2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings

Monday, November 24, 2025 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MIN 0–0@SAC 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	125	112	−13
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	114	117	+3

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1620	1415
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−135
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.8	−10.4
Games played this season	16	17
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	119.7	106.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.5	123.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	20.4
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1620SAC1415

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1620

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 6 games: −27.3
Last 10 games: +5.2

W@BKN125–109+4.4
L@NYK114–137−16.1
WUTA137–97+5.8
W@SAC144–117+16.0
W@UTA120–113+3.3
WSAC124–110+3.7
LDEN112–123−13.0
WDAL120–96+4.6
WWAS120–109+1.0
L@PHX113–114−4.5

SAC1415

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 7 games: −17.2
Last 10 games: −66.3

WGSW121–116+7.8
LOKC101–132−11.1
LMIN117–144−16.0
LDEN108–122−8.4
LATL100–133−24.6
L@MIN110–124−3.7
L@SAS110–123−6.8
L@OKC99–113−1.7
L@MEM96–137−18.7
W@DEN128–123+16.9

Season scoring marginMIN+5.8SAC−10.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+5.8

Scores 120.1, allows 114.1 over 16 games: +6.1 a game.

80% this season (+6.1) + 20% last season (+4.6) = +5.8

SAC−10.4

Scores 112.0, allows 124.4 over 17 games: −12.3 a game.

85% this season (−12.3) + 15% last season (+0.5) = −10.4

Offensive rating, last 10MIN119.7SAC106.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIN119.7scored, +4.9 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.2%	54.5%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.6%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	26.3%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.247	0.228	+0.6
Everything else			−0.5

SAC106.5scored, −8.3 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.5%	−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.6%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.8%	26.3%	−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.228	−0.9
Everything else			−1.2

Defensive rating, last 10MIN110.5SAC123.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIN110.5allowed, −4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.5%	+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	12.6%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.1%	26.3%	−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.217	0.228	+0.3
Everything else			−0.3

SAC123.0allowed, +8.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.1%	54.5%	−6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.6%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	26.3%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.228	+0.0
Everything else			−0.9

Pace, last 10average 102.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 102.5 and SAC 102.8 → average 102.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.2)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0SAC20.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAC20.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Domantas Sabonis	20.4	31.5	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-24 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestMIN3 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN3days

Last played Nov 21 against PHX.

SAC2days

Last played Nov 22 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 21	@PHX	113–114	39-86	12-37	23-33	19	14	108.7	110.7	103.5
Nov 19	WAS	120–109	42-94	13-38	23-32	9	19	122.4	112.4	97.5
Nov 17	DAL	120–96	44-97	14-44	18-25	16	14	110.1	88.9	108.5
Nov 15	DEN	112–123	41-88	10-34	20-23	13	8	109.8	119.4	102.5
Nov 14	SAC	124–110	42-86	12-37	28-40	17	13	119.2	104.8	104.5
Nov 10	@UTA	120–113	42-89	10-33	26-28	10	7	116.5	111.9	102.0
Nov 9	@SAC	144–117	52-97	18-46	22-24	10	9	135.8	110.4	106.0
Nov 7	UTA	137–97	50-88	17-36	20-27	21	13	128.0	91.5	106.5
Nov 5	@NYK	114–137	40-83	19-40	15-17	17	9	118.8	141.2	96.5
Nov 3	@BKN	125–109	44-78	14-35	23-35	16	14	127.6	113.5	97.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 22	@DEN	128–123	48-91	10-30	22-23	6	9	133.3	126.8	96.5
Nov 20	@MEM	96–137	37-80	11-33	11-15	16	4	96.0	137.0	100.0
Nov 19	@OKC	99–113	38-86	8-28	15-23	18	12	96.1	108.7	103.5
Nov 16	@SAS	110–123	41-87	12-33	16-22	12	5	108.9	119.4	102.0
Nov 14	@MIN	110–124	41-93	12-33	16-27	15	13	104.8	119.2	104.5
Nov 12	ATL	100–133	36-92	14-39	14-18	18	9	92.6	122.0	108.5
Nov 11	DEN	108–122	41-85	10-33	16-23	10	9	112.5	125.8	96.5
Nov 9	MIN	117–144	40-90	13-29	24-31	16	12	110.4	135.8	106.0
Nov 7	OKC	101–132	38-92	15-40	10-15	15	8	97.1	125.7	104.5
Nov 5	GSW	121–116	41-83	11-23	28-33	16	8	113.1	109.4	106.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

16 pts

margin miss

forecast −11, actual +5 for SAC

41st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

324th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	SAC
Final score	112	117
Field goals	40–97 · 41.2%	42–97 · 43.3%
Three-pointers	13–42 · 31.0%	7–26 · 26.9%
Free throws	19–22 · 86.4%	26–28 · 92.9%
Rebounds	55	49
Assists	21	27
Turnovers	16	12
Steals	9	9
Blocks	4	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	−11	+5	+16
Total points	239	229	−10
MIN points	125	112	−13
SAC points	114	117	+3

Recent form before this game