2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

CHA 0–0@BKN 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	118	110	−8
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	109	103	−6

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

Home court+2.1 BKNWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+8.4 CHAElo BKN 1315, CHA 1611; season margin BKN −10.0, CHA +4.8.
Recent form+2.6 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: BKN scores 104.8 and allows 118.4; CHA scores 120.1 and allows 113.7.

Together: CHA by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +5 team. Their offense rebounds 33% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.8% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed +1.4, defensive rebounding +1.3.

BKN hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −10 team. Their offense rebounds 13% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors BKN; left favors CHA.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −8.2. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	CHA	BKN	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1611	1315	−0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−226		−5.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.8	−10.0	−2.0
Games played this season	0	0	−0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	120.1	104.8	−1.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.7	118.4	−0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.6		−0.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0	+0.3
Rest days	5	5	+0.1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	BKN pts	CHA pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	-226.4	−1.46	+3.93	−5.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	104.8	−1.58	−0.22	−1.36
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	118.4	+0.43	+1.59	−1.16
Season scoring margin (home)	-10.0	−0.51	+0.52	−1.03
Elo rating (home)	1315.0	−0.15	+0.80	−0.94
Season scoring margin (away)	4.8	−0.73	+0.20	−0.93
Rotation points missing (home)	0.0	+0.86	−0.07	+0.93
Rotation points missing (away)	0.0	−0.15	+0.52	−0.67
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	113.7	+0.54	−0.02	+0.56
Games played (away)	0.0	+0.10	+0.65	−0.55
Combined pace, last 10	96.6	−3.92	−3.53	−0.40
Elo rating (away)	1611.4	+0.30	−0.00	+0.30
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	120.1	+0.19	+0.46	−0.27
Home series wins	0.0	+0.32	+0.10	+0.23
Games played (home)	0.0	+0.72	+0.55	+0.17
Rest days (home)	5.0	+0.04	−0.06	+0.10
Series pressure	0.0	+0.06	−0.02	+0.09
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.04	−0.00	+0.04
Elimination game	0	±0.00	−0.01	+0.01
Rest days (away)	5.0	−0.05	−0.06	+0.01
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1611BKN13156.0 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1611

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
No games played yet this season.

BKN1315

Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
No games played yet this season.

Season scoring marginCHA+4.8BKN−10.02.3 pts toward CHA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+4.8

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+4.8) = +4.8

BKN−10.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−10.0) = −10.0

Offensive rating, last 10CHA120.1BKN104.81.6 pts toward CHA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA120.1scored, +5.5 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.5%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.0%	26.1%	+3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.181	0.210	−0.8
Everything else			+1.4

BKN104.8scored, −9.8 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	54.5%	−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.2%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	12.7%	26.1%	−6.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10CHA113.7BKN118.40.6 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA113.7allowed, −0.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	54.5%	−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.2%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	26.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.210	+1.4
Everything else			+0.6

BKN118.4allowed, +3.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.4%	54.5%	−8.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.3%	12.2%	+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.7%	26.1%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			+3.0

Pace, last 10average 96.60.4 pts toward CHA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 94.3 and BKN 98.8 → average 96.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0BKN0.00.3 pts toward BKN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestCHA5 daysBKN5 days0.1 pts toward BKN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA5days

Last played Apr 12 against NYK (192 days, capped at 5).

BKN5days

Last played Apr 12 against TOR (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 12	@NYK	110–96	39-85	19-52	13-17	17	12	118.3	102.1	93.5
Apr 10	DET	100–118	34-88	13-47	19-23	15	14	104.2	124.2	95.5
Apr 7	@BOS	102–113	38-88	16-49	10-13	12	14	112.1	122.8	91.5
Apr 5	@MIN	122–108	45-92	19-45	13-15	15	16	124.5	111.3	97.5
Apr 3	IND	129–108	46-96	24-49	13-15	9	12	130.3	109.1	99.0
Apr 2	PHX	127–107	48-93	18-49	13-15	10	11	132.3	112.6	95.5
Mar 31	@BKN	117–86	41-87	12-39	23-25	11	13	123.2	90.5	95.0
Mar 29	BOS	99–114	36-83	12-43	15-19	11	10	108.8	125.3	91.0
Mar 28	PHI	114–118	36-96	17-55	25-32	9	21	117.5	122.9	96.5
Mar 26	NYK	114–103	41-78	16-41	16-20	16	12	129.5	115.7	88.5

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 12	@TOR	101–136	35-86	9-34	22-29	15	6	101.0	136.0	100.0
Apr 10	@MIL	108–125	38-84	18-45	14-16	7	5	112.5	130.2	96.0
Apr 9	IND	94–123	37-96	8-38	12-19	10	3	90.4	118.3	104.0
Apr 7	MIL	96–90	33-75	9-26	21-23	10	0	103.2	96.8	93.0
Apr 5	WAS	121–115	43-88	15-40	20-23	11	5	122.2	116.2	99.0
Apr 3	ATL	107–141	39-79	12-28	17-20	18	1	101.9	135.6	104.5
Mar 31	CHA	86–117	28-73	7-35	23-27	14	4	90.5	123.2	95.0
Mar 29	SAC	116–99	42-85	17-41	15-20	15	8	122.1	103.1	95.5
Mar 27	@LAL	99–116	40-96	10-39	9-15	14	11	100.0	118.4	98.5
Mar 25	@GSW	106–109	39-81	12-33	16-21	17	4	103.9	105.8	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

74%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

CHA was the forecast favorite

2 pts

margin miss

forecast −9, actual −7 for BKN

120th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

125th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	BKN
Final score	110	103
Field goals	41–93 · 44.1%	36–80 · 45.0%
Three-pointers	15–48 · 31.3%	12–31 · 38.7%
Free throws	13–15 · 86.7%	19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds	44	38
Assists	26	22
Turnovers	20	22
Steals	9	7
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	−9	−7	+2
Total points	227	213	−14
CHA points	118	110	−8
BKN points	109	103	−6

Recent form before this game