2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves

Sunday, April 2, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 8–1@MIN 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	114	107	−7
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	126	105	−21

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1332	1517
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+256
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−3.3	−0.4
Games played this season	77	78
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.0	113.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.3	114.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	85.8	18.1
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1332MIN1517

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1332

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
First 67 games: +105.7
Last 10 games: −86.1

L@NOP110–127−9.4
LNYK107–123−9.2
LBOS112–126−7.0
LLAC102–117−10.7
W@UTA127–115+19.0
LCHI96–124−17.0
LOKC112–118−6.2
LNOP90–124−19.8
LSAC80–120−16.2
LSAC114–138−9.6

MIN1517

Ended last season at 1549 → started this one at 1536
First 68 games: −31.0
Last 10 games: +11.9

W@ATL136–115+22.1
LBOS102–104−4.6
L@CHI131–139−7.3
L@TOR107–122−9.6
W@NYK140–134+12.7
WATL125–124+2.7
W@GSW99–96+7.7
W@SAC119–115+8.8
L@PHX100–107−5.8
LLAL111–123−14.8

Season scoring marginPOR−3.3MIN−0.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−3.3

Scores 113.4, allows 116.6 over 77 games: −3.3 a game.

MIN−0.4

Scores 115.6, allows 116.0 over 78 games: −0.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR104.0MIN113.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

POR104.0scored, −10.1 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.3%	54.7%	−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.0%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.0%	23.8%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.212	−0.4
Everything else			−0.1

MIN113.9scored, −0.3 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.7%	+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.0%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	23.8%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.212	−0.1
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10POR121.3MIN114.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

POR121.3allowed, +7.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.3%	54.7%	−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.0%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.1%	23.8%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.212	−0.5
Everything else			+1.9

MIN114.5allowed, +0.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.7%	+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.0%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	23.8%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.255	0.212	−1.3
Everything else			+0.2

Pace, last 10average 101.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 101.3 and MIN 100.8 → average 101.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingPOR85.8MIN18.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR85.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Damian Lillard	32.5	37.1	4
Anfernee Simons	18.0	32.8	4
Jusuf Nurkić	11.8	24.3	5
Nassir Little	8.8	22.6	8
Keon Johnson	8.2	15.6	6
Cam Reddish	6.6	22.8	8

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-02 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

MIN18.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Naz Reid	18.1	21.7	8

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Mar 31 against SAC.

MIN2days

Last played Mar 31 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 31	SAC	114–138	40-85	19-38	15-23	18	9	114.0	135.3	101.0
Mar 29	SAC	80–120	30-93	9-39	11-12	14	8	77.7	116.5	103.0
Mar 27	NOP	90–124	35-90	7-33	13-15	12	6	90.9	124.0	99.5
Mar 26	OKC	112–118	39-82	14-32	20-27	18	8	109.8	116.8	101.5
Mar 24	CHI	96–124	37-86	6-31	16-18	12	8	100.0	126.5	97.0
Mar 22	@UTA	127–115	45-93	13-41	24-30	8	7	119.8	108.5	106.0
Mar 19	LAC	102–117	37-82	6-29	22-24	13	11	106.3	120.6	96.5
Mar 17	BOS	112–126	38-79	14-38	22-31	18	8	110.9	123.5	101.5
Mar 14	NYK	107–123	38-99	17-45	14-18	10	11	107.0	120.6	101.0
Mar 12	@NOP	110–127	43-88	10-33	14-20	17	10	103.8	121.0	105.5

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 31	LAL	111–123	41-95	13-39	16-19	16	12	106.7	116.0	105.0
Mar 29	@PHX	100–107	40-90	12-35	8-12	21	16	101.0	108.1	99.0
Mar 27	@SAC	119–115	44-86	9-24	22-34	6	11	124.0	119.8	96.0
Mar 26	@GSW	99–96	34-80	17-40	14-25	17	9	99.0	96.0	100.0
Mar 22	ATL	125–124	45-92	11-26	24-29	11	11	121.4	121.6	102.5
Mar 20	@NYK	140–134	51-83	14-24	24-32	15	7	134.6	128.8	104.0
Mar 18	@TOR	107–122	39-85	5-23	24-28	14	9	103.9	118.4	103.0
Mar 17	@CHI	131–139	46-100	18-42	21-31	15	14	114.9	119.8	95.2
Mar 15	BOS	102–104	37-84	12-36	16-22	13	8	107.4	110.6	94.5
Mar 13	@ATL	136–115	54-92	12-28	16-23	10	5	125.9	105.5	108.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −2 for MIN

15th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

338th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.51 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	MIN
Final score	107	105
Field goals	43–93 · 46.2%	38–79 · 48.1%
Three-pointers	9–30 · 30.0%	11–26 · 42.3%
Free throws	12–20 · 60.0%	18–23 · 78.3%
Rebounds	42	47
Assists	29	29
Turnovers	10	18
Steals	12	3
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	+12	−2	−14
Total points	240	212	−28
POR points	114	107	−7
MIN points	126	105	−21

Recent form before this game