2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves

Friday, February 6, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

NOP 3–0@MIN 1–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	112	119	+7
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	122	115	−7

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	NOP	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1358	1604
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+316
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−6.5	+4.9
Games played this season	53	52
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.5	115.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.9	113.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1358MIN1604

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1358

Ended last season at 1302 → started this one at 1352
First 43 games: −17.8
Last 10 games: +24.2

L@IND119–127−5.8
L@HOU110–119−2.0
LDET104–112−3.1
W@MEM133–127+14.6
W@SAS104–95+23.2
L@OKC95–104−1.2
WMEM114–106+9.4
L@PHI114–124−4.8
L@CHA95–102−2.3
L@MIL137–141−3.8

MIN1604

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 42 games: −17.7
Last 10 games: −20.7

L@SAS123–126−4.9
L@UTA122–127−12.7
LCHI115–120−13.3
LGSW85–111−28.6
WGSW108–83+15.4
W@DAL118–105+9.8
WOKC123–111+14.1
W@MEM131–114+9.6
L@MEM128–137−14.5
W@TOR128–126+4.4

Season scoring marginNOP−6.5MIN+4.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−6.5

Scores 114.5, allows 121.0 over 53 games: −6.5 a game.

MIN+4.9

Scores 119.6, allows 114.8 over 52 games: +4.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP112.5MIN115.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

NOP112.5scored, −2.1 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.4%	−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.4%	12.2%	+4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			−0.9

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIN115.2scored, +0.6 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.4%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+0.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10NOP115.9MIN113.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

NOP115.9allowed, +1.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	54.4%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			−2.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIN113.3allowed, −1.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.4%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			+1.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 98.8 and MIN 102.7 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingNOP0.0MIN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-02-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-02-06 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Feb 4 against MIL.

MIN2days

Last played Feb 4 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 4	@MIL	137–141	45-94	24-46	23-29	8	–	130.5	133.0	95.5
Feb 2	@CHA	95–102	33-84	11-34	18-25	7	–	99.0	105.2	96.5
Jan 31	@PHI	114–124	40-92	15-36	19-22	10	–	114.0	121.6	101.0
Jan 30	MEM	114–106	43-88	8-33	20-26	15	–	112.9	107.1	100.0
Jan 27	@OKC	95–104	34-99	10-40	17-22	8	–	97.9	109.5	96.0
Jan 25	@SAS	104–95	41-102	9-34	13-17	10	–	108.3	100.0	95.5
Jan 23	@MEM	133–127	46-99	13-36	28-33	10	–	126.7	121.0	105.0
Jan 21	DET	104–112	36-86	7-32	25-30	17	–	102.0	108.7	102.5
Jan 18	@HOU	110–119	44-88	10-26	12-15	13	–	111.1	120.2	99.0
Jan 16	@IND	119–127	41-82	13-31	24-30	8	–	122.7	132.3	96.5

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 4	@TOR	128–126	49-97	16-39	14-25	10	–	123.1	122.3	103.5
Feb 2	@MEM	128–137	44-90	16-41	24-31	9	–	129.3	138.4	99.0
Jan 31	@MEM	131–114	47-89	18-37	19-24	14	–	129.7	111.8	101.5
Jan 29	OKC	123–111	45-89	22-47	11-18	19	–	124.2	113.3	98.5
Jan 28	@DAL	118–105	43-94	12-34	20-27	12	–	112.4	100.0	105.0
Jan 26	GSW	108–83	37-81	14-35	20-26	22	–	100.9	77.6	107.0
Jan 25	GSW	85–111	30-79	13-38	12-20	25	–	82.5	106.7	103.5
Jan 22	CHI	115–120	43-93	15-41	14-15	14	–	110.6	114.3	104.5
Jan 20	@UTA	122–127	44-100	14-47	20-27	11	–	116.2	121.0	105.0
Jan 17	@SAS	123–126	42-90	14-34	25-28	11	–	123.0	127.3	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −4 for MIN

45th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.42 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	MIN
Final score	119	115
Field goals	43–80 · 53.8%	40–95 · 42.1%
Three-pointers	15–34 · 44.1%	13–40 · 32.5%
Free throws	18–22 · 81.8%	22–26 · 84.6%
Rebounds	39	47
Assists	29	22
Turnovers	16	9
Steals	5	7
Blocks	5	7

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	+10	−4	−14
Total points	234	234	±0
NOP points	112	119	+7
MIN points	122	115	−7

Recent form before this game