The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

IND 1–1@BKN 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 56 percent, BKN 44 percent. IND Pacers 56% proj. 118 · final 136 BKN Nets · home 44% proj. 116 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 118 136 +18
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) 116 109 −7

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans IND

  • Home court+2.1 BKNWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+1.9 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: BKN scores 105.9 and allows 118.4; IND scores 112.8 and allows 115.1.
  • Team strength+1.7 INDElo BKN 1311, IND 1365; season margin BKN −9.5, IND −7.8.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 INDBKN 1 days of rest, IND 2. BKN on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: IND by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

IND is 1–1, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 120). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 17% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +1.6, ball security −1.1. Their defense lets opponents rebound 31% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.9.

BKN is 0–2, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 118). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3. Mikel Brown Jr. (7 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors BKN; left favors IND.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −1.9, Team strength −1.7, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability +0.0, giving −1.7 for BKN. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −1.9 Team strength −1.7 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability +0.0 Projected margin −1.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −1.7. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputINDBKNEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13651311 −0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +16 −1.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.8−9.5 +0.8
Games played this season 22 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.8105.9 −1.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.1118.4 −0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.4 +0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.07.0 +0.0
Rest days 21 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueBKN ptsIND ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court15.9−1.23+0.50−1.72
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)105.9−1.93−0.27−1.67
Season scoring margin (away)-7.8+0.84−0.81+1.66
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)118.4+0.38+1.39−1.00
Elo rating (home)1310.6−0.15+0.73−0.88
Season scoring margin (home)-9.5−0.51+0.34−0.85
Rotation points missing (home)7.0+0.63−0.08+0.71
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.16+0.53−0.70
Elo rating (away)1364.7+0.28−0.33+0.61
Games played (away)2.0+0.07+0.57−0.50
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.1+0.43+0.00+0.43
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)112.8−0.04−0.37+0.33
Rest days (home)1.0−0.21+0.01−0.23
Back-to-back (home)1−0.17+0.03−0.21
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.09+0.18
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Combined pace, last 10101.4+2.65+2.63+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Games played (home)2.0+0.43+0.43+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1365BKN13112.0 pts toward IND

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1365

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 2 games: −9.6
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8

BKN1311

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 2 games: −4.3
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
Season scoring marginIND−7.8BKN−9.50.3 pts toward BKN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−7.8

Scores 114.0, allows 120.5 over 2 games: −6.5 a game.

10% this season (−6.5) + 90% last season (−8.0) = −7.8

BKN−9.5

Scores 112.0, allows 117.5 over 2 games: −5.5 a game.

10% this season (−5.5) + 90% last season (−10.0) = −9.5

Offensive rating, last 10IND112.8BKN105.91.3 pts toward IND

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND112.8scored, −1.8 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.5%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.1%26.1%−4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.210−0.8
Everything else+2.4

BKN105.9scored, −8.7 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.6%26.1%−4.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210+0.4
Everything else+1.2
Defensive rating, last 10IND115.1BKN118.40.6 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND115.1allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.5%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.4%26.1%−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.210+0.7
Everything else+2.6

BKN118.4allowed, +3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.5%−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%12.2%+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+1.4
Pace, last 10average 101.4no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 103.2 and BKN 99.5 → average 101.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingIND0.0BKN7.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BKN7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mikel Brown Jr.7.019.92

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysBKN1 days0.5 pts toward IND

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Oct 23 against DAL.

BKN1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 24 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0
Apr 3@CHA108–12943-9315-367-101110109.1130.399.0
Apr 1@CHI145–12658-10220-489-10136134.3114.5109.0
Mar 29MIA135–11853-9218-3911-13113129.8114.6103.5

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0
Apr 3ATL107–14139-7912-2817-20181101.9135.6104.5
Mar 31CHA86–11728-737-3523-2714490.5123.295.0
Mar 29SAC116–9942-8517-4115-20158122.1103.195.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner
IND was the forecast favorite
25 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual −27 for BKN
67th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
16th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDBKN
Final score136109
Field goals49–85 · 57.6%35–86 · 40.7%
Three-pointers21–43 · 48.8%13–39 · 33.3%
Free throws17–22 · 77.3%26–37 · 70.3%
Rebounds4040
Assists3425
Turnovers1415
Steals713
Blocks43

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)−2−27−25
Total points234245+11
IND points118136+18
BKN points116109−7

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs DAL L 105–121
Oct 21 at NOP W 123–120
Apr 12 vs DET L 121–133
Apr 10 vs PHI L 94–105
Apr 9 at BKN W 123–94

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 at CLE L 121–125
Oct 21 vs CHA L 103–110
Apr 12 at TOR L 101–136
Apr 10 at MIL L 108–125
Apr 9 vs IND L 94–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 9 2025-26 IND at BKN IND 123 – 94 BKN
Feb 11 2025-26 IND at BKN IND 115 – 110 BKN
Nov 5 2025-26 BKN at IND BKN 112 – 103 IND
Mar 22 2024-25 BKN at IND BKN 103 – 108 IND
Mar 20 2024-25 BKN at IND BKN 99 – 105 IND