The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

GSW 1–3@MIN 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: GSW 31 percent, MIN 69 percent. GSW Golden State Warriors 31% proj. 111 · final 119 MIN Timberwolves · home 69% proj. 118 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
GSW Golden State Warriors 111 119 +8
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 118 114 −4

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans MIN

  • Home court+2.1 MINWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.8 MINElo MIN 1601, GSW 1452; season margin MIN +5.1, GSW −1.1.
  • Player availability+2.0 GSWMIN without Anthony Edwards (33 ppg).
  • Recent form+1.8 MINLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: MIN scores 108.4 and allows 110.7; GSW scores 116.3 and allows 120.9.

Together: MIN by 7, a 69% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

MIN is 3–1, winning by 17 a game on average (scoring 122, allowing 105). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Edwards (33 ppg) is out.

GSW is 1–3, losing by 4 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 121). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 13.4% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.6, defensive rebounding −1.8.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors MIN; left favors GSW.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +4.8, Player availability −2.0, Recent form +1.8, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +7.0 for MIN. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +4.8 Player availability −2.0 Recent form +1.8 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +7.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +7.0. The 69% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputGSWMINEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14521601 +0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +219 +4.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.1+5.1 +0.5
Games played this season 44 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.3108.4 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.9110.7 +2.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.9 +0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.033.3 −2.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueMIN ptsGSW ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court218.7+2.14−2.51+4.65
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.9+1.62+0.10+1.52
Rotation points missing (home)33.3−0.85+0.24−1.09
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.41+0.49−0.90
Games played (away)4.0+0.18+0.93−0.75
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)110.7−0.46−1.09+0.63
Season scoring margin (home)5.1+0.16−0.31+0.47
Elo rating (home)1600.8−0.01−0.37+0.35
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)108.4−0.56−0.27−0.29
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)116.3+0.04+0.27−0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.03+0.21
Combined pace, last 1099.9+1.30+1.10+0.20
Season scoring margin (away)-1.1+0.15+0.07+0.08
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.03
Games played (home)4.0+0.15+0.13+0.02
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.03−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Elo rating (away)1452.0−0.03−0.03+0.00
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02±0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1452MIN16015.0 pts toward MIN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1452

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 4 games: +10.4
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
  • LMEM108–111−9.2
  • L@PHX122–131−5.2
  • W@DEN134–114+32.3

MIN1601

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 4 games: +48.0
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6
  • L@CLE125–127−4.3
Season scoring marginGSW−1.1MIN+5.10.2 pts toward GSW

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−1.1

Scores 117.2, allows 120.8 over 4 games: −3.5 a game.

20% this season (−3.5) + 80% last season (−0.6) = −1.1

MIN+5.1

Scores 122.0, allows 105.0 over 4 games: +17.0 a game.

20% this season (+17.0) + 80% last season (+2.2) = +5.1

Offensive rating, last 10GSW116.3MIN108.40.5 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW116.3scored, +1.7 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.210+1.0
Everything else+2.0

MIN108.4scored, −6.2 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.6%54.5%−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210−0.7
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10GSW120.9MIN110.72.2 pts toward MIN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

GSW120.9allowed, +6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.1%54.5%−8.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%12.2%+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.1%26.1%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else+1.0

MIN110.7allowed, −3.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210−0.3
Everything else+1.8
Pace, last 10average 99.90.2 pts toward MIN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 97.8 and MIN 102.0 → average 99.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0MIN33.32.0 pts toward GSW

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIN33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anthony Edwards33.233.74

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysMIN2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 26 against DEN.

MIN2days

Last played Oct 26 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@DEN134–11446-8522-4420-211713139.6117.596.5
Oct 24@PHX122–13141-9117-3923-321619119.6129.7101.5
Oct 23MEM108–11134-8314-4126-291918108.0112.199.5
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0
Apr 2CLE111–11841-9412-4417-201212109.9116.8101.0

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@CLE125–12749-10213-4014-231717112.6112.4101.4
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
31%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
the forecast favored MIN
12 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual −5 for MIN
11th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
54th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.18 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statGSWMIN
Final score119114
Field goals39–89 · 43.8%40–90 · 44.4%
Three-pointers11–35 · 31.4%15–45 · 33.3%
Free throws30–37 · 81.1%19–27 · 70.4%
Rebounds5342
Assists2531
Turnovers1715
Steals710
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+7−5−12
Total points229233+4
GSW points111119+8
MIN points118114−4

Recent form before this game

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at DEN W 134–114
Oct 24 at PHX L 122–131
Oct 23 vs MEM L 108–111
Oct 21 at LAL L 105–127
Apr 12 at LAC L 110–115

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at CLE L 125–127
Oct 25 vs TOR W 117–94
Oct 23 at ORL W 115–93
Oct 21 at MIA W 131–106
May 15 vs SAS L 109–139

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 13 2025-26 MIN at GSW MIN 127 – 117 GSW
Jan 26 2025-26 GSW at MIN GSW 83 – 108 MIN
Jan 25 2025-26 GSW at MIN GSW 111 – 85 MIN
Dec 12 2025-26 MIN at GSW MIN 127 – 120 GSW
May 14 2024-25 GSW at MIN GSW 110 – 121 MIN