The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 7

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, January 7, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 2–1@BKN 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 27 percent, BKN 73 percent. POR Trail Blazers 27% proj. 111 · final 134 BKN Nets · home 73% proj. 121 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 111 134 +23
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) 121 127 +6

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPORBKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13121459
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +217
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.8−1.5
Games played this season 3436
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.4112.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.7120.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 29.60.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1312BKN1459

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1312

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
  2. First 24 games: −31.6
  3. Last 10 games: −17.3
  • LGSW114–118−3.8
  • WPHX109–104+10.4
  • LWAS117–118−4.8
  • L@GSW106–126−4.5
  • WSAC130–113+22.2
  • LSAS105–118−19.3
  • WSAS134–128+5.0
  • L@PHX88–109−5.6
  • L@DAL97–126−8.1
  • L@DAL103–139−8.8

BKN1459

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1485 → started this one at 1489
  2. First 26 games: +16.1
  3. Last 10 games: −45.7
  • LNYK102–121−15.6
  • LDEN117–122−5.4
  • WDET126–115+2.4
  • W@DET118–112+3.5
  • LMIL122–144−14.2
  • L@WAS104–110−9.9
  • L@OKC108–124−4.6
  • L@NOP85–112−9.3
  • L@HOU101–112−7.4
  • WOKC124–115+14.8
Season scoring marginPOR−7.8BKN−1.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−7.8

Scores 108.2, allows 116.0 over 34 games: −7.8 a game.

BKN−1.5

Scores 114.6, allows 116.1 over 36 games: −1.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR109.4BKN112.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

POR109.4scored, −5.5 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.6%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%11.7%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%24.6%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.205−0.3
Everything else+1.1

BKN112.3scored, −2.6 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.3%54.6%−8.1
Turnovers (TOV%)8.7%11.7%+4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%24.6%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.205+0.2
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10POR118.7BKN120.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

POR118.7allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.6%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%11.7%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%24.6%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.205−0.3
Everything else+2.2

BKN120.3allowed, +5.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.1%54.6%−6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.7%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.6%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.205+0.1
Everything else+1.7
Pace, last 10average 99.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 101.0 and BKN 98.6 → average 99.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR29.6BKN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR29.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Deandre Ayton15.034.34
Jabari Walker9.821.09
Matisse Thybulle4.823.310

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Jan 5 against DAL.

BKN2days

Last played Jan 5 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 5@DAL103–13939-9513-4012-17181094.5127.5109.0
Jan 3@DAL97–12634-8713-4016-2222693.3121.2104.0
Jan 1@PHX88–10933-808-3014-1918587.1107.9101.0
Dec 29SAS134–12848-9516-2722-271414130.1123.1103.5
Dec 28SAS105–11835-10111-3624-321310104.0118.0100.5
Dec 26SAC130–11349-9816-4016-20716134.0117.796.5
Dec 23@GSW106–12638-8413-3517-25118108.2127.398.5
Dec 21WAS117–11843-9514-3017-231520117.0119.299.5
Dec 19PHX109–10439-8714-2817-191510106.9103.0101.5
Dec 17GSW114–11840-8513-3521-23139118.8121.696.5

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 5OKC124–11541-9114-3928-331514124.0113.9100.5
Jan 3@HOU101–11236-9313-4416-26815101.0113.199.5
Jan 2@NOP85–11235-9811-434-8121691.4119.193.5
Dec 31@OKC108–12438-10012-4620-31613104.9122.8102.0
Dec 29@WAS104–11039-919-2817-271016111.8117.093.5
Dec 27MIL122–14445-1017-3225-29917120.8142.6101.0
Dec 26@DET118–11241-829-2227-4397115.7109.8102.0
Dec 23DET126–11545-8610-2426-32107126.0115.0100.0
Dec 22DEN117–12243-8913-3318-261014125.8128.494.0
Dec 20NYK102–12137-10115-4713-171117102.0121.0100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
27%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored BKN
17 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −7 for BKN
16th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
289th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORBKN
Final score134127
Field goals45–95 · 47.4%46–91 · 50.5%
Three-pointers20–38 · 52.6%14–37 · 37.8%
Free throws24–30 · 80.0%21–25 · 84.0%
Rebounds3844
Assists2129
Turnovers915
Steals57
Blocks57

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)+10−7−17
Total points232261+29
POR points111134+23
BKN points121127+6

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
POR2624353019134
BKN3022412212127

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 5 at DAL L 103–139
Jan 3 at DAL L 97–126
Jan 1 at PHX L 88–109
Dec 29 vs SAS W 134–128
Dec 28 vs SAS L 105–118

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Jan 5 vs OKC W 124–115
Jan 3 at HOU L 101–112
Jan 2 at NOP L 85–112
Dec 31 at OKC L 108–124
Dec 29 at WAS L 104–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 27 2022-23 POR at BKN POR 97 – 111 BKN
Nov 17 2022-23 BKN at POR BKN 109 – 107 POR
Mar 18 2021-22 POR at BKN POR 123 – 128 BKN
Jan 10 2021-22 BKN at POR BKN 108 – 114 POR