The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 27

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 0–3@BOS 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 16 percent, BOS 84 percent. BKN Nets 16% proj. 106 · final 124 BOS Celtics · home 84% proj. 120 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 106 124 +18
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 120 125 +5

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 84% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans BOS

  • Home court+2.1 BOSWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+9.8 BOSElo BOS 1608, BKN 1289; season margin BOS +7.8, BKN −10.4.
  • Recent form+2.5 BOSLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: BOS scores 115.2 and allows 110.1; BKN scores 104.1 and allows 121.0.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 BKNBOS 1 days of rest, BKN 2. BOS on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: BOS by 14, a 84% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

BOS is 2–1, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 108). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.3% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.2, getting to the line −1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.6, forcing turnovers −1.0. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN is 0–3, losing by 13 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 124). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 62% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 11 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.9.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors BOS; left favors BKN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +9.8, Recent form +2.5, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, giving +14.1 for BOS. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +9.8 Recent form +2.5 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Projected margin +14.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +14.1. The 84% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBKNBOSEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12891608 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +389 +7.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.4+7.8 +2.2
Games played this season 33 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 104.1115.2 +1.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.0110.1 +2.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0 −1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 21 −0.4
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueBOS ptsBKN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court388.5+4.93−2.82+7.74
Season scoring margin (away)-10.4+0.95−0.71+1.66
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)121.0+1.75+0.13+1.63
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)104.1−0.01−1.22+1.21
Combined pace, last 1098.0−2.61−1.58−1.03
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.76−0.14+0.90
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.42+0.48−0.90
Games played (away)3.0+0.06+0.87−0.81
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)110.1−0.65−1.20+0.55
Season scoring margin (home)7.8+0.16−0.38+0.53
Elo rating (away)1289.2+0.18−0.27+0.46
Rest days (home)1.0−0.29+0.05−0.34
Home series wins0.0+0.30+0.03+0.28
Elo rating (home)1607.6+0.01−0.23+0.24
Back-to-back (home)1−0.13+0.03−0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)115.2+0.08−0.05+0.13
Games played (home)3.0+0.39+0.45−0.06
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.02−0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1289BOS16088.4 pts toward BOS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1289

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 3 games: −25.8
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
  • LIND109–136−21.5

BOS1608

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 3 games: +6.3
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
  • WNYK107–103+7.1
  • WCHI134–99+5.9
Season scoring marginBKN−10.4BOS+7.81.3 pts toward BOS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−10.4

Scores 111.0, allows 123.7 over 3 games: −12.7 a game.

15% this season (−12.7) + 85% last season (−10.0) = −10.4

BOS+7.8

Scores 118.0, allows 107.7 over 3 games: +10.3 a game.

15% this season (+10.3) + 85% last season (+7.3) = +7.8

Offensive rating, last 10BKN104.1BOS115.21.3 pts toward BOS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN104.1scored, −10.5 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.6%26.1%−4.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2360.210+0.8
Everything else+0.6

BOS115.2scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210−1.1
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10BKN121.0BOS110.12.2 pts toward BOS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN121.0allowed, +6.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)61.6%54.5%−10.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.3
Everything else+1.2

BOS110.1allowed, −4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%54.5%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%26.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 98.01.0 pts toward BKN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 100.5 and BOS 95.5 → average 98.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBKN0.0BOS0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBKN2 daysBOS1 days0.5 pts toward BKN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN2days

Last played Oct 25 against IND.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 26 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25IND109–13635-8613-3926-371510103.8129.5105.0
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0
Apr 3ATL107–14139-7912-2817-20181101.9135.6104.5
Mar 31CHA86–11728-737-3523-2714490.5123.295.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26CHI134–9946-9321-4421-292419126.492.5106.5
Oct 23NYK107–10340-8715-3912-161010116.3110.892.5
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5
Apr 30@PHI93–10636-8612-419-1613893.0107.199.5
Apr 28PHI97–11336-8911-3914-231215103.2120.294.0
Apr 26@PHI128–9642-8724-5320-281214139.1102.193.0
Apr 24@PHI108–10036-8120-4716-171715121.3112.489.0
Apr 21PHI97–11135-8913-5014-181118107.8126.189.0
Apr 19PHI123–9145-9016-4417-2285126.893.897.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
84%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual +1 for BOS
143rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
49th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.18 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNBOS
Final score124125
Field goals45–97 · 46.4%42–93 · 45.2%
Three-pointers17–50 · 34.0%11–41 · 26.8%
Free throws17–22 · 77.3%30–38 · 78.9%
Rebounds4847
Assists2632
Turnovers1514
Steals95
Blocks72

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+14+1−13
Total points226249+23
BKN points106124+18
BOS points120125+5

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs IND L 109–136
Oct 24 at CLE L 121–125
Oct 21 vs CHA L 103–110
Apr 12 at TOR L 101–136
Apr 10 at MIL L 108–125

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs CHI W 134–99
Oct 23 vs NYK W 107–103
Oct 20 at DET L 113–121
May 2 vs PHI L 100–109
Apr 30 at PHI L 93–106

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 27 2025-26 BKN at BOS BKN 111 – 148 BOS
Jan 23 2025-26 BOS at BKN BOS 130 – 126 BKN
Nov 21 2025-26 BKN at BOS BKN 113 – 105 BOS
Nov 18 2025-26 BOS at BKN BOS 113 – 99 BKN
Mar 18 2024-25 BKN at BOS BKN 96 – 104 BOS