2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs

Monday, May 4, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

MIN 2–9@SAS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	105	104	−1
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	117	102	−15

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1590	1748
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+228
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.4	+8.4
Games played this season	88	88
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.4	119.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.1	109.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	32.0	0.0
Rest days	4	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1590SAS1748

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1590

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 78 games: −106.1
Last 10 games: +53.6

W@IND124–104+9.2
L@ORL120–132−9.8
W@HOU136–132+10.1
WNOP132–126+3.0
L@DEN105–116−4.9
W@DEN119–114+12.5
WDEN113–96+16.2
WDEN112–96+13.9
L@DEN113–125−7.5
WDEN110–98+10.9

SAS1748

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 78 games: +316.1
Last 10 games: −5.9

L@DEN134–136−6.2
WPHI115–102+2.8
WPOR112–101+2.5
WDAL139–120+1.3
LDEN118–128−17.9
WPOR111–98+3.3
LPOR103–106−12.2
W@POR120–108+7.0
W@POR114–93+9.6
WPOR114–95+3.9

Season scoring marginMIN+3.4SAS+8.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+3.4

Scores 117.6, allows 114.2 over 88 games: +3.4 a game.

SAS+8.4

Scores 119.3, allows 110.9 over 88 games: +8.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN117.4SAS119.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

MIN117.4scored, +2.7 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.6%	+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.1%	26.0%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.209	+0.1
Everything else			−0.8

SAS119.0scored, +4.4 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.6%	+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.6%	26.0%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.209	+0.1
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10MIN113.1SAS109.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

MIN113.1allowed, −1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.6%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.7%	26.0%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.286	0.209	−2.2
Everything else			−0.9

SAS109.2allowed, −5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.7%	54.6%	+7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.2%	−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.4%	26.0%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.209	+0.9
Everything else			+0.2

Pace, last 10average 99.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 100.8 and SAS 98.2 → average 99.5 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.1)

Rotation points missingMIN32.0SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN32.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ayo Dosunmu	21.1	31.7	7
Donte DiVincenzo	10.9	23.1	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-04 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-04 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIN4 daysSAS5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN4days

Last played Apr 30 against DEN.

SAS5days

Last played Apr 28 against POR (6 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 30	DEN	110–98	43-94	7-29	17-24	7	19	118.3	105.4	93.0
Apr 27	@DEN	113–125	41-81	12-28	19-23	25	9	109.7	122.5	102.5
Apr 25	DEN	112–96	39-89	9-25	25-26	12	16	119.1	101.1	94.5
Apr 23	DEN	113–96	44-93	9-34	16-21	10	12	111.9	95.0	101.0
Apr 20	@DEN	119–114	43-90	14-34	19-30	12	9	116.7	110.7	102.5
Apr 18	@DEN	105–116	40-87	11-34	14-19	13	7	101.9	113.7	102.5
Apr 12	NOP	132–126	45-89	10-37	32-43	11	11	122.2	117.8	107.5
Apr 10	@HOU	136–132	51-89	15-30	19-25	7	7	136.0	133.3	99.5
Apr 8	@ORL	120–132	45-90	18-44	12-14	16	9	118.8	130.7	101.0
Apr 7	@IND	124–104	46-89	17-41	15-16	18	10	119.2	101.0	103.5

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 28	POR	114–95	41-75	12-30	20-29	14	7	121.3	99.0	95.0
Apr 26	@POR	114–93	43-87	14-33	14-17	12	9	116.3	93.0	99.0
Apr 24	@POR	120–108	41-87	16-33	22-28	13	14	122.4	109.1	98.5
Apr 21	POR	103–106	38-86	7-24	20-28	16	12	106.2	108.2	97.5
Apr 19	POR	111–98	40-84	15-33	16-19	13	11	116.8	102.1	95.5
Apr 12	DEN	118–128	45-99	15-47	13-18	9	14	115.7	126.7	101.5
Apr 10	DAL	139–120	50-92	13-32	26-27	10	13	139.0	121.2	99.5
Apr 8	POR	112–101	43-88	11-29	15-19	15	11	110.9	100.0	101.0
Apr 6	PHI	115–102	44-89	11-32	16-22	9	9	118.6	105.2	97.0
Apr 4	@DEN	134–136	47-101	15-45	25-27	10	12	122.9	127.1	97.8

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

20%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored SAS

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −2 for SAS

22nd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.60 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	SAS
Final score	104	102
Field goals	41–90 · 45.6%	39–87 · 44.8%
Three-pointers	10–26 · 38.5%	10–36 · 27.8%
Free throws	12–21 · 57.1%	14–18 · 77.8%
Rebounds	46	47
Assists	20	24
Turnovers	10	13
Steals	7	4
Blocks	5	14

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	+12	−2	−14
Total points	222	206	−16
MIN points	105	104	−1
SAS points	117	102	−15

Recent form before this game