The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 1–5@NYK 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 20 percent, NYK 80 percent. BKN Nets 20% proj. 105 · final 90 NYK Knicks · home 80% proj. 117 · final 103
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 105 90 −15
NYK New York Knicks (home) 117 103 −14

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NYK

  • Home court+2.1 NYKWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.7 NYKElo NYK 1674, BKN 1299; season margin NYK +5.4, BKN −9.3.
  • Player availability+0.5 NYKBKN without Egor Dëmin (8 ppg).
  • Recent form+0.4 NYKLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: NYK scores 110.4 and allows 110.1; BKN scores 103.6 and allows 115.5.

Together: NYK by 12, a 80% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NYK is 2–4, losing by 1 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 108). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +2.3, forcing turnovers −1.1.

BKN is 1–5, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 116). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −3, ball security −1.7. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.4, defensive rebounding +1.1. Egor Dëmin (8 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NYK; left favors BKN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +7.7, Player availability +0.5, Recent form +0.4, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.3, giving +11.3 for NYK. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +7.7 Player availability +0.5 Recent form +0.4 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.3 Projected margin +11.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +11.3. The 80% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBKNNYKEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12991674 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +445 +6.0
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.3+5.4 +1.8
Games played this season 66 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 103.6110.4 +0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.5110.1 +0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.5 −0.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.80.0 +0.5
Rest days 13 +0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNYK ptsBKN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court445.0+3.15−2.86+6.01
Season scoring margin (away)-9.3+0.73−0.81+1.54
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.94−0.14+1.08
Combined pace, last 1098.5−1.93−1.17−0.76
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)110.1−0.65−1.30+0.66
Rotation points missing (away)7.8−0.06+0.51−0.57
Games played (away)6.0+0.18+0.69−0.51
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)103.6−0.86−1.31+0.45
Season scoring margin (home)5.4+0.03−0.26+0.29
Elo rating (home)1674.2+0.08−0.21+0.29
Home series wins0.0+0.30+0.03+0.27
Elo rating (away)1299.3+0.10−0.17+0.27
Rest days (home)3.0+0.11−0.08+0.19
Games played (home)6.0−0.10+0.08−0.17
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.5+0.22+0.05+0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.4−0.25−0.13−0.12
Rest days (away)1.0+0.05+0.01+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.02+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1299NYK16746.6 pts toward NYK

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1299

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 6 games: −15.7
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
  • LIND109–136−21.5
  • L@BOS124–125−0.6
  • LDET94–110−3.9
  • W@IND98–90+14.6

NYK1674

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
  2. This season's 6 games: −40.8
  • LPHI100–106−16.0
  • L@BOS103–107−7.1
  • LORL102–111−19.8
  • WDET111–97+8.5
  • W@CHI133–127+2.5
  • L@PHI93–98−8.9
Season scoring marginBKN−9.3NYK+5.41.1 pts toward NYK

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−9.3

Scores 108.2, allows 116.0 over 6 games: −7.8 a game.

30% this season (−7.8) + 70% last season (−10.0) = −9.3

NYK+5.4

Scores 107.0, allows 107.7 over 6 games: −0.7 a game.

30% this season (−0.7) + 70% last season (+7.9) = +5.4

Offensive rating, last 10BKN103.6NYK110.40.3 pts toward NYK

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN103.6scored, −11.0 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.8%54.5%−7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.5%26.1%−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.210+0.8
Everything else+0.4

NYK110.4scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%26.1%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.210−0.5
Everything else+1.6
Defensive rating, last 10BKN115.5NYK110.10.8 pts toward NYK

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN115.5allowed, +0.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.2%54.5%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.2%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.6%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.210−0.2
Everything else+1.4

NYK110.1allowed, −4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.9%26.1%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210+0.1
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 98.50.8 pts toward BKN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 100.0 and NYK 96.9 → average 98.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBKN7.8NYK0.00.5 pts toward NYK

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Egor Dëmin7.821.84

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestBKN1 daysNYK3 days0.3 pts toward NYK

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against IND.

NYK3days

Last played Oct 30 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1@IND98–9030-7313-3925-31157106.597.892.0
Oct 30DET94–11031-7711-3721-2623992.2108.9101.5
Oct 27@BOS124–12545-9717-5017-221512111.7112.6100.5
Oct 25IND109–13635-8613-3926-371510103.8129.5105.0
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@PHI93–9835-8613-4110-141314103.3108.990.0
Oct 28@CHI133–12747-10522-4817-201216127.9122.1104.0
Oct 27DET111–9738-8812-3623-281819114.4100.097.0
Oct 25ORL102–11138-939-3817-241412102.0112.199.5
Oct 23@BOS103–10736-8016-4015-211612110.8116.392.5
Oct 20PHI100–10635-9411-3319-27141498.0103.9102.0
Jun 10SAS107–10636-7815-3220-28138115.1112.893.5
Jun 8SAS111–11540-8813-3718-221312119.4123.793.0
Jun 5@SAS105–10437-8915-3816-211210108.2105.198.0
Jun 3@SAS105–9539-9411-3616-18810105.096.099.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
80%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual +13 for NYK
133rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNNYK
Final score90103
Field goals29–76 · 38.2%31–75 · 41.3%
Three-pointers13–38 · 34.2%17–44 · 38.6%
Free throws19–27 · 70.4%24–29 · 82.8%
Rebounds3843
Assists2024
Turnovers1315
Steals78
Blocks75

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+12+13+1
Total points222193−29
BKN points10590−15
NYK points117103−14

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 at IND W 98–90
Oct 30 vs DET L 94–110
Oct 27 at BOS L 124–125
Oct 25 vs IND L 109–136
Oct 24 at CLE L 121–125

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at PHI L 93–98
Oct 28 at CHI W 133–127
Oct 27 vs DET W 111–97
Oct 25 vs ORL L 102–111
Oct 23 at BOS L 103–107

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 20 2025-26 NYK at BKN NYK 93 – 92 BKN
Jan 21 2025-26 BKN at NYK BKN 66 – 120 NYK
Nov 24 2025-26 NYK at BKN NYK 113 – 100 BKN
Nov 9 2025-26 BKN at NYK BKN 98 – 134 NYK
Apr 13 2024-25 NYK at BKN NYK 113 – 105 BKN