2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors

Monday, November 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

BKN 0–0@GSW 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
BKN Brooklyn Nets	106	128	+22
GSW Golden State Warriors (home)	118	120	+2

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	BKN	GSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1426	1634
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+278
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−3.2	+7.6
Games played this season	17	16
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.1	112.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	118.8	109.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	33.8	14.3
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1426GSW1634

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1426

Ended last season at 1412 → started this one at 1434
First 7 games: −3.0
Last 10 games: −4.4

WMEM106–104+3.4
L@BOS104–108−1.3
L@CLE100–105−2.3
W@NOP107–105+6.4
LBOS114–139−8.5
L@NYK122–124−2.0
L@NYK104–114−4.1
WCHA116–115+2.6
L@PHI98–113−10.7
W@SAC108–103+12.1

GSW1634

Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
First 6 games: +33.2
Last 10 games: +11.0

W@WAS125–112+4.6
W@BOS118–112+12.4
L@CLE117–136−14.6
W@OKC127–116+16.3
WDAL120–117+3.7
WMEM123–118+2.2
L@LAC99–102−7.0
WATL120–97+5.4
W@NOP112–108+3.3
L@SAS94–104−15.3

Season scoring marginBKN−3.2GSW+7.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−3.2

Scores 110.6, allows 113.9 over 17 games: −3.2 a game.

85% this season (−3.2) + 15% last season (−2.9) = −3.2

GSW+7.6

Scores 117.6, allows 108.8 over 16 games: +8.8 a game.

80% this season (+8.8) + 20% last season (+2.6) = +7.6

Offensive rating, last 10BKN114.1GSW112.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

BKN114.1scored, +1.4 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	53.9%	+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.4%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	24.9%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.200	−0.2
Everything else			+0.5

GSW112.8scored, +0.2 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	53.9%	−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.4%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.7%	24.9%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.168	0.200	−0.9
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10BKN118.8GSW109.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

BKN118.8allowed, +6.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	53.9%	−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.4%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	24.9%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.200	+0.3
Everything else			−1.2

GSW109.6allowed, −3.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	53.9%	+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.4%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	24.9%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.200	−0.1
Everything else			−0.0

Pace, last 10average 98.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 93.9 and GSW 102.5 → average 98.2 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingBKN33.8GSW14.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN33.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dorian Finney-Smith	11.9	28.8	7
Noah Clowney	8.6	16.9	8
Nic Claxton	7.7	26.9	7
Ben Simmons	5.6	24.4	5

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-25 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

GSW14.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
De'Anthony Melton	14.3	23.7	3

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestBKN1 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 24 against SAC.

GSW2days

Last played Nov 23 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 24	@SAC	108–103	36-75	19-39	17-25	12	5	113.7	109.6	94.5
Nov 22	@PHI	98–113	39-79	13-37	7-7	19	6	107.7	122.8	91.5
Nov 19	CHA	116–115	42-85	18-41	14-19	13	10	118.4	118.6	97.5
Nov 17	@NYK	104–114	32-76	17-41	23-30	9	7	119.5	128.1	88.0
Nov 15	@NYK	122–124	39-89	19-46	25-28	9	10	124.5	124.0	99.0
Nov 13	BOS	114–139	40-79	19-43	15-18	12	3	117.5	143.3	97.0
Nov 11	@NOP	107–105	36-84	19-42	16-19	16	14	112.6	110.5	95.0
Nov 9	@CLE	100–105	34-76	15-43	17-18	17	10	108.7	114.1	92.0
Nov 8	@BOS	104–108	41-100	10-38	12-15	12	12	103.0	106.9	91.5
Nov 4	MEM	106–104	40-84	13-36	13-18	13	12	115.2	110.6	93.0

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 23	@SAS	94–104	36-95	14-44	8-13	10	17	102.2	114.3	91.5
Nov 22	@NOP	112–108	39-87	12-37	22-29	16	14	113.1	106.9	100.0
Nov 20	ATL	120–97	47-101	14-40	12-18	15	9	107.1	86.6	112.0
Nov 18	@LAC	99–102	37-84	16-44	9-19	19	9	96.1	100.0	102.5
Nov 15	MEM	123–118	43-98	19-46	18-25	19	14	112.8	106.3	110.0
Nov 12	DAL	120–117	45-94	14-41	16-27	12	18	116.5	112.5	103.5
Nov 10	@OKC	127–116	45-89	21-43	16-23	14	13	128.3	117.2	99.0
Nov 8	@CLE	117–136	47-98	13-42	10-14	17	11	109.3	127.1	107.0
Nov 6	@BOS	118–112	42-91	14-34	20-24	11	15	122.9	116.7	96.0
Nov 4	@WAS	125–112	44-97	12-37	25-34	6	16	120.2	108.7	103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner

the forecast favored GSW

20 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −8 for GSW

16th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

181st

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	BKN	GSW
Final score	128	120
Field goals	41–83 · 49.4%	45–93 · 48.4%
Three-pointers	20–45 · 44.4%	19–46 · 41.3%
Free throws	26–30 · 86.7%	11–17 · 64.7%
Rebounds	42	43
Assists	23	32
Turnovers	11	12
Steals	6	8
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)	+12	−8	−20
Total points	224	248	+24
BKN points	106	128	+22
GSW points	118	120	+2

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
BKN	34	24	29	41	–	128
GSW	30	37	25	28	–	120

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 24	at SAC	W 108–103
Nov 22	at PHI	L 98–113
Nov 19	vs CHA	W 116–115
Nov 17	at NYK	L 104–114
Nov 15	at NYK	L 122–124

Golden State Warriors

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 23	at SAS	L 94–104
Nov 22	at NOP	W 112–108
Nov 20	vs ATL	W 120–97
Nov 18	at LAC	L 99–102
Nov 15	vs MEM	W 123–118

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Feb 5 2023-24	GSW at BKN	GSW 109 – 98 BKN
Dec 16 2023-24	BKN at GSW	BKN 120 – 124 GSW
Jan 22 2022-23	BKN at GSW	BKN 120 – 116 GSW
Dec 21 2022-23	GSW at BKN	GSW 113 – 143 BKN
Jan 29 2021-22	BKN at GSW	BKN 106 – 110 GSW