2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets
Saturday, February 1, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
BKN 1–1@HOU 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | 104 | 110 | +6 |
| HOU Houston Rockets (home) | 117 | 98 | −19 |
Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | BKN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1341 | 1626 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +356 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −7.3 | +6.0 |
| Games played this season | 48 | 46 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 102.6 | 118.9 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 113.1 | 114.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 27.2 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingBKN1341HOU1626
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
BKN1341
- Ended last season at 1412 → started this one at 1434
- First 38 games: −88.0
- Last 10 games: −5.3
- L@UTA111–112−2.2
- W@POR132–114+19.4
- L@LAC67–126−11.8
- L@LAL101–102−1.6
- L@OKC101–127−1.7
- LNYK95–99−3.1
- LPHX84–108−13.9
- LMIA97–106−7.5
- LSAC96–110−6.6
- W@CHA104–83+23.7
HOU1626
- Ended last season at 1516 → started this one at 1512
- First 36 games: +90.0
- Last 10 games: +24.1
- WMEM120–118+3.3
- W@DEN128–108+22.3
- L@SAC127–132−7.1
- W@POR125–103+6.0
- LDET96–107−21.7
- WCLE109–108+4.2
- W@CLE135–131+9.7
- W@BOS114–112+6.8
- W@ATL100–96+4.1
- L@MEM119–120−3.5
Season scoring marginBKN−7.3HOU+6.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
BKN−7.3
Scores 105.4, allows 112.7 over 48 games: −7.3 a game.
HOU+6.0
Scores 114.4, allows 108.4 over 46 games: +6.0 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10BKN102.6HOU118.9
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).
BKN102.6scored, −10.3 vs league
| Factor | BKN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 48.0% | 54.2% | −9.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.3% | −0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.4% | 24.9% | +1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.198 | 0.193 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | −1.9 |
HOU118.9scored, +6.0 vs league
| Factor | HOU | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.7% | 54.2% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.4% | 12.3% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 33.7% | 24.9% | +4.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.202 | 0.193 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10BKN113.1HOU114.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).
BKN113.1allowed, +0.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.0% | 54.2% | −1.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.8% | 12.3% | +0.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.1% | 24.9% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.193 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
HOU114.5allowed, +1.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.9% | 54.2% | −2.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.7% | 12.3% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.2% | 24.9% | −0.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.175 | 0.193 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | −1.4 |
Pace, last 10average 97.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
BKN 95.1 and HOU 99.0 → average 97.1 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingBKN27.2HOU0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
BKN27.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Johnson | 18.3 | 28.9 | 3 |
| Noah Clowney | 8.9 | 27.7 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-02-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
HOU0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-02-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestBKN3 daysHOU2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
BKN3days
Last played Jan 29 against CHA.
HOU2days
Last played Jan 30 against MEM.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
BKN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 | @CHA | 104–83 | 39-80 | 10-32 | 16-20 | 8 | 6 | 114.3 | 92.2 | 90.5 |
| Jan 27 | SAC | 96–110 | 30-82 | 10-36 | 26-30 | 14 | 15 | 103.2 | 117.0 | 93.5 |
| Jan 25 | MIA | 97–106 | 30-80 | 14-40 | 23-26 | 14 | 8 | 99.0 | 108.2 | 98.0 |
| Jan 22 | PHX | 84–108 | 34-91 | 7-36 | 9-14 | 16 | 15 | 88.4 | 113.7 | 95.0 |
| Jan 21 | NYK | 95–99 | 32-86 | 12-40 | 19-25 | 16 | 13 | 100.0 | 104.2 | 95.0 |
| Jan 19 | @OKC | 101–127 | 37-87 | 12-43 | 15-19 | 13 | 12 | 103.1 | 129.6 | 98.0 |
| Jan 17 | @LAL | 101–102 | 37-82 | 17-38 | 10-13 | 17 | 11 | 111.0 | 112.1 | 91.0 |
| Jan 15 | @LAC | 67–126 | 25-83 | 5-28 | 12-22 | 20 | 15 | 69.8 | 129.9 | 96.5 |
| Jan 14 | @POR | 132–114 | 49-90 | 19-41 | 15-18 | 11 | 8 | 130.7 | 115.2 | 100.0 |
| Jan 12 | @UTA | 111–112 | 39-92 | 10-40 | 23-35 | 8 | 12 | 106.7 | 108.7 | 93.7 |
HOU
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 | @MEM | 119–120 | 42-97 | 13-32 | 22-28 | 12 | 19 | 121.4 | 122.4 | 98.0 |
| Jan 28 | @ATL | 100–96 | 37-79 | 7-30 | 19-20 | 21 | 6 | 99.0 | 94.1 | 101.5 |
| Jan 27 | @BOS | 114–112 | 41-92 | 17-41 | 15-21 | 7 | 12 | 121.3 | 119.1 | 94.0 |
| Jan 25 | @CLE | 135–131 | 45-82 | 13-28 | 32-45 | 11 | 14 | 137.8 | 131.0 | 99.0 |
| Jan 22 | CLE | 109–108 | 40-91 | 15-34 | 14-20 | 22 | 20 | 114.7 | 112.5 | 95.5 |
| Jan 20 | DET | 96–107 | 37-94 | 11-39 | 11-16 | 16 | 15 | 96.0 | 105.9 | 100.5 |
| Jan 18 | @POR | 125–103 | 48-108 | 14-31 | 15-22 | 12 | 23 | 119.0 | 100.0 | 104.0 |
| Jan 16 | @SAC | 127–132 | 49-93 | 12-33 | 17-24 | 14 | 12 | 121.0 | 126.9 | 104.5 |
| Jan 15 | @DEN | 128–108 | 49-94 | 17-38 | 13-17 | 8 | 14 | 137.6 | 114.9 | 93.5 |
| Jan 13 | MEM | 120–118 | 41-81 | 16-31 | 22-31 | 22 | 15 | 121.2 | 118.0 | 99.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BKN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 110 | 98 |
| Field goals | 43–87 · 49.4% | 38–95 · 40.0% |
| Three-pointers | 10–27 · 37.0% | 12–39 · 30.8% |
| Free throws | 14–21 · 66.7% | 10–15 · 66.7% |
| Rebounds | 46 | 44 |
| Assists | 24 | 18 |
| Turnovers | 10 | 10 |
| Steals | 5 | 6 |
| Blocks | 8 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Houston Rockets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (HOU) | +13 | −12 | −25 |
| Total points | 221 | 208 | −13 |
| BKN points | 104 | 110 | +6 |
| HOU points | 117 | 98 | −19 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 26 | 27 | 30 | 27 | – | 110 |
| HOU | 23 | 15 | 26 | 34 | – | 98 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27 2023-24 | HOU at BKN | HOU 104 – 106 BKN |
| Jan 3 2023-24 | BKN at HOU | BKN 101 – 112 HOU |
| Mar 29 2022-23 | HOU at BKN | HOU 114 – 123 BKN |
| Mar 7 2022-23 | BKN at HOU | BKN 118 – 96 HOU |
| Apr 5 2021-22 | HOU at BKN | HOU 105 – 118 BKN |