The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

DET 4–1@BKN 0–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 74 percent, BKN 26 percent. DET Pistons 74% proj. 117 · final 110 BKN Nets · home 26% proj. 108 · final 94
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 117 110 −7
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) 108 94 −14

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DET

  • Home court+2.1 BKNWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+9.1 DETElo BKN 1289, DET 1637; season margin BKN −9.9, DET +7.0.
  • Recent form+2.8 DETLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: BKN scores 106.2 and allows 120.0; DET scores 111.6 and allows 111.0.

Together: DET by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DET is 4–1, winning by 6 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 103). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.1, offensive rebounding +2.1. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.3, free throws allowed −1.5. Jalen Duren (13 ppg) is out.

BKN is 0–4, losing by 10 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 124). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −4. Their defense lets opponents shoot 61% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 10 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3. Egor Dëmin (8 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors BKN; left favors DET.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −9.1, Recent form −2.8, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.1, Player availability +0.1, giving −9.3 for BKN. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −9.1 Recent form −2.8 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.1 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin −9.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −9.3. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDETBKNEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16371289 −0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −278 −6.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.0−9.9 −2.1
Games played this season 54 +0.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.6106.2 −0.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.0120.0 −2.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.6 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.07.8 +0.1
Rest days 23 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueBKN ptsDET ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-278.1−2.31+4.11−6.41
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)120.0+0.26+1.67−1.41
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)106.2−1.65−0.36−1.28
Elo rating (home)1288.6−0.38+0.85−1.22
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)111.0−1.23−0.07−1.16
Season scoring margin (home)-9.9−0.57+0.53−1.11
Season scoring margin (away)7.0−0.78+0.24−1.02
Rotation points missing (home)7.8+0.72−0.02+0.74
Rotation points missing (away)13.0−0.13+0.55−0.68
Combined pace, last 1098.6−1.24−1.90+0.66
Elo rating (away)1636.7+0.12−0.33+0.46
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.6+0.00−0.40+0.40
Games played (home)4.0+0.18−0.21+0.39
Home series wins0.0+0.32+0.09+0.23
Games played (away)5.0+0.12+0.32−0.20
Rest days (home)3.0+0.08−0.01+0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.08±0.00+0.08
Back-to-back (home)0+0.02−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1637BKN12897.2 pts toward DET

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1637

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
  2. This season's 5 games: +27.5
  • WBOS121–113+6.7
  • W@MIA128–111+12.1
  • W@PHI106–93+11.9
  • L@NYK97–111−8.5
  • WCHA97–89+5.3

BKN1289

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 4 games: −26.4
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
  • LIND109–136−21.5
  • L@BOS124–125−0.6
Season scoring marginDET+7.0BKN−9.91.9 pts toward DET

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+7.0

Scores 109.8, allows 103.4 over 5 games: +6.4 a game.

25% this season (+6.4) + 75% last season (+7.2) = +7.0

BKN−9.9

Scores 114.2, allows 124.0 over 4 games: −9.8 a game.

20% this season (−9.8) + 80% last season (−10.0) = −9.9

Offensive rating, last 10DET111.6BKN106.20.9 pts toward DET

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET111.6scored, −3.0 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.5%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.8%26.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.210−0.4
Everything else−0.4

BKN106.2scored, −8.4 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.5%−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.0%26.1%−4.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210+0.3
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10DET111.0BKN120.02.6 pts toward DET

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DET111.0allowed, −3.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.5%+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.2%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.210−1.5
Everything else+0.8

BKN120.0allowed, +5.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)61.3%54.5%−10.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%12.2%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210+0.1
Everything else+1.2
Pace, last 10average 98.60.7 pts toward BKN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 96.2 and BKN 101.0 → average 98.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDET13.0BKN7.80.1 pts toward BKN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET13.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Duren13.019.12

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BKN7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Egor Dëmin7.821.84

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestDET2 daysBKN3 days0.1 pts toward BKN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET2days

Last played Oct 28 against CHA.

BKN3days

Last played Oct 27 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28CHA97–8934-7613-3316-20137102.193.795.0
Oct 27@NYK97–11137-879-3714-241415100.0114.497.0
Oct 25@PHI106–9338-8714-3416-251515110.497.995.5
Oct 23@MIA128–11147-8918-3816-201912125.5107.8102.5
Oct 20BOS121–11339-8615-4028-321714119.8113.0100.5
May 17CLE94–12530-8512-3922-29141094.0125.0100.0
May 15@CLE115–9443-8216-3613-191713122.3100.094.0
May 13CLE113–11742-9511-3318-201015116.5118.288.8
May 11@CLE103–11242-8310-239-121811110.8120.493.0
May 9@CLE109–11641-919-2518-221517114.7119.696.0

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27@BOS124–12545-9717-5017-221512111.7112.6100.5
Oct 25IND109–13635-8613-3926-371510103.8129.5105.0
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0
Apr 3ATL107–14139-7912-2817-20181101.9135.6104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
74%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
7 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual −16 for BKN
120th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
88th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETBKN
Final score11094
Field goals38–90 · 42.2%31–77 · 40.3%
Three-pointers12–41 · 29.3%11–37 · 29.7%
Free throws22–28 · 78.6%21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds4150
Assists2520
Turnovers1223
Steals148
Blocks310

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)−9−16−7
Total points225204−21
DET points117110−7
BKN points10894−14

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs CHA W 97–89
Oct 27 at NYK L 97–111
Oct 25 at PHI W 106–93
Oct 23 at MIA W 128–111
Oct 20 vs BOS W 121–113

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 at BOS L 124–125
Oct 25 vs IND L 109–136
Oct 24 at CLE L 121–125
Oct 21 vs CHA L 103–110
Apr 12 at TOR L 101–136

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 10 2025-26 DET at BKN DET 138 – 100 BKN
Mar 7 2025-26 BKN at DET BKN 107 – 105 DET
Feb 1 2025-26 BKN at DET BKN 77 – 130 DET
Nov 7 2025-26 DET at BKN DET 125 – 107 BKN
Mar 1 2024-25 BKN at DET BKN 94 – 115 DET