2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, March 29, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

SAC 5–1@BKN 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	113	99	−14
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	111	116	+5

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1322	1279
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+27
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.3	−9.5
Games played this season	75	74
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.4	100.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.4	116.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	43.3	36.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1322BKN1279

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1322

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 65 games: −184.7
Last 10 games: +7.6

WIND114–109+5.1
LCHA109–117−3.2
W@LAC118–109+23.5
WUTA116–111+4.7
LSAS104–132−5.2
LPHI118–139−12.9
WBKN126–122+4.2
L@CHA90–134−4.4
L@ORL117–121−1.8
L@ATL113–123−2.4

BKN1279

Ended last season at 1287 → started this one at 1340
First 64 games: −15.6
Last 10 games: −46.0

LDET100–138−8.7
L@ATL97–108−2.9
L@PHI97–104−2.9
LPOR95–114−11.2
LOKC92–121−4.0
LNYK92–93−1.0
L@SAC122–126−4.2
L@POR99–134−7.2
L@GSW106–109−1.8
L@LAL99–116−2.1

Season scoring marginSAC−10.3BKN−9.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−10.3

Scores 110.9, allows 121.2 over 75 games: −10.3 a game.

BKN−9.5

Scores 106.2, allows 115.7 over 74 games: −9.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAC113.4BKN100.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

SAC113.4scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.6%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.4%	26.1%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.177	0.210	−0.9
Everything else			−2.6

BKN100.3scored, −14.3 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.5%	54.6%	−7.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.3%	12.2%	−4.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	15.5%	26.1%	−4.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.210	+0.5
Everything else			+1.9

Defensive rating, last 10SAC122.4BKN116.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

SAC122.4allowed, +7.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.1%	54.6%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	26.1%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			−0.6

BKN116.7allowed, +2.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.6%	−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.6%	12.2%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.2%	26.1%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.316	0.210	−3.1
Everything else			+3.8

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 99.5 and BKN 99.8 → average 99.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingSAC43.3BKN36.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC43.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
DeMar DeRozan	20.6	30.9	10
Malik Monk	11.7	24.3	6
Russell Westbrook	11.0	28.4	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BKN36.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Josh Minott	14.9	23.9	8
Jalen Wilson	11.5	21.7	6
Danny Wolf	9.6	23.6	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-29 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestSAC1 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 28 against ATL.

BKN2days

Last played Mar 27 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 28	@ATL	113–123	45-93	12-32	11-13	15	14	116.5	126.8	97.0
Mar 26	@ORL	117–121	45-88	14-33	13-16	9	9	123.2	128.7	94.5
Mar 24	@CHA	90–134	37-91	9-28	7-11	12	8	90.9	138.1	98.0
Mar 22	BKN	126–122	43-82	14-27	26-34	16	13	134.0	127.1	95.0
Mar 19	PHI	118–139	43-89	12-32	20-29	13	14	113.5	132.4	104.5
Mar 17	SAS	104–132	41-93	14-36	8-13	8	6	104.0	132.0	100.0
Mar 15	UTA	116–111	41-85	11-36	23-28	18	12	112.6	106.7	103.5
Mar 14	@LAC	118–109	48-82	12-27	10-16	19	9	116.8	106.9	101.5
Mar 11	CHA	109–117	45-83	8-25	11-14	13	7	116.0	121.9	95.0
Mar 10	IND	114–109	41-90	7-20	25-30	11	8	106.5	103.8	106.0

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 27	@LAL	99–116	40-96	10-39	9-15	14	11	100.0	118.4	98.5
Mar 25	@GSW	106–109	39-81	12-33	16-21	17	4	103.9	105.8	102.5
Mar 23	@POR	99–134	33-80	8-29	25-29	22	5	91.7	125.2	107.5
Mar 22	@SAC	122–126	46-88	14-33	16-20	7	5	127.1	134.0	95.0
Mar 20	NYK	92–93	34-86	14-38	10-10	15	6	94.8	95.9	97.0
Mar 18	OKC	92–121	29-79	11-35	23-31	23	6	88.5	116.3	104.0
Mar 16	POR	95–114	33-86	9-34	20-29	16	10	95.0	115.2	99.5
Mar 14	@PHI	97–104	32-89	15-43	18-21	17	7	97.0	103.0	100.5
Mar 12	@ATL	97–108	34-72	12-35	17-22	20	3	99.0	108.0	99.0
Mar 10	DET	100–138	29-69	13-38	29-34	17	7	106.4	145.3	94.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

19 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual +17 for BKN

292nd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

229th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.81 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	BKN
Final score	99	116
Field goals	36–84 · 42.9%	42–85 · 49.4%
Three-pointers	10–32 · 31.3%	17–41 · 41.5%
Free throws	17–25 · 68.0%	15–20 · 75.0%
Rebounds	43	40
Assists	21	30
Turnovers	15	15
Steals	7	10
Blocks	3	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	−2	+17	+19
Total points	224	215	−9
SAC points	113	99	−14
BKN points	111	116	+5

Recent form before this game