs GSW L 114–119
Oct 26 at CLE L 125–127
Oct 25 vs TOR W 117–94
Oct 23 at ORL W 115–93

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at UTA W 117–111
Oct 27 vs SAC W 130–103
Oct 24 at DAL W 122–106
Oct 23 vs HOU L 110–114
Oct 20 vs OKC L 104–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 15 2025-26 SAS at MIN SAS 139 – 109 MIN
May 12 2025-26 MIN at SAS MIN 97 – 126 SAS
May 10 2025-26 SAS at MIN SAS 109 – 114 MIN
May 8 2025-26 SAS at MIN SAS 115 – 108 MIN
May 6 2025-26 MIN at SAS MIN 95 – 133 SAS